NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 18 Previews for Every Game
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Hurts (top left) and Josh Allen (bottom right).
NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 18 Previews for Every Game
Twelve of the remaining 16 NFL regular-season games in Week 18 have some sort of playoff implication, whether it’s deciding the final playoff spots in either conference or determining the NFL Wild Card Round matchups and seeding. Nine of the 14 playoff spots have been secured already, and five more have win-and-in scenarios for the final week of the regular season (Houston or Indianapolis, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Green Bay).
Buffalo and Miami will conclude the regular season and play for the AFC East crown on Sunday Night Football, but not before two compelling days of football with Saturday’s doubleheader and a jam-packed Sunday afternoon slate.
My NFL picks & predictions this season are 56-33-2 (62.9%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post. (Be sure to stop at the Saturday night section for a bet on Ravens-Steelers, though.) Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 18 games.
| Category |
|---|
| Saturday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Picks | Week 18 |
Saturday Night Football
Baltimore is an elite team with seemingly no motivation to win this game and will rest most of its key starters. Pittsburgh is playing for all of the motivation in the world to save its season and the Steelers are riding high after consecutive wins with Mason Rudolph out of nowhere. This is a textbook spot in Week 18 where the market overreacts to the motivation and sitting of players, and there’s clear value on the Ravens as a result.
Tyler Huntley has proven that he's a more-than-capable backup quarterback who fits the Ravens' system well and can use his legs effectively to extend plays. Baltimore should have won a road playoff game against Joe Burrow with Huntley under center just last season. Rudolph, meanwhile, really shined the last two weeks against two of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bengals and Seahawks. Both of them are bottom eight units in the league right now.
Baltimore in theory would be incentivized to lose this game to try to keep Buffalo out of the playoffs, but this is also a chance for the Ravens to keep their biggest rival out of the playoffs entirely.
How many times have we seen this backup QB arc this season? Jake Browning, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and even Tommy DeVito have all had their moments in relief where they lead the offense to a few efficient games and then eventually get found out. Even if Baltimore rests a few key players, you can’t sit everyone due to roster constraints. Baltimore has an extremely well-coached defense and its simulated pressures and complex coverage schemes will force Rudolph into mistakes here.
Here’s the key trend to know before betting any “motivational mismatch” in Week 18: Teams in must-win situations in Week 18 to have a chance of reaching the playoffs are now 18-28 (39.1%) against the spread (ATS) when facing teams with no motivation to win. The percentage drops to 33% when that team is laying more than a field goal.
The Steelers remain a below-average team and shouldn’t be laying this much on the road against a well-coached Ravens squad in a rivalry matchup.
Verdict: Bet Baltimore +4
With Noah Brown and Robert Woods unlikely to play, plus Tank Dell already out for the season, there are real questions about how the Texans are supposed to consistently move the ball against the Colts defense. I’d expect a heavy dose of Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz for the Texans in this play-in game for the AFC Wild Card and the potential AFC South title if Jacksonville stumbles on Sunday against the Titans.
Indianapolis’ defense is generally overvalued because the Colts have played a lot of middling/bad quarterbacks this season. The Colts' last eight games have come against Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Mitch Trubisky, Taylor Heinicke and Aidan O’Connell. C.J. Stroud is a major upgrade to all of them. Indianapolis ranks 27th in opponent schedule strength offensively, which inflates its defensive metrics.
Houston’s schedule of opposing offenses actually ranks 28th, according to DVOA, one spot worse than Indianapolis. The Texans and Colts play at a lightning pace and that’s why this total is a touch low to me. Indianapolis is healthy offensively, and it’s really hard to run the ball on the Colts front now that Grover Stewart has returned on the defensive line, which could force the Texans into a more pass-heavy script. Houston has quietly been elite against the run, as well, which could force Gardner Minshew to throw — and likely make some mistakes.
Both teams rank in the top five in pace this season and top 10 in situation-neutral pace. This game could be very back-and-forth, and the total is a bit low. The real concern is Houston's offensive injuries, though.
Verdict: Lean Over 47.5, bet at 46.5
Passes
Imagine telling someone in Week 8 that the Browns would be resting starting QB Joe Flacco in Week 18 because they had already clinched a playoff spot. Cleveland badly needs Amari Cooper to get healthy after he didn’t play in the Week 17 win against the Jets. Because of how the schedule works, the Browns are going to be in a huge situational spot advantage for their road playoff game against the AFC South champion next week.
