NFL Picks & Predictions: Expert Bets on Every Divisional Round Game
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NFL Picks & Predictions: Expert Bets on Every Divisional Round Game
We’ve reached the final eight NFL teams after home teams won five of the six games on Wild Card Weekend. Since Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott — the consensus preseason top three quarterbacks in the NFC — were eliminated last weekend, one of Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield or Jordan Love will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl next month.
The AFC went much truer to form and seeds as Kansas City and Buffalo won as home favorites to set up their third head-to-head matchup in the past four postseasons (Kansas City is 2-0). Rookie C.J. Stroud dazzled against the league’s top defense last weekend, and will look to replicate that performance against another elite unit in Baltimore.
My NFL picks & predictions are 63-36-2 (63.6%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post between the regular season and Wild Card Round. Here are my thoughts on all four NFL Divisional Round games, including the bets I’ve made already.
Click on a game below to navigate this post.
NFL Picks & Predictions
| Game |
|---|
| Texans vs. Ravens |
| Packers vs. 49ers |
| Buccaneers vs. Lions |
| Chiefs vs. Bills |
Houston’s advanced EPA box score from the 45-14 playoff win against Cleveland was all too familiar this season. The Texans had 34 early down plays against the Browns and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik called 19 runs and 15 passes. The run plays had a 21% success rate and a -0.16 EPA per play. When the Texans went to the air, their offense had a 60% success rate, created a first down on 53% of the pass plays and averaged 1.07 PPP.
Slowik is receiving head coach buzz and interviews for his play design and offensive acumen, but the Texans offense is insistent on trying to run the ball to little success on early downs. It’s not until they unleash Stroud to throw the ball down the field that the Texans offense really comes to life. The Texans had -0.18 EPA per play on early down runs early in Indianapolis in Week 18, compared to 0.62 EPA per play on passes (and a 60% success rate).
Stroud also won’t get the benefit of playing inside a dome, as he has in each of the past two weeks. The forecasted winds are expected to be higher than 10 mph, which further favors the Ravens ability to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball.
The biggest issue for the Texans offense is likely to come in the red zone. The Texans aren’t going to be effective at running the ball and it’ll make life difficult for them against a Baltimore defense that ranks second in the NFL in touchdown percentage allowed in the red zone.
Houston ranks 16th in net yards per drive and 17th in red zone touchdown percentage, but Slowik and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans have consistently displayed conservative play-calling and fourth-down decision making this season.
As shown by the chart, Houston ranks in the bottom seven in early down pass frequency, while Baltimore is seventh in pass frequency in neutral game states.
Baltimore will be attacking a vulnerable Houston secondary through the air and avoiding Houston's strong run defense.
The Ravens have the clear advantage early on given the extended rest and Houston’s inefficient early down rushing. The Texans and Stroud are inflated off two indoor games and Saturday will look considerably different. Once the Texans fall behind and unleash Stroud, they’ll be live to cover the spread against a Baltimore team that struggles to put away teams as a big favorite.
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If the entire country wasn’t aware of the quantum leap Jordan Love made midseason, it is after Sunday’s demolition of Dan Quinn’s defense in Dallas. The reality is that Green Bay has been an offensive juggernaut for half the season now. The Packers will now have to take their show back outdoors, but I see no reason why Green Bay can’t move the ball against a San Francisco defense thats biggest vulnerability is teams that can successfully throw the ball down the field.
Don’t let a few first-half Prescott interceptions trick you into believing that Joe Barry’s defense is anything better than a bottom-eight unit. Barry’s run-defense scheme has been consistently exposed when facing Kyle Shanahan's run offense, and the biggest difference between San Francisco and Dallas is that the 49ers have a very functioning and capable run offense.
While Dallas quickly became one-dimensional on Sunday, the 49ers have a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey and key starters have had two full weeks off. That’s a massive rest advantage for San Francisco given that the Packers defense had to play 89 snaps against Dallas on Sunday. You’ll probably hear that Green Bay had a relatively easy win, and I know most of the Cowboys success came in garbage time with the game long decided, but Dallas still kept Green Bay’s defense on the field and playing against the pass for most of the second half.
The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks. Each of the past four were must wins at Carolina, Minnesota, home vs. Chicago and at Dallas.
The 49ers and Packers rank first and third in early down efficiency this season. Green Bay’s offensive line showed last week that it can stifle an elite pass rush. Since Week 7, when Matt LaFleur finally started to trust Love, the Packers quarterback is third in EPA + CPOE composite.
In that same time frame, here's where the 49ers rank defensively:
- Rush EPA: 28th
- Dropback Success Rate: 20th
- Dropback EPA: 17th
- Overall Success Rate: 22nd
The San Francisco defense enters this game quite overvalued and the Packers defense could run out of gas at any moment. As a result, this total sits too low below 51. Much like last week, I expect both offenses to have success. The 49ers will try to play ball control with the ground game, but this version of San Francisco is too explosive to play keep away from Green Bay.
