NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Updated Odds, ATS Bets for 12 Games, In-Depth Matchup Breakdowns

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Updated Odds, ATS Bets for 12 Games, In-Depth Matchup Breakdowns article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry and Trey Lance.

NFL Week 5 continues Sunday morning, and as always, Chris Raybon broke down every game on the main slate for DFS and betting purposes.

If you can only read a few things before betting the entire NFL slate, this is a great place to start.

Week 5 NFL Previews

Click on a matchup to skip to that preview
Dolphins at Buccaneers
1 p.m. ET
Eagles at Panthers
1 p.m. ET
Saints at Football Team
1 p.m. ET
Titans at Jaguars
1 p.m. ET
Lions at Vikings
1 p.m. ET
Broncos at Steelers
1 p.m. ET
Packers at Bengals
1 p.m. ET
Patriots at Texans
1 p.m. ET
Bears at Raiders
4:05 p.m. ET
Browns at Chargers
4:05 p.m. ET
Giants at Cowboys
4:25 p.m. ET
49ers at Cardinals
4:25 p.m. ET


Dolphins at Buccaneers

Dolphins Odds +10
Buccaneers Odds -10
Moneyline +350 / -475
Over/Under 48
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

Per our Action Labs data, Tom Brady is 61-35-2 (64%) in his career off an ATS loss, but Brady doesn’t play cornerback. Dolphins coach Brian Flores is 7-3 ATS off a multi-game losing streak and is familiar with Brady from their days in New England, so this game is a pass for me.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Mike Gesicki is my top cash-game play at tight end against a Bucs defense that allowed the third-most catches to tight ends. Gesicki has accounted for 21% of Jacoby Brissett’a targets and 24% of his completions compared to 10% of Tua Tagovailoa’s targets and none of his completions this season.

With Will Fuller (finger) out (again…), Jaylen Waddle is also a nice GPP play against the Bucs’ banged up secondary. Waddle is averaging 6.3 catches on 7.5 targets per game this season. The explosive rookie could be used on short passes as an extension of the run game against a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing an NFL-low 47.5 yards per game.

For those same reasons, the three-way quagmire of Malcolm Brown, Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed is obviously a fade. Play the blitz-happy Bucs defense against Brissett instead.  The Dolphins are second in man coverage snaps.

Among Tampa Bay’s top three wideouts, Antonio Brown (52.4%) has seen a higher percentage of his targets come against zone coverage than Chris Godwin (42.9%) and Mike Evans (40.5%). Godwin and Evans are still playable in what should be a more concentrated target share with Rob Gronkowksi (rib) out, but don’t sleep on the Tom Brady-to-AB connection.

Giovani Bernard will likely return, but Leonard Fournette should still dominate backfield usage against a Dolphins defense that is ranked 20th in rushing DVOA.

  • Cash Plays: Mike Gesicki
  • GPP Plays: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Bucs DST, Jaylen Waddle

Eagles at Panthers

Eagles Odds +3
Panthers Odds -3
Moneyline +145 / -165
Over/Under 45.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

The Panthers are blitzing at the second-highest rate (40.9%) this season, which should work in favor of Jalen Hurts, who is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt with eight TDs and one interception on 98 career pass attempts when blitzed. The Eagles played the 49ers, Cowboys and Chiefs while the Panthers played the Jets, the Saints dealing with COVID issues and Texans in their first three games, so perceptions of the two teams are somewhat warped.

It’s also worth noting that this has historically been a great bounce-back spot for a team like the Eagles, as road dogs on three-game losing streaks that open +3 to +6 have covered at a 62% rate since 2003.


Pick: Eagles +3 (to +3)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Hurts should continue to put up top-tier production against Carolina’s blitz happy defense and is a top GPP play. The Panthers rank 32nd in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs, so DeVonta Smith is the ideal stacking partner with Hurts if you’re not playing him solo.

The Panthers allowed 210 rushing yards to the Cowboys last week, but Miles Sanders is averaging only 9.4 carries per game and will likely get overtaken by rookie Kenny Gainwell at some point in the not too distant future.

The Eagles have played zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and 52.4% of Robby Anderson’s targets have come against zone coverage. D.J. Moore should eat against an Eagles defense that ranks 31st in DVOA versus WR1s, but Anderson should be involved again a week after seeing a season-high 11 targets.