Cleveland won’t know its opponent until Sunday, but they’ll essentially have a full 2 1/2 weeks off. The Browns will take the field in Cincinnati on Sunday, but half of the defense has been battling injuries for the last month and could use a week to rest and get ready to try to carry this team in the playoffs.
The Browns will go very conservative here and still should be able to run the ball successfully on a soft Cincinnati run defense. The Bengals are bottom five in rush EPA and success rate.
Verdict: Pass
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Since Week 14, the Jets offense is 30th in success rate and the Patriots are 32nd. The Jets defense is a top-eight unit and New England is top five in every metric in that same timeframe. There are no real paths to offense in this game on paper, but this is a classic example of a Week 18 game between two dead teams being really high variance. With a total at 30, both of these quarterbacks are such high turnover risks that one or two short fields will send this game over even if the offenses both stink as expected.
I’ve written enough words on these two teams this season and will not be writing anymore.
Verdict: Pass
This could be the NFC South Championship Game if the Buccaneers lose in Carolina. Or it could be a consolation matchup between two middle-of-the-road NFL teams.
I wrote last week that Week 17 would be my one and only time backing the New Orleans Saints in the 2023 regular season, and I’m not going to break from that a week later. The Saints defense remains overvalued as a unit because it has played one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons also have a top run defense, but they’ve benefitted from a friendly schedule.
With this game being played indoors, just average red-zone efficiency would suggest this total is too low. Both defenses are a bit of a paper tiger, but this game is a stay away from me. We might actually get to buy low on Philadelphia in the NFC Wild Card game.
Verdict: Pass
It’s pretty amazing that Easton Stick is laying points in an NFL game with no receivers, no run game and no offensive line. The Chargers offense couldn’t really move the ball on a mediocre Denver defense and needed a +3 in turnovers to stay competitive with the Bills the week prior. Credit to them for showing real defensive effort for the interim head coach Giff Smith, but this is an easy pass.
The Chiefs should probably give Travis Kelce a week off and hope it can rejuvenate him ahead of the playoff run. I don’t expect Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes or Kelce to play. If the chalk holds, Tyreek Hill and Miami are heading to Kansas City for the Wild Card Round.
Verdict: Pass
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The 49ers have already ruled out Christian McCaffrey, which is a solid signal that they’ll be resting some potentially injured or key players. Brock Purdy has dealt with a stinger, Trent Williams has been banged up and Deebo Samuel has a vast injury history. The historically efficient 49ers offense isn’t quite that without them.
The bigger wild card is how Sean McVay approaches this game. The Rams are safely in the playoffs, so how much do they care about being the No. 6 seed vs. a potential No. 7 seed? Also, these coaches have to know it’s extremely likely they’ll meet again in two weeks in the Divisional Round if the Rams win their first-round playoff game on the road.
Unless you have some perceived information edge on the Rams/49ers sitting or not sitting people, this is a pass.
Verdict: Pass
It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday for this one, but there’s no wind or precipitation in the forecast as the Bears look to finish with a winning record and spoil the Packers' chances at the playoffs. I’ve been higher than the market on the Packers for most of the season and bet them regularly down the stretch run here. It’s mostly revolving around the market rating of the quickly improving Jordan Love.
I’ve lost money with anti-Bears positions each of the last two weeks, but we’re at a point with this number that the market is inflating Green Bay just enough that I'll no longer bet the Packers. The Bears fit the "fade the must win" situational angle, but I’m a bit skeptical of this secondary against quality quarterback play. Laying points with a Joe Barry defense when the Justin Fields offense has taken a clear step forward isn’t something I’m particularly interested in either.
Much like the game above, the side seems right to me. I’ll be monitoring the weather for a potential play on the over later in the week.
Verdict: Pass
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Arizona won last week in the Jonathan Gannon revenge game in Philly and another win would be quite detrimental to their draft positioning. The Cardinals currently sit with the fourth overall pick behind three teams likely drafting a quarterback, and another win would move them as low as seventh on the draft board. Seattle, meanwhile, is in a must-win spot, and it qualifies perfectly in this spot as a team to potentially fade.
The market is so low on the Seahawks here that there’s no real value in betting against them though. Arizona just had its all-in offensive effort last week and the defense is still a bottom-three unit that did nothing to stop the Eagles all game without Philly penalties or drops.
The market is precisely right to me on three to the point where I’d lean Seattle at -2.5 and Arizona at +3.5. Seattle’s defense is quite bad but the market shouldn’t overreact to what Arizona did to Philadelphia because, in my view, it said more about the state of the Eagles defense than anything else.
