NFL Luck Rankings for Week 8: Saints Enter Bottom 3; Steelers Dominate Luck
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Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 8.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-6-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-60-6 (62.7%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 8.
NFL Week 8 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.15% | |
| 2 | 18.78% | |
| 3 | 15.03% | |
| 4 | 14.7% | |
| 5 | 14.45% | |
| 6 | 8% | |
| 7 | 6.65% | |
| 8 | 5.89% | |
| 9 | 5.36% | |
| 10 | 5.22% | |
| 11 | 4.62% | |
| 12 | 3.63% | |
| 13 | 2.62% | |
| 14 | 1.83% | |
| 15 | -0.25% | |
| 16 | -0.8% | |
| 17 | -2.72% | |
| 18 | -3.8% | |
| 19 | -5.92% | |
| 20 | -6.37% | |
| 21 | -6.55% | |
| 22 | -7.23% | |
| 23 | -7.61% | |
| 24 | -7.90% | |
| 25 | -8.38% | |
| 26 | -8.64% | |
| 27 | -9.42% | |
| 28 | -9.43% | |
| 29 | -9.62% | |
| 30 | -17.17% | |
| 31 | -18.7% | |
| 32 | -20.34% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' 24-17 win over the Rams was once again a bit lucky. Our Expected Score metric had this as a 25-20 game in favor of the Steelers, making it a touch closer than the final score reflected, in no small part thanks to now-former Los Angeles kicker Brett Maher's continued struggles.
As a result, the Steelers are now the luckiest team after seven weeks into a season in the last six years by our Luck% metric.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals' bye week, coupled with the Steelers' slightly lucky win, keeps them in the second position.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay's loss to the Falcons drops them off the three line and elevates the Eagles back into the top three of the Luck Rankings after the Eagles dispatched the Dolphins 31-17. Our Expected Score had that game 28-20 in favor of the Eagles, so the final score was a bit flattering for the NFC East leaders.
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The Unluckiest Teams
30. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans finds its way into the bottom three for the first time all year after taking the worst beat of Week 7.
Based on Expected Score Pythagorean Win%, the Saints should be a little better than a four-win team at this point. History is repeating itself in this case, as the Saints were 31st at this point last year.
31. Chicago Bears
After suffering the week's worst defeat at the hands of the Vikings in Week 6, the Bears flipped the script and dealt the Raiders the third-worst beat of Week 7. That's more than enough to elevate them off the bottom line as Chicago moves from a Luck% of -27.7% to -18.7%.
32. Carolina Panthers
After a bye week, the Panthers will look to get on the board against the Texans as the first of three straight games against teams that have a win expectation below 50% this season.
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