Chuba Hubbard is a post-hype GPP play versus an Eagles defense that has allowed 131.0 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs over the past three weeks. Hubbard will be volatile, however, as he ran a route on only 22% of Sam Darnold’s drop backs last week. With an NFL-leading five rushing TDs, Darnold is also officially in the TD vulture conversation. He’s too pricey this week for me, though.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith


Saints at Football Team

Saints Odds -2.5
Football Team Odds +2.5
Moneyline -150 / +130
Over/Under 43
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

This is a great bounce-back for the Saints against a banged-up Washington Football Team that is missing tackle Brandon Scherff (out – knee), tight end Logan Thomas (hamstring) and linebacker Jon Bostic (IR – pectoral), among others.

Saints head coach Sean Payton 48-26 (65%) ATS off a loss in his career.

It’s worth noting that that includes a 3-1 record without Drew Brees, and a 1-0 record so far with Jameis Winston. And Payton has been even better on the road off a loss, going 25-10 (71%) ATS and covering by average of 5.8 points per game.

Pick: Saints -2 or better


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Washington’s defense is ranked 31st in DVOA on passes to running backs, so I’d expect Alvin Kamara to rebound from his zero-catch game last week. He’s a great stack with the Saints DST against Washington’s banged up offense.

The Saints have played the most man coverage in the league, and Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown are the only two Washington receivers with more than five targets versus man coverage. McLaurin could be locked up by Marshon Lattimore, while Brown is out, leaving Curtis Samuel to soak up targets (Adam Humphries has been used more frequently in zone coverage looks).

Antonio Gibson is banged up, so this is a week to fire up J.D. McKissic, who may also be one of the team’s top targets in this matchup if McLaurin can’t shake Lattimore.

Ricky Seals-Jones will likely inherit most of the 90% plus snap share Logan Thomas was seeing and is a dart throw option at TE.

  • Cash Plays: Curtis Samuel
  • GPP Plays: Alvin Kamara, Saints DST, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones


Titans at Jaguars

Titans Odds -4.5
Jaguars Odds +4.5
Moneyline -200 / +170
Over/Under 49
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

Week 4 marked the first time Urban Meyer covered the spread, but I bet he wishes he covered his ass instead. I’m not going to be the moral police here, but I would like to point out that every silly Meyer decision makes it more likely that this is a man who just makes silly decisions. Silly decisions cost teams games, and covers. And it’s been 10 days since the Jags last played, so whatever mojo they had in their almost-win is probably gone. I’m not saying bet on the Titans, I’m just saying don’t bet the Jags.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

In nine games as a road favorite since the beginning of 2019, Derrick Henry is averaging 26.2 carries for 147.4 yards and 1.56 rushing TDs compared to 21.5/106.6/0.88 in all other spots. The Jags run defense has been respectable, ranking 14th in DVOA, but it’s all about volume with Henry, who is averaging 32.0 carries (and 3.7 receptions!) over the past three weeks.

A.J. Brown is off the injury report and should feast on a jaguars defense that is ranked 32nd in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers. Brown should feast on the Jags and provide leverage off Henry.  James Robinson upped his snap count to 95% last week. His carries have increased from five to 11 to 15 to 18 in Weeks 1-4. He’s cash-viable against a Titans defense that is ranked 24th in rushing DVOA.

Laviska Shenault has seen at least seven targets in three of four games and should see his workload increase with D.J. Chark going on IR. With Chark going down last week, Shenault posted season highs in percentage of routes lined up out wide (30%), aDOT (13.4), and receiving yards (99).

  • Cash Plays: Derrick Henry, James Robinson, Laviska Shenault
  • GPP Plays: A.J. Brown, Marvin Jones


Lions at Vikings

Lions Odds +10
Vikings Odds -10
Moneyline +350 / -475
Over/Under 49.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

This is a smash spot for the Vikings and head coach Mike Zimmer 32-15 (68%) ATS off loss.

That record includes a 4-0 ATS mark as favorite of more than seven points. MIN 8th in pressure rate, Goff 56.8 rating under r de TD. DET w/o best O-lineman (Ragnow) & best pass rusher (R. Okwara).

