NFL Betting Tip: Bills-Jets Offering Value in Week 10
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy
- The Buffalo Bills are 7-point underdogs against the New York Jets on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
- Buffalo has a historically bad offense that is averaging just 10.4 points per game.
- Using the Bet Labs database, we analyzed how bad offensive teams perform as big underdogs.
The Buffalo Bills’ offense (10.4 points per game) is a bad joke. The team hasn’t scored more than 13 points in a game since Week 3 and has managed to score only eight touchdowns this season — the Rams and Saints combined to score 10 touchdowns in their Week 9 meeting.
Quarterbacks Josh Allen, Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman have combined to throw three touchdowns in nine games. Undrafted free agent Nick Mullens threw three touchdown passes in his first career start for San Francisco.
The Bills are on pace to tie the record for the fewest total touchdowns (14) since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule. The 1991 Colts and 1992 Seahawks currently share the dubious honor.
And finally, per Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, Buffalo has the worst offensive DVOA ever measured through nine games.
The Bills’ historic offensive ineptitude is why the New York Jets opened as 8-point favorites on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). A majority of spread tickets have been placed on Gang Green as well (see live odds).
But here’s the thing, bad offenses are often undervalued, especially after a blowout loss.
The Bills fell to the Bears, 41-9, in Week 9.
Since 2003, teams following a loss of four or more touchdowns that score fewer than 20 points per game, like Buffalo, have gone 98-72-5 (57.6%) against the spread (ATS) in their next game, according to Bet Labs.
If the team is an underdog, the win rate and units won increase:
Let’s not forget that the Jets offense has its own problems. The team is averaging 22.0 points (22nd) and 310.6 yards (29th) per game while ranking 30th in offensive DVOA.
More troubling is the play of rookie quarterback Sam Darnold.
Sam the Savior hasn’t lived up to the nickname. The third overall pick has thrown an NFL-high 14 interceptions, four more than Case Keenum and Jameis Winston.
Darnold, however, is expected to miss Sunday’s game with a strained right foot.
Backup Josh McCown has seen little action this season, taking only 19 preseason snaps and none in the regular season.
McCown gets a tough matchup against a Buffalo defense that is almost as good as the offense is bad. The Bills rank second in defensive DVOA and are third against the pass, limiting opposing offenses to 212 passing yards per game.
Despite the offensive shortcomings in Buffalo and a majority of tickets being placed on New York, the line has moved from Bills +8 to +7.
The public will avoid Buffalo, but smart money wagers on numbers, not the team name on the jersey.