Verdict: Pass
Leans
Carolina is in with a chance to play spoiler once again here. The line is inflated. It’s a divisional home underdog in Week 18. Our Action Network Luck Rankings show this as a huge edge in favor of Carolina with Tampa Bay as one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL and the Panthers as one of the least fortunate. Everything lines up beautifully for the Panthers to play spoiler here, but I haven’t been able to build the courage to hit submit on the bet slip yet. First off, we’re sitting in a dead zone with the line at 5.5 here. There’s a good chance that it touches 6 or even 6.5 before we get to Sunday.
It’s a common behavioral psychology fallacy to be hesitant to bet on the Panthers again because I just lost with them on a +7 bet that closed +4 last Sunday. No one wants to back Carolina right now, which usually means it’s time to buy in again.
I can’t really make a football case to justify the Panthers, except that the defense has been better than Tampa Bay’s in the second half of the year. Carolina is 14th in success rate since Week 10, and that’s considerably better than Tampa’s 22nd rank.
Verdict: Lean Carolina +5.5, bet at +6.5
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These two teams just played indoors in Minnesota and neither defense could stop the other for the majority of the game. Both teams' Week 17 results were a bit skewed as well. Minnesota started Jaren Hall and Kevin O’Connell quickly realized by halftime that was a mistake and went back to Nick Mullens. Detroit moved the ball pretty well the entire game but struggled mightily on 3rd and short sequences.
The Lions are going to play their starters to begin this game because they could still improve their seeding with a win and some help. It’s not certain that Dan Campbell will keep his starters in the entire game though. Mullens is a real gunslinger and loves to throw the ball down the field and into coverage. That’s an over bettor's dream. He threw for 400 yards and had three picks two weeks ago.
The line is deflated because of perceived motivation, but the over is the better way of playing this. The Brian Flores defense has had a lot of success against the Jared Goff offenses in the past, but we also saw this Vikings defense reach the peak and start to regress the last two weeks.
Verdict: Lean First Half Over 23.5 (+105)
The Cowboys’ total inability to run the ball will be a problem come playoff time and it actually makes them a bit vulnerable as a huge favorite in this road divisional game. Dallas only needs a win here to win the NFC East and wrap up the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That will guarantee potentially two home games in the playoffs and help them avoid the 49ers until the NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys offense peaked with the win at home against Philadelphia and has become a bit one-dimensional and inconsistent in the last three weeks against the Bills, Dolphins and Lions. You won’t find a bigger Dak Prescott fan relative to the consensus opinion on him than me, but Dallas’ offense has been considerably rockier of late and less fluid.
You can still absolutely move the ball on this Dallas defense too, which very quietly ranks 29th in success rate allowed since Week 12. The Cowboys will potentially keep top run-stopper Johnathan Hankins out again to have him ready for the playoffs.
San Francisco closed -14 on the road in Washington on Sunday. Now, Dallas is -13. I know that the Commanders won’t get near Prescott and he should score enough to win this. But winning a road divisional game by two touchdowns with a mediocre defense is hard. Does anyone on earth think there’s only one point between San Francisco and Dallas? It’s Washington or nothing here, and I’ll wait to see if a 14 does pop.
Verdict: Lean Washington +13, bet at +14
NFL Week 18 Picks
The Jaguars stopped the bleeding with a dominant 26-0 win at home against the Panthers in Week 17 without Trevor Lawrence. The market is pricing in that Lawrence will make his return for this game and it’s a classic spot to bet against the Jaguars in a must-win spot laying a couple too many points. The first meeting between these two teams closed Jacksonville -7 in November. Even if the Jaguars won that game comfortably, there’s no way you can be higher on the Jaguars right now than you were headed into that game. Jacksonville lost four straight games and is just 2-4 since that game. If you flipped the home field, then the line would be around Jacksonville -4 here.
As bad as Tennessee has been this year, it’s not like they’ve been regularly blown out overall. The Jaguars middling pass rush shouldn’t expose the Titans poor offensive line too badly, while Tennessee has led in the fourth quarter in five of its last six games. The Titans ultimately blew the game and lost the Seahawks, Colts and Texans at home, but it’s not like Mike Vrabel won’t have his team up to give Jacksonville a tough game on Sunday. This is a chance for Tennessee to play spoiler and even if Lawrence returns, he hasn’t been healthy for weeks. The Jaguars are dead last in rushing success rate since Week 13 and that will put a ton of pressure on Lawrence to carry Jacksonville into the playoffs.
