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Updated NFL MVP Odds: Brees Closing in on Mahomes

Nov 15, 2018 9:30 PM EST
  • After leading the Saints to a 51-14 win against the Bengals, Drew Brees has moved from +300 to +160 to win the NFL MVP.
  • Patrick Mahomes is still an odds-on favorite at -110, but his odds have slipped with Brees eating up a big chunk of implied probability.
  • Todd Gurley (+600) is still by himself in third, but his odds could plummet if the Rams can't beat the Chiefs in Week 11.

The Saints keep stomping and the Chiefs have been taking care of business.

Their respective quarterbacks have been wheeling and dealing and the MVP race is slowing turning into a two-man affair between Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.

Risers

Drew Brees: +300 to +160 (+13.5% Implied Probability)

Brees and the Saints had another near-perfect game on offense, lighting up the Bengals on the road for 51 points.

Brees completed 88% of his passes, pushing his season mark to a crazy 77.3% — nearly 6% higher than the second-most accurate passer in the league, who is ironically Derek Carr.

The Saints quarterback trails Mahomes by 10 in the touchdown department and by more than 500 passing yards, but New Orleans has played one fewer game.

Brees has been better in basically every other statistical category so it’s understandable that this is becoming a two-man race.

Ben Roethlisberger: N/A to +4000 (+2.4% IP)

This one should really have an asterisk. I still don’t understand why Bovada pulled Big Ben from its board last week, but it did. How does he respond? A 50-burger for Roethlisberger.

Five TD passes, more than 300 yards and a perfect 158.3 rating in the Steelers’ 52-21 win over the Panthers. For that, he gets his name reposted. Good for you, Ben.

Philip Rivers: +2000 to +1600 (+1.1% IP)

I mean, do you deserve to see your MVP odds rise after putting up only 20 points vs. the Raiders?

Rivers’ game in Oakland wasn’t exactly illustrious, but he is having a sneaky great season. His QB rating of 115.4 is third behind Brees and Mahomes and the Chargers keep winning.

There could be a scenario in which a Chargers win against the Chiefs next month flips the script in the AFC West and, in turn, the MVP race. Not a likely scenario, but it could happen.


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Fallers

Patrick Mahomes: -140 to -110 (-5.9% IP)

Mahomes had a solid game vs. Arizona, but the Chiefs could not cover as huge favorites. He did, however, snap a streak of five games with at least one interception.

The Chiefs’ game vs. the Rams has officially been moved to LA, which should make things a bit tougher on the young Mahomes.

A big game for Mahomes and a Chiefs win could give his odds a good boost, while a loss could open the door for Brees to take over as the favorite.

Todd Gurley: +450 to +600 (-3.9% IP)

Gurley put up more gaudy numbers last week, but apparently needs to do even better to keep up with the quarterbacks.

Like Mahomes, Week 11 will be big for Gurley’s MVP stock. He shouldn’t struggle from a statistical standpoint, but even a Rams loss will likely cause his odds to take another hit.

Carson Wentz: +2000 to +3300 (-1.9% IP)

Look, Wentz has been a great QB since returning to the Eagles this year. There’s just no way that he’s going to win MVP if Philly keeps losing.

After a loss to the Cowboys, the Eagles fell to 4-5 — two games back in the division. If he can lead them back to a division title, then maybe he’ll have a chance.

When both “if” and “maybe” are in italics, you know that’s not a good sign.

Credit:

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Brees

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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