Verdict: Bet Over 50.5 (-110; bet365)
Fun additional game prop: Both Teams to Score 20+ at FanDuel (-102)
Tampa Bay’s win against Philadelphia said a lot more about the current state of the Eagles to me than it did Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers took advantage of the Eagles' rotting corpse, which lost five of six to close the regular season and was clueless schematically on both sides of the ball on Monday night. Now, Tampa Bay hits the road, where its defense is more equipped to slow down Detroit, but its offense’s inability to run the ball effectively will face a real test.
The Lions secondary has real issues in coverage, where the defense ranks 29th per PFF. The question is whether Detroit’s run defense and pass rush can make Tampa Bay one-dimensional enough and rattle a still not 100% healthy Baker Mayfield. Mayfield excelled against Philadelphia, but remember how poorly he played in the two games prior against New Orleans and Carolina.
The Lions are sixth in rushing defense EPA per play, first in Rush DVOA and face a Tampa Bay offense that finished 29th in rushing offense success rate. Mayfield finished the regular season with a 69% completion rate when kept clean in the pocket. If the Lions can dial up pressure, Mayfield’s yards-per-attempt rate drops from 7.7 to 6.3 and his completion rate drops to 49%.
The Lions basically have advantages everywhere on the field Sunday, except in pass defense. Detroit survived two elite wide receivers and a much better quarterback last Saturday and I expect them to do so again because Goff has made real improvements against the blitz this season.
Blitzing Goff was a path to success in years past, but Todd Bowles approach to blitz Hurts every play won’t work against the scheme and playmakers Detroit has offensively. Goff averages more yards per attempt when blitzed than when not blitzed. His passing numbers as a whole are comparably good and we saw him dice up the Vikings defense twice in the past month. He has 13 touchdowns and six interceptions when blitzed and still averages 7.7 yards per attempt with a 64.8% completion rate. He’s much more well-equipped to handle the blitz than the Eagles were on Monday.
Ultimately, the number seems about right to me and I have no bet on the side here. But the matchup and extra rest both favor Detroit at home. I’d only bet the Lions if the line dips to -5.5 or -225 on the moneyline, though.
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Verdict: Lean Detroit, bet at -5.5 or -225 on the moneyline
There still hasn’t been overtime in a playoff game since that consequential January 2022 day in Kansas City when the Chiefs tied the game in the final 13 seconds and then beat Buffalo in overtime. If there were ever a game for the new overtime playoff rules to get put to the test, it feels like it should be this one. For the third time, Allen and Mahomes will face off in the playoffs. This is the first time they’ll meet in Buffalo, and the first time Mahomes has played a true road playoff game.
Buffalo struggled through the first half of the season and began 6-6. Many wrote them off, but the Bills have won six straight. Kansas City struggled down the stretch with offensive miscues, defensive regression and a 3-5 midseason stretch that saw many also count them out.
When you have Allen and Mahomes, the offensive floor remains so high that neither is truly out of the AFC playoff picture. The Bills have certainly operated at a higher level and more consistently on offense, but Buffalo is in a tough spot even though it's at home. The injuries continue to add up for the Bills defensively, and they’re playing this game on two fewer days of rest.
The Chiefs won on Saturday and will almost certainly have been prepping for Buffalo from then on. Buffalo has its top two safeties healthy in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, but the corner situation is dicey at best. The Bills lost cornerback Christian Benford, slot corner Taron Johnson and key linebacker Terrel Bernard. Rasul Douglas will be back and he’s played at a high level in this defense, but this isn’t all that different from the Miami situation.
The Dolphins lost a ton of key defensive players and then had to play on a short week against Mahomes. It didn’t go well. Kansas City had its issues in the red zone, but similar to the Cincinnati game, the Chiefs moved the ball at will.
Don’t look now, but that’s two consecutive high success rate games for the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs ran 75 plays and averaged 5.5 yards per play in terrible offensive conditions. If you go back to the first meeting between these teams, the Chiefs had a 48% success rate compared to 41% for Buffalo.
The Chiefs defense held Buffalo to a 37% success rate on passes. The Buffalo offense still isn’t operating as efficiently since Joe Brady became offensive coordinator and the Chiefs can cover the tight ends considerably better than Pittsburgh did on Monday.
Mahomes is 8-1-1 in his career against the spread as an underdog. I’ll have a full game preview for this matchup later in the week as well, but there’s no real difference between these two teams' true talent for me.
If the line has dropped to 2.5 by the time you read this, I'd bet the Chiefs moneyline at +120 or higher.
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Verdict: Bet Kansas City +3 (-118, DraftKings)
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