This game is a classic example of the “must-win team” vs. the “team with no motivation” trend as well.
Verdict: Bet Tennessee +5.5 (-110; BetMGM)
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The Raiders have essentially been out of the playoff race for the entirety of the Antonio Pierce tenure and that hasn’t stopped the defense from performing at an elite level since he became coach. There were a few explosive plays conceded to Indianapolis last week that enabled the Colts to grab an early lead, but the Colts offense wasn’t good in that game from a success rate perspective. Indianapolis had a 40% success rate overall and a 38% early down success rate against the Raiders defense.
Denver managed a home win against Easton Stick and an entirely anemic Charger offense and I bet the Broncos last week, but the injuries on offense will be tough to overcome here. Courtland Sutton could return from a concussion in Week 18, but the Broncos are out of the playoff race and don’t have a ton of incentive to play him. Marvin Mims Jr. also picked up a hamstring injury and didn’t play in Week 17 as a result. The Broncos had a 42% success rate in the 16-9 win, they badly struggled in the red zone and it’s hard to see why this total is so high given the quarterback quality.
The Raiders offense managed just 13 points against a very middling Indianapolis defense until the final prevent drive in the final five minutes down two scores. The Raiders offense is bottom seven in success rate since Week 11.
Unless the Raiders are getting multiple defensive scores again, how is this total above the key number of 37?
Verdict: Bet Under 38 (-110; bet365)
The potential weather has seriously deflated the total and it’s a classic example where you can play against the early week weather reports. There’s a potential for snow and winds of 10-15 mph for this game, but the total is too low regardless at just 41. The Eagles were one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the first half of the season, but the defensive numbers have nosedived as the pass rush and run-stopping units have worn down this year. Arizona didn’t punt a single time in Philadelphia last week and scored a touchdown on all four of its second-half possessions. The Eagles defense is a bottom-five unit against both the run and the pass since the bye week in Week 9. The switch to Matt Patricia as defensive coordinator has led to some bizarre personnel decisions, including dropping star pass rusher Haason Reddick into coverage more than he ever has as an Eagle last week.
These two teams played on Christmas Day in Philadelphia with Tommy DeVito as the quarterback and the total closed 43.5. Tyrod Taylor is a multiple-point upgrade over DeVito and even Taylor moved the ball well in the second half against this defense. The Giants managed at least 30 yards on all four full drives in the second half on Christmas. There’s some hand-wringing about the Eagles offense, but it’s still moving the ball at an elite rate. It’s all about these two defenses being bottom five units.
Philadelphia has struggled against the blitz overall but the Giants don’t have the personnel to stop the Eagles in the run game. Even if Devonta Smith doesn’t play — I don’t expect him to — the total should be 42-43.
I’d bet the over at the key number of 41 or better.
Verdict: Bet Over 41 (-110; bet365)
The regular season concludes with the AFC East Championship game on Sunday Night. Buffalo has completely saved its season since the bye week with four consecutive wins, but the offense isn’t close to operating at peak efficiency right now. The only high-quality game they’ve played was the win against the Cowboys at home when they dominated the line of scrimmage and ran all over Dallas. The other three games against the Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots were quite mediocre offensively. They hit a few explosive plays to make it work against the Chargers and squeak out that win but began the game with three straight punts against a bad defense. Kansas City’s currently inept offense had a higher net success rate in that game. Then Josh Allen started Sunday’s game against New England with seven completions on 20 attempts. The offense averaged 4.1 yards per play.
The Bills offense since the bye week:
- 23rd in passing success rate
- 15th in dropback EPA
- 9th in overall success rate
- 12th in overall EPA per play
The offense isn’t executing at nearly high enough of a level to warrant a total in the 50s for a road game. As much as Miami’s defense is depleted now due to injuries, both defenses are designed in this game to take away explosives. The Bills will play two high safeties and bracket coverage over the top on Tyreek Hill. The lack of a third receiver showed itself last week now that Jaylen Waddle is hurt. The Dolphins defense under Vic Fangio won’t get much pressure without Jaelen Phillips and now Bradley Chubb, but Allen’s non-Stefon Diggs receivers aren’t reliable.
Since Week 13, Miami’s offense isn’t blowing teams away either. They’ve been considerably more methodical in the last few weeks and as a result, this total is too high in the 50s.
Verdict: Bet Under 50 (DraftKings)
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