AFC Championship Game Player Props: Expert Bets for Bengals vs Chiefs
Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Hayden Hurst.
Bengals vs Chiefs Player Props
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Hurst has caught at least four passes in 10 of 15 games this season.
One of the games he failed to do so was against the Chiefs in Week 13, when he appeared to be on his way to a big game with three targets and two catches on just six routes before departing with injury. This tracks with the Chiefs’ 7.6 schedule-adjusted targets per game allowed to opposing tight ends, which is sixth-most.
Fair odds for this line should be closer to -200.
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Pacheco has caught more than one pass in just four of 18 games, including 3 of 10 since becoming the starter.
Even with the Chiefs holding a lead for most of the game last week, Pacheco played just 35% of the offensive snaps while Jerick McKinnon played 65%. This is likely to continue, as McKinnon saw a huge jump in usage last postseason as well, playing 74% of snaps after logging an average snap rate of 19% during the regular season.
Throwing the ball to Pacheco is unlikely to be a major part of the Chiefs’ game plan, with the Bengals clocking in second in DVOA on targets to running backs. This is especially true with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs backs pass-blocked on 23% of snaps last week, a massive increase from their season average of 14%.
Fair odds for this line should be closer to -230.
Note: I was able to bet this at -165 at DraftKings earlier in the week, but this is playable to -200.
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