Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota
- The Action Network ran 10,000 simulations of the 2018-19 NFL season to determine the most likely division winners.
- By comparing our projections to available betting lines, we found three teams worthy of a division bet.
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If you are holding a Los Angeles Rams or New England Patriots division future, congratulations on the win.
Neither the Rams nor the Patriots have clinched their division, but the oddsmakers at the Westgate SuperBook are no longer taking bets on the outcomes of the NFC West and AFC East.
The bookmakers are willing to take action on the other six division races that are more competitive, and we are happy to oblige them.
By comparing The Action Network’s NFL simulations to the current betting odds, we can determine which teams are overvalued and undervalued by the betting market.
For example: The Kansas City Chiefs’ odds of winning the AFC West are 1-8. For us to feel comfortable with wagering on Kansas City, it would need to win the division 88.9% (which is 8/(1+8)) of the time.
According to our model, the Chiefs have an 87.7% chance of winning the division crown, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 1-8 odds.
Based on the difference in implied probability and projections, six teams have value to win their respective divisions. The analysis below looks at the three best wagers bettors can place prior to Week 11.
All odds via Westgate.
- Current odds: 1-6, Implied Probability: 85.7%
- Steelers win AFC North 96.8% of the time
We’ve been beating this drum for a while. We recommended betting Pittsburgh to win the AFC North after its tie in Week 1 with the Browns and then again when the Steelers were 2-2-1 and 1.5 games back of the Bengals.
Wins against the Bengals, Browns and Ravens during the team’s five-game winning streak has propelled Pittsburgh to the top of the division standings.
Le’Veon Bell will not play this season but the offense hasn’t skipped a beat with James Conner.
If you followed our advice earlier this season you are sitting pretty, but if you’d like to jump on the Steelers’ bandwagon there is still room.
Our simulations puts Pittsburgh’s odds of winning the division at closer to 1-30, meaning there is good value at 1-6 odds.