Rovell’s Week 3 NFL Betting Report: Daniel Jones Prop Costs Bettor $500,000
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Jones
Welcome to the week of easy money. That’s how bettors are treating it, anyways.
Sportsbooks on the whole endured a losing Week 2, so bettors are coming back in droves with fresh cash and with so many mismatches on the board, the bookmakers could take another bath if the public sides come through. Or, perhaps a better way of looking at it, if some bad teams don’t cover.
Here’s what the books are rooting for and against in Week 3.
Sunday Afternoon: A Prop Beating
It will go down as one of the worst bets of the year — at least in the dollars invested.
A bettor wagered $500,000 on Daniel Jones to throw for over 244.5 yards on Sunday. The opportunity was ripe, with the 49ers defense decimated with injuries.
But the prop didn’t come close to hitting. The Giants couldn’t get anything going all day and lost 36-9 to the 49ers.
Jones threw for 179, his third worst total passing yards result in games in which he started. Jones had thrown for more than 244.5 yards in six of his 14 starts before today.
DraftKings also took a $500,000 bet on the Giants +4 that would have paid $424,989.
DraftKings spokesman Stephen Miraglia said he could not confirm whether the two bets came from the same bettor.
Another Sunday notable: BetMGM took $100,000 on the Bears moneyline at +120, which won that bettor $120,00. Chicago scored 20 points in the final seven minutes to beat the Falcons 30-26.
Sunday Morning: A $500,000 Prop
DraftKings took a massive bet on Giants quarterback Daniel Jones — $500,000 that he throws for more than 244.5 passing yards. A win would pay $450,000.
DK also took a $500K bet on the Giants +4, which pays $424,989.
Thursday Night: Bookmakers Banking on Bad Teams in Week 3
Sportsbooks started Week 3 by rooting on the Miami Dolphins as 3-point underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.
Jacksonville got 71% of the tickets and 69% of the money according to our data. The total was a big decision as a whopping 90% of bets came in on the Over (48.5 to 49.5) in Jacksonville, but it went under, and the Fins covered.
The Minnesota Vikings made it to the NFC Championship in 2017 and the Divisional Round in 2019, but 2020 looks like it could be a dud. The 0-2 Vikes are just 2.5-point underdogs on Sunday against the 2-0 Titans, who were one game away from a Super Bowl berth last season. As you can imagine, nobody wants to back Minnesota at such a short price.
Our data shows that the Titans are getting 79% of the bets against the Vikings, making them the second-most popular bet on the board on Sunday. FanDuel, PointsBet and DraftKings each reported that Tennessee is getting 85% of the handle at their respective shops. The number hasn’t budged, though.
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The only team that is more popular than Tennessee (as of Thursday afternoon) are Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our data shows that the Bucs are getting 84% of the tickets as 6-point favorites over the Denver Broncos, who will be starting Jeff Driskel opposite Brady.
“We have one bet on the Broncos as of now,” Eric Osterman, executive manager of the race and sportsbook at the Westgate SuperBook, said. “It’s for $55.”
That’s despite the fact that the Broncos are actually one of nine teams that have covered the spread in both their games. Don’t be surprised if this number moves to seven.
Another bad team that sportsbooks will be desperately rooting for are the New York Jets. Sportsbooks begged the public to decide: Would they take the Jets as 7-point dogs against the Colts? Nope. How about 8? Nope. How about 9? More Colts money. How about 10? Think again. So here we are with the Jets hanging between +11 and +12 depending on the sportsbook. Will we finally see some greenbacks land on Gang Green? Don’t count on it.
FanDuel reports that 85% of the dollars for this game have landed on Indianapolis. Not only are the Jets bad, but they’re dealing with a plethora of injuries, too.
“We’ve got a significant amount of money on the spread and moneyline for the Colts in parlays,” Osterman said.
A New Public Darling Emerges
The Arizona Cardinals are quickly becoming public darlings. Kyler Murray and the Cards are 2-0, including a win over the 49ers, and play an exciting brand of football. There’s a lot for a casual bettor to love in AZ.
It doesn’t hurt that bettors don’t trust the Detroit Lions as far as they can throw them. Detroit is 0-2 thanks to a 21-point loss to Green Bay and a calamitous fourth-quarter collapse against Chicago in Week 2.
FanDuel and DraftKings both reported that Arizona is getting 90% of the money in this matchup, though Osterman says they are seeing some support for Detroit thanks to the return of Kenny Golladay.
One favorite the sportsbooks will be rooting for is Buffalo. The Bills are 2.5-point favorites, but Osterman noted that the Rams are a pretty popular play both against the spread and on the moneyline. Our data shows that 63% of the tickets are on the Rams. Beware the trendy dog.
Sharps are on the Bill O’Brien, of all people. Sportsbooks thought that bettors would fade Houston thanks to its 0-2 record, but money came in quickly on the Texans at +6 and has moved them down to +4 against the Steelers. Seems like bettors noticed that the Texans opened up against the Chiefs and Ravens.
The most important total of Week 3 will likely end up being Chiefs-Ravens. Bettors are hoping for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes to provide fireworks, as 87% of the bets we’ve tracked have taken the Over, which is as high as 54.5 as of Thursday afternoon. You can expect this game to do huge numbers since it’s a standalone game on Monday Night Football and it’s hard to imagine casual bettors taking the Under.