NFL Picks, Predictions: Expert Bets for Divisional Round (Jan. 21, Sunday)
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield.
NFL Picks, Predictions: Expert Bets for Divisional Round (Jan. 21, Sunday)
I have an against the spread (ATS) pick for my NFL picks and predictions for the Sunday Divisional Round game between the Buccaneers and Lions. Click on the team logos to navigate my Bucs-Lions analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 3 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs. Lions
While it initially looked like the Bucs’ 3-1 start to the season was a mirage when they went 1-6 over their next seven games, it is now becoming clear that their midseason lull is the true outlier, with the drop-off owed mostly to a rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Since entering December with a 4-7 record, the Bucs have gone 6-1 while outsourcing opponents 168-107 – an average point differential of 8.7. For context, the Lions are 5-2 with an average point differential of 4.4 over that span.
The Bucs defense is 16th in EPA/play (-0.025) while the Lions are 22nd (0.006). In terms of overall team quality, the Bucs are 15th in Weighted DVOA (which weights recent games more heavily), one spot ahead of a Rams team that was catching only +3 in this same exact spot last week – a Rams team that went on to cover the spread while outgaining Detroit 425-334 in a narrow 24-23 loss.
The Bucs have a couple of things working in their favor in this matchup. When Detroit has the ball, Jared Goff will have his work cut out for him against a Bucs defense that blitzes at a top-three rate. Goff ranks first among 33 qualified passers with a 90.4 PFF grade when not blitzed, but he drops all the way to 22nd with a 70.3 mark when the defense sends extra rushers.
When the Lions are on defense, their fifth-ranked run defense in EPA/rush largely goes to waste against a Bucs offense that finished last in rushing yards per game during the regular season (88.9), while their 27th-ranked pass defense remains a liability. Led by a resurgent Baker Mayfield, the Bucs have worked their way up to eighth in EPA/pass (0.110) – one spot behind the Lions (0.111).
Detroit’s top coverage corner is rookie Brian Branch, who lines up primarily in the slot. Chris Godwin has transitioned from being primarily a slot receiver to lining up mostly on the perimeter this season, meaning both he and Mike Evans will avoid Branch (and safety/nickel hybrid C.J. Gardner-Johnson) while getting to feast on perimeter corners Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor — both rank outside the top 100 in PFF coverage grade at their position.
I backed the Lions as a 3-point road favorite when these teams met in Week 6, and while they ultimately came away with the cover, they were limited to just 20 points, and things could have gone differently if Mayfield wasn’t off target on eight of his 10 deep pass attempts. Mayfield is playing with a lot more confidence now and has gotten more comfortable in Dave Canales’ offense as the season has progressed, which has translated into him throwing for 8.24 yards per attempt with a 13:2 TD:INT ratio over the last six weeks.
According to our Action Labs data, single-digit road 'dogs in the first two rounds of the NFL Playoffs are 48-16-1 (75%) ATS since 2003, covering by 5.3 points per game.
Based on historical trends, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bucs pulled off the upset. Per Bet Labs…
- Divisional Round 'dogs with an ATS winning percentage of at least 58%, like the Bucs (12-6-1 ATS, 67%), have pulled off the upset nearly half of the time, going 20-22 (48%) SU for a 55% ROI since 2003, including 14-11 (56%) with a 93% return on investment (ROI) in games played on Sunday instead of Saturday.
- Divisional Round 'dogs coming off a win of 7 or more points in the Wild Card Round, like the Bucs (32-9 winners against Philly last week), are just three games under .500 over the last two decades, going 23-26 (47%) SU with an ROI of 117%.
- Regardless of round, NFL playoff 'dogs are exactly .500 when facing a favorite that missed last year’s postseason, going 30-30 SU since 2005 for a 30% ROI.
I don’t give out moneyline 'dogs as official pick recommendations because I think that comes down to one’s own personal risk tolerance, but I wouldn’t hesitate to sprinkle the Bucs ML if you like them on the spread.
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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