Pick: Vikings -10 (to -10)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

The Lions are another zone-heavy team, lining up in Cover 0/Cover 1/man Cover 2 on only 22 pass snaps. While K.J. Osborn (nine) is third behind Jefferson and Thielen in man coverage targets, Tyler Conklin is third in zone coverage looks (11). The Lions rank dead last in DVOA on passes to TEs. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen are high-upside GPP options as always, but Conklin is an underrated GPP leverage play off the rest of the Vikings passing game. Dalvin Cook would be a nice pivot off Henry as long as he plays, but he’s dicey because the Vikings could rest him.

With TJ Hockenson banged up, the only Lion I’m interested in is D’Andre Swift. The Vikings DST Is my top cash game play and could end up outscoring every Lions skill player.

UPDATE: Alexander Mattison will start for Cook and becomes a top-three RB play and a must-play in cash games.

  • Cash Plays: Vikings DST, UPDATE: Alexander Mattison
  • GPP Plays: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferon, Adam Thielen, Tyler Conklin, D’Andre Swift
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Broncos at Steelers

Broncos Odds -1.5
Steelers Odds +1.5
Moneyline -130/ +110
Over/Under 39
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

After running just four times in the second half last week in a 23-7 loss to the Ravens, you can bet Broncos head coach Vic Fangio wants offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur to run the ball more early in this one — even if he probably shouldn’t against a Steelers defense that ranks sixth in rushing DVOA. With the passing game missing wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and tight end Albert Okweubunam — not to mention wide receiver Courtland Sutton’s rolled ankle in Friday practice that has left him questionable to play — Shurmur may have no choice to take the air out of the football.

This makes it a great first-half under spot. Under Fangio, first-half unders are 15-3 on the road.

Even with Teddy Bridgewater clearing the concussion protocol and owning a ridiculous 23-3 ATS record on the road, I don’t trust the banged up Broncos offense in this spot. The Steelers have just as good a defense as Denver and the home-field advantage. Even though Ben Roethlisberger’s declining performance and a substandard offensive line are making the Steelers a tough watch, I still think they’re a good play in this spot.

In Mike Tomlin’s career, the Steelers have covered 56% of the time coming off of a loss, and 7% of the time as an underdog after Week 2.

Pick: Steelers +1.5 (to -2), Under 20 1H (to 19)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Denver has played man coverage at a top-five rate. Chase Claypool (32.1%) has seen a higher percentage of his targets come against man than Diontae Johnson (28.6%) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (25.0%), making Claypool an interesting contrarian play.

Najee Harris is seeing Chrstian McCaffrey-like usage, but I’d rather pay up elsewhere with him facing a Broncos defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (202) and fewest receiving yards (45) to opposing RBs.

For Denver, this is too tough of a spot to rely on one of the committee of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, even if we do expect a high-volume run game. With Sutton banged up, this should be a Tim Patrick-Noah Fant game.

This game is tied with Patriots-Texans for lowest total on the board, so both DSTs are also in play.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, Broncos DST, Chase Claypool, Steelers DST


Packers at Bengals

Packers Odds -3
Bengals Odds +3
Moneyline -155 / +135
Over/Under 51
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

This is a pros vs. Joes game, with 67% of bets on the Packers but 57% of money on the Bengals. I like the Bengals, but Aaron Rodgers is 29-18-1 (62%) ATS against the AFC, including 6-3 under head coach Matt LaFleur, so I’m passing on this one.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, Allen Lazard

  • Cash Plays: Davante Adams, Samaje Perine
  • GPP Plays: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd

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Patriots at Texans

Patriots Odds -7.5
Texans Odds +7.5
Moneyline -400 / +300
Over/Under 39.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

Disgusting under alert: The Patriots are averaging 17.8 points per game (27th), while the Texans are at 16.8 (30th), including just 10.0 against non-Jaguars opponents and 4.5 points per game in Davis Mills’ two starts.

With an offensive line down right guard Shaq Mason (abdomen) and right tackle Trent Brown (calf), while left tackle isaiah Wynn and left guard Mike Onwenu have spent the entire week on the COVID-19 reserve and questionable to play, Bill Belichick isn’t going play play aggressive on offense against a point-average Texans offense.

