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Updated NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Remains Favorite Despite Loss to Chargers

Dec 19, 2018 11:45 AM EST

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes (-140) remains the NFL MVP favorite despite losing to the Chargers.
  • Philip Rivers moved from +1600 to +650, but will probably need to take home the AFC West title to have a shot at the hardware.
  • Drew Brees' odds actually slightly improved from -105 to -110 despite his third consecutive subpar effort.

When you make touchdown passes like this happen on a weekly basis, you deserve to be the MVP favorite even if your team screws the pooch on a two-point attempt at the end of the game.

The Chiefs lost and kept the door open for the Chargers in the AFC West, but it certainly wasn’t Patrick Mahomes’ fault. He played better than his counterpart Philip Rivers, but ’twas Rivers who came out with the win at the end of the day, boosting his MVP odds.

Thanks to another dud of a game by Drew Brees, Mahomes remains a solid favorite heading into Week 16.

I believe a win in Seattle should put Mahomes’ odds into the stratosphere, but as we’ve seen over the past few weeks, crazy things can happen in the NFL and nothing should be ruled out.


Philip Rivers: +1600 to +650 (+7.4% Implied Probability)

A win over the Chiefs was huge for Rivers and the Chargers, who have kept their AFC West and 1-seed hopes alive. Obviously, this greatly helps Rivers’ MVP chances.

The last MVP to not be on a division winner was Adrian Peterson in 2012 and the last QB to win MVP to not be on a division winner was Peyton Manning in 2008.

It’s an uphill battle for the Chargers, who need to finish the final two games with a better record than the Chiefs. Kansas City has a tough one in Seattle this week, but ends the year against the Raiders.

LA hosts a tough Ravens team before heading to Denver — which is always a daunting task.

Melvin Gordon may return this week, but Rivers could be without his favorite target Keenan Allen. Perhaps Rivers does deserve MVP if he can pull out these final two wins.

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Drew Brees: -105 to -110 (+1.2% IP)

I was expecting to see Brees’ odds drop into the plus-money range, but they actually improved. The Saints managed just 12 points in Carolina, but the big thing was they got the win and kept a firm grasp on that 1-seed in the NFC.

There’s no denying Brees is stumbling toward the finish line, though. Monday’s game was his worst in terms of QB rating at just 69.1, which marks his third straight game with a rating below 100.

He’s had four consecutive games with no more than 203 passing yards and has thrown an interception in each one after beginning the season with just one pick in the first 10 games.

I think Brees bettors need to hope for the Chargers to win the AFC West. Either that or 400 yards and five TDs from Brees this week vs. Pittsburgh.


Aaron Donald: +3300 to Off the Board (-2.9% IP)

The Rams lost again and Aaron Donald hardly did anything again. The DPOY candidate had just two combined tackles and zero sacks for the second consecutive week.

Had he kept up his crazy sack pace and broken the record, there’s a chance he could’ve been in the running for MVP. Not anymore.

Jared Goff: +3300 to +7500 (-1.6% IP)

Last three games: 72-130 (55.4%), 726 yards, one touchdown, six interceptions.

Not exactly leaving the voters with a good taste in their mouths, eh Jared???

Russell Wilson: +5000 to Off the Board (-1.0% IP)

A loss for Russell Wilson to the 49ers is not going to help his MVP candidacy, which wasn’t strong to begin with.

A win vs. the Chiefs this week could potentially bring his hardware hopes back to life, but he’ll still need help from all of the other candidates.

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