The New York Giants (2-9) and Detroit Lions (6-4) face off in NFL Week 12. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Lions are favored by -13 on the spread over the Giants (Lions -13); the over/under is set at 50.5. The Lions are -800 moneyline favorites and the Giants are +550 underdogs.
Let's get into my Giants vs Lions prediction for Week 12 on Sunday, Nov. 23.
Giants vs Lions Prediction
- Giants vs Lions pick: Over 50
My Giants vs Lions best bet is on the total going over 50 points. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Giants vs Lions Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Giants vs Lions Week 12 Preview
New York Giants Betting Preview
Jameis Winston will get the start under center for the Giants once again today, and I love that as an over backer.
Winston has always brought a level of volatility to each game he plays in. He plays an aggressive style and he can make throws downfield that generate points quickly.
There will be more pass attempts from this offense with Winston running the show than would be the case if Jaxson Dart had returned.
Winston was also credited with a 9.1% turnover-worthy throw rate last week against Green Bay, the highest for any single quarterback that has played a full game this year.
Furthermore, Lions head coach Dan Campbell unleashes Jahmyr Gibbs by using outside zone runs at an extremely high rate. No team in the league defends outside zone worse than the Giants.
Detroit Lions Betting Preview
The Lions have played four home games this season and three of those games have gone over the posted total.
Backing the over indoors in Detroit on the fast-track of Ford Field will rarely net a loss on investment at season’s end. The reason for this is quite simple — on a handful of occasions per season, this version of the Lions offense explodes for a bevy of points that gets bettors most of the way to the total by themselves.
Detroit is averaging 34.2 points per game at home this season and now it will welcome the Giants to Ford Field.
The Lions are the best team in the league when it comes to marrying the run with play-action pass, which spells disaster for this New York defense. The Giants allow 8.3 yards per attempt on play-action plays.
New York runs the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. Jared Goff is the league’s highest-rated passer against man coverage this season with a rating of 129.1.
We already know Goff thrives inside the friendly confines of Ford Field, but very few matchups would create an environment as good as the one he will find himself in today.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off the most inefficient game of his career, but he has torched man coverage historically. St. Brown has averaged an astounding 3.0 yards per route run against man defense, commanding a target share above 40%.
The Giants do not have the personnel to slow down the Lions’ top target; slot corner Andru Phillips ranks 83rd out of 110 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus.
The Lions will have their chances to create a short field for their offense or put points up on the board with a defensive score in an instant.
Giants vs Lions Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Giants offense didn’t put up gaudy numbers last week in a close loss to Green Bay, but that was due to the 38 rushing plays they called. Those runs generated just 3.7 yards per carry.
New York will not have the luxury of calling that many runs against the Lions. The Giants defense simply cannot hold up versus the Detroit offense.
I expect the Lions to jump out to an early lead and never look back. It wouldn’t shock me to see Winston approach 40 passes in an attempt to bring his team back in the second half.
I’m surprised oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this total with news Winston is making his second consecutive start. This total should not be below the key number of 51.
Pick: Over 50
Spread
I don't see value in the spread today.
Moneyline
I'm also not betting on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
As mentioned, with the Giants' man coverage issues and Goff's ability, I expect a high-scoring game in Ford Field.