This is business as usual for Belichick on the road, as Patriots road unders are 28-13 (66%) since 2016.

It’s also worth noting that unders when the home team is coming off a shutout are 19-10 since 2010.

Pick: Under 40 (to 37)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

After calling a game that featured 46 dropbacks and eight runs against the Bucs vaunted run defense and despite his rookie QB, you can bet Bill Belichick will do a complete 180 against a Houston defense that is ranked eighth in DVOA against the pass but 31st vs. the run. This is a smash spot for Damien Harris, who should shred a Texans defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots’ banged-up offensive line is a concern, but this should be a run it three times and punt kind of game plan for Belichick and the Patriots should still see some short fields opposite Davis Mills, so Harris has 30-carry, multiple-TD-type upside in this spot. If there weren’t so many other cheap options at RB, Harris would be viable in cash games. He’s still a top GPP play.

The Texans are averaging 4.5 points, 127.5 passing yards, and 45.0 rushing yards in Davis Mills’ two starts. Now, he plays a Belichick defense for the first time. I’m not hesitating to pay up to stack Harris with the Patriots DST.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: Damien Harris, Patriots DST

Bears at Raiders

Bears Odds +5.5
Raiders Odds -5.5
Moneyline +190 / -235
Over/Under 45.5
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

Both of these teams have started slow this season, with each averaging just 7.8 points per game in the first half. Both defenses are above average, with the Bears eighth in DVOA and the Raiders 15th, so I expect that trend to continue.

Under head coach Matt Nagy, Bears first half unders are 37-14 (73%) when the total is 24 or less.

That mark includes a 20-7 (73%) under record on the road, and a perfect 4-0 mark this season.

Pick: Under 22.5 1H (to 20)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Damien Williams has out-snapped Khalil Herbert 71-10, so far this season, suggesting he could approach the 80% snap levels that David Montgomery (out) reached in Week 2 (80%) and Week 3 (82%). Williams is a top cash play against a Raiders defense on a short week that slipped to 18th in rushing DVOA and 22nd in DVOA on passes to RBs after getting obliterated for 189 scrimmage yards and two TDs by Chargers backs on Monday.

Williams is stackle with the Bears DST, as the Raiders are just 20th in pass-blocking efficiency and have allowed 54 pressures, tied for sixth-most.

Raiders cornerback Casey Hayward has played at a shutdown level and Nate Hobbs has played well, but they still have to account for the absence of Trayvon Mullen (toe) and Damon Annette (groin). Heyward will likely match up on Allen Robinson, so I’d look for another potential big game from Darnell Mooeny, who Justin Fields was able to connect with for 5/125/0 last week thanks to increased max-protection schemes.

This could be another slow game for Derek Carr, who faces a top-eight pass defense by DVOA for the second week in a row, but it shouldn’t affect Hunter Renfrow, who has caught at least five passes in every game. Chicago has been stronger on the outside but their weak link at cornerback is Duke Shelley. Chicago also plays mostly zone, and Renfrow has caught 12-of-14 targets against zone compared to 7-of-12 targets vs. man. Three different slot receivers have already posted six-plus catches against the Bears: Cooper Kupp (seven) in Week 1, Tyler Boyd (seven) in Week 2 and Amon-Ra St. Brown (six) in Week 4.

Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley tends to have success against rookie QBs, so I like Josh Jacobs and the Raiders DST as a contrarian stack. Jacobs saw 18 touches on a 63% snap count in his first game back last week, and he already has a multiple-TD game this season.

  • Cash Plays: Damien Williams, Hunter Renfrow
  • GPP Plays: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Bears DST, Josh Jacobs, Raiders DST


Browns at Chargers

Browns Odds +2.5
Chargers Odds -2.5
Moneyline +115 / -135
Over/Under 47
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

This game is a toss-up between two teams that could meet again in the playoffs. Both teams are top-six in pressure rate, and both quarterbacks average 5.1 yards per attempt or fewer against pressure, so I lean under. The Chargers have given up the fifth-fewest explosive passes (seven, 5%) though they are 24th in explosive run rate allowed (14, 13%), which is what this game could come down to. This game will be fun to watch, but I don’t see an edge to betting on it.

Pick: Lean Under 46.5


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

With Baker Mayfield struggling and facing a Chargers scheme that likes to limit explosive passing plays, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should still lead the way for the Browns against a Chargers run defense that improved last week but still ranks 25th in DVOA, compared to fourth against the pass. Until Mayfield, who suffered a partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder earlier this year, starts playing better, I’d rather play the opposing DST against him than fire up Odell Beckham in a low-volume pass offense.

Justin Herbert will face a Browns defense that is ranked 13th in pass DVOA and fourth in pressure rate (30.1%). In order to protect tackles Rashawn Slater and Storm Norton from Myles Garrett and company, expect a lot of the quick passing game even though the Browns like to sit back in zone coverage. The Browns are allowing the second-most schedule adjusted receiving yards to WR1s (101.5) but the fourth-fewest to WR2s (31.9), fifth-fewest to RBs (27.8) and sixth-fewest to TEs. Cleveland is also first in rushing DVOA on defense. This sets up as a game where Austin Ekeler could struggle and Keenan Allen may have to catch 10 balls. I’m fading the Ekeler chalk coming off the big game and only rolling with Allen in GPPs.

  • Cash Plays: None
  • GPP Plays: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Keenan Allen, Chargers DST

Giants at Cowboys

Giants Odds +7
Cowboys Odds -7
Moneyline +245 / -310
Over/Under 53
Time 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

Fresh off coming back to upset the Saints in the Superdome last week, the Giants are in another spot where they tend to make things interesting. Daniel Jones, who threw for 402 yards last week against a Saints defense that is ranked second in pass DVOA, is 11-4 (73%) ATS in his career on the road, including 10-2 (83%) ATS as road underdog.

The Giants offensive line is surprisingly 13th in pass blocking efficiency thanks to improved play form second-year left tackle Andrew Thomas, who has allowed six pressures and no sacks this year after allowing 57 pressures and 10 sacks as a rookie. Dan Quinn’s defense is an improved unit from last year thanks to the absurdly brilliant play of Trevon Diggs, the insertion of rookie Micah Parsons, and more scheme multiplicity, but the Cowboys still struggle to generate pressure, ranking 24th in pressure rate (22.2%). Jones is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt from a clean pocket this season compared to 5.7 when pressured. Perhaps because the absences of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton led to a speed infusion with rookie Kadarius Toney and veteran John Ross entering the lineup, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s route concepts improved, with fewer routes that break back to the line of scrimmage and more than allow Jones to hit receivers in stride and allow them to pick up yards after the catch.

I’m betting the Giants make life tough on the home team for the second straight week.

Pick: Giants +7 (to +6)


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Jones is viable for cash games against a Cowboys defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Cowboys are a high-percentage man coverage team, which should work in favor of Kenny Golladay, who leads the Giants in rate of targets versus man coverage (33.3%) — 10% more than Kadarius Toney (23.1%). Toney is still in play after seeing nine targets and a rushing attempt last week.

Saquon Barkley should continue to be productive against a Cowboys defense that rates 19th in DVOA and has allowed an NFL-high 33 catches to the position. Given that the Cowboys have allowed the fewest carries by RBs (46) but the most catches, Barkley is stack-able with Jones. Barkley’s snap rates the last three weeks are 84%, 86% and 89%.

Dak Prescott is one of the top GPP plays on the board against a Giants defense that is ranked 24th in passing DVOA and 29th in pressure rate (19.4%). Every Cowboys receiver is in play in tournaments: CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper due to decreasing salaries, and Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin and Cedrick Wilson due to the fact that the Giants are 24th in DVOA versus TEs and 31st against non-WR1/2s.

Ezekiel Elliott is a top RB play, as the Giants are ranked 26th in run-defense DVOA and have allowed two 100-yard rushers on the season.

  • Cash Plays: Daniel Jones
  • GPP Plays: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney


49ers at Cardinals

49ers Odds +5
Cardinals Odds +5
Moneyline +200 / -235
Over/Under 48.5
Time 4:25 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Betting Pick

This is a spot where Kyle Shanahan usually works his magic: He’s 23-16 (59%) ATS as a ‘dog, including 15-9 (63%) ATS as a road ‘dog. This is a letdown spot for the Cardinals after finally beating the Rams to improve to 4-0, but there’s too much uncertainty to feel confident about a pick.

Pick: Pass


Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis

DFS Plays

Trey Lance was lucky to score 20-plus fantasy points in a half of work last week — it looked like the first time he ever threw a football. Deebo Samuel was wide open on Lance’s first TD pass and turned in an exceptional extra effort after the catch on the second score. Still, Lance scrambled five times for 36 yards and saw two designed runs, which is the type of rushing workload that can make any Tim Tebow into a DFS cheat code. Lance is viable in cash games.

The Cardinals are third in pass defense DVOA but 16th against the rush, so we can expect a run-heavy game plan from Kyle Shanahan, especially without George Kittle. That makes playing Lance alone a superior option to stacking him.

If doing the latter, Samuel is still the best option. The ultimate contrarian play is Brandon Aiyuk, who Shanahan talked up this week, saying, “I think his time will come. It’s a matter of time. He’s too good of a player for it not to be.” The Cardinals will be without starting cornerback Byron Murphy (ribs). The Cardinals are second in DVOA to tight ends, allowing just 24.0 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position, so Aiyuk is a better option than Kittle’s replacement, Ross Dwelley.

Rookie Elijah Mitchell got removed from the injury report and should take his spot as the Niners’ starting tailback. Shanahan clearly didn’t trust fellow rookie Trey Sermon, who played fewer snaps than fullback Kyle Juszczyk in each of the past two weeks despite being the de-facto starter. Mitchell has never seen fewer than 19 touches in a game in his pro career through two appearances, and both of his snap rates (64%, 61%) were higher than Sermon’s (59%, 51%) despite Sermon having zero competition for work. Mitchellis a nice leverage play on Lance.

Kyler Murray is one of the top GPP plays at QB against a 49ers defense that is ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in pressure rate (20.5%).

After getting shredded in man coverage in Week 3 and losing more cornerbacks, the 49ers eased up and played mostly zone in Week 4 against Seattle. It worked for the most part, as the 49ers forced five straight three-and-outs in the first half. Against another scrambling threat in Murray, the 49ers are likely to stick with a zone-heavy approach. This benefits A.J. Green, who leads the team in zone targets with 16. Christian Kirk has seen only nine, which ranks sixth on the team behind Maxx Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore and Chase Edmonds, who each have seen 13 targets apiece vs. zone. With Williams and Edmonds both questionable with shoulder injuries, Hopkins, Green and Moore are the plays.

James Conner would instantly be a borderline RB1 play if Edmonds is ruled out because he’d likely see nearly 100% of the backfield usage. Edmonds and Conner have combined for 290 backfield snaps, while No. 3 back Jonathan Ward has seen just two. Faced with an injury to half his backfield committee last season in Week 9 without Kenyan Drake, Kliff Kingsbury played Edmonds for 96% of the snaps and fed him a career-high 28 touches.

  • Cash Plays: Trey Lance
  • GPP Plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, Maxx Williams, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

DFS Cash Lineups

DraftKings

QB Daniel Jones $6,000 at DAL
RB Derrick Henry $9,000 at JAX
RB James Robinson $6,000 vs. TEN
RB Damien Williams $5,600 at LV UPDATE: Alexander Mattison $5,500 vs. DET
WR Davante Adams $8,200 at CIN
WR Hunter Renfrow $4,900 vs. CHI
WR Curtis Samuel $3,000 vs. NO
TE Mike Gesicki $4,200 at TB
DST Minnesota Vikings $3,900 vs. DET

FanDuel

QB Trey Lance $6,900 at ARI
RB Derrick Henry $10,400 at JAX
RB James Robinson $7,400 vs. TEN UPDATE: Alexander Mattison $6,500 vs. DET
RB Damien Williams $5,800 at LV
WR Davante Adams $8,200 at CIN
WR Hunter Renfrow $5,800 vs. CHI UPDATE: A.J. Brown $6,900 at JAX
WR Laviska Shenault Jr. $5,800 vs. TEN
TE Mike Gesicki $5,800 vs. TB
DST Minnesota Vikings $3,900 vs. DET

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