NFL Picks & Predictions: Expert Bets for Every Wild Card Game
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott (left), Patrick Mahomes (center) and Jordan Love.
NFL Picks & Predictions: Expert Bets for Every Wild Card Game
The NFL regular season concluded on Sunday and that means there are just 13 games left in the NFL season. The playoffs begin on Saturday in Houston as the Browns visit the Texans and Super Wild Card Weekend will conclude on Monday Night Football as the Eagles visit the Buccaneers.
I have four NFL picks & predictions for the Wild Card Round, one lean and one pass for this round of games as of Tuesday afternoon, although two of them are very specific and were only available at one sportsbook.
While the three NFC games will be played indoors (Detroit and Dallas) or in Tampa Bay this weekend, weather is sure to play a role in both outdoor AFC playoff games in Buffalo and Kansas City.
My NFL picks during the regular season were 58-36-2 (61.7%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post. Here are my thoughts on all six Wild Card round games.
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| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Picks | Wild Card Round |
Passes
This is a difficult game to bet on Tuesday because of the major uncertainty with the weather. There’s a major storm system moving through the Midwest and Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, we’ll start to get a better picture of what the weekend system will look like.
The trend in the weather modeling is to speed up the secondary storm and move it through northeastern Canada more quickly. This would result in less absurd conditions in Buffalo for kickoff on Sunday.
Even still, a major low-pressure system in northeastern Canada will result in heavy northwest winds off the lake and straight into Buffalo. The current forecast is for 25-30 mph winds and the chances of lake-effect snow cannot be ruled out either. The total crashed below 35 briefly at some books and has now been bet back up to the current 36.5 total.
It’s really hard to draw up the path for the Pittsburgh offense winning this game on the road with a non-mobile QB playing in high winds and an offense predicated on making tight-window, boundary throws. The Steelers have run the ball considerably better in the last three weeks against the Bengals, Seahawks and resting Ravens, and it’s going to be extremely conservative from Mike Tomlin’s squad.
You can run on Buffalo, who ranks 17th in rush defense DVOA, 24th in EPA per rush and 14th in rushing success rate allowed. The Bills lost WR Gabe Davis and CB Rasul Douglas on Sunday to minor but not insignificant injuries. The status for both is up in the air, although Douglas said, “I’m going to get through it.”
The Steelers will be without T.J. Watt due to his MCL sprain, which is a huge loss for a defense that was eighth this season in success rate and seventh in EPA per play while also playing a pretty favorable schedule of opposing quarterbacks.
The key difference in this game is that Buffalo has found a running game in the second half of the season. Also, Allen’s legs and superior arm strength are major keys in games that could feature very few points and lots of wind. I agree with the initial move on Buffalo to -10, but this game is a pass for me until we get more clarity on the weather.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
The minute that Detroit clinched the NFC North, the possibility of this matchup in Round 1 became the most intriguing battle of the entire slate. Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit. Jared Goff vs. Sean McVay. Two upstart offenses riding the wave of their young production across the board. Between Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Jameson Williams and established stars Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cooper Kupp, there’s a reason this total is the highest of Wild Card Weekend at 51.5.
For me, this matchup hinges on two key matchups.
Williams has been an elite runner for the Rams, and he’ll face off against the No. 1-ranked run defense DVOA in the entire NFL in Detroit. It’s strength vs. strength and gives McVay a real decision to make with regard to how heavily he relies on the passing game. The Rams offense is at its best when it can use the run game effectively on early downs, but it’s very +EV to go pass-heavy against a porous Lions secondary that allowed 400 passing yards to Nick Mullens twice in three weeks.
The second key matchup is the huge issues the Rams have on special teams. In a tightly lined game with such high stakes, the Rams' horrendous special teams are an issue. The punt and kick coverage lost them a game in Baltimore, nearly lost them a game to the Giants and the kicking game is one cut player away from open tryouts.
Detroit’s special teams are right around league average, but the Rams' issues on the margins could well cost them this game and the special teams are the clearest difference between the two teams.
The middle of the Rams defense is quite soft and that’s where the Lions really could use Sam Laporta to exploit them. He still has a shot to play, but it seems like a long shot given he was carted off on Sunday.
Both offenses are top eight in series success rate since Week 8. Stafford is the better quarterback in this matchup and McVay’s familiarity with Goff’s strengths and weaknesses has to give some help to Raheem Morris’ defense in this matchup.
Three is the right number for this spread, so I’d bet Los Angeles at +3.5 or better and hope the Rams can drop back Stafford as much as possible to throw all over the Lions' bottom-five secondary.
Verdict: Lean Rams +3, Bet Rams +3.5 (-115 or lower)
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NFL Picks | Wild Card Round
Cleveland has officially earned the title of everyone’s favorite dark horse because Joe Flacco is gunslinging the ball all over the field and the defense is still one of the best in the NFL. “No one wants to play Cleveland,” is your favorite pundit’s favorite cliché.
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans are at home now after essentially winning a road playoff game seven days ago. Stroud has played on the biggest stage in consecutive years and had two of his best games ever. His college semifinal performance against Georgia wowed everyone, and he followed that up with a dynamite showing on the road in Indianapolis on Saturday. The offensive play calling was far too conservative and run-heavy for most of that game, and it wasn’t until offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik finally dialed up more pass plays and unlocked Stroud. He took over the game by going 7-for-7 on the final drive and throwing a touchdown.
While Houston calls early-down runs at far too high of a rate, Cleveland has thrown the ball way more often on early downs since Flacco became the starter. He’s made some impressive throws but he’s also made a ton of mistakes and gotten away with a handful of them too. The Browns have been an over machine as a result of Flacco’s style. He has eight interceptions and eight turnover-worthy plays, but he’s also averaging eight yards per attempt. Stroud sits at 8.2, among the best in the NFL.
Cleveland closed -3.5 in Houston against Davis Mills and Case Keenum for their matchup in Week 16, and the total closed at 39.5. What has really changed between these two teams since then? The gap between Keenum and Stroud is more than a full point, even through three. The total has bumped up a bunch
The Browns defense isn’t nearly as good away from home as it has been in Cleveland. The Texans had some problems with the crowd noise in Indianapolis along the offensive line last week that should be nullified at home.
Cleveland has allowed 5.5 yards per play on the road this year compared to 3.7 at home. They’ve had 32 sacks at home and just 17 away from home too.
Monitor the Texans wide receiver injuries closely and look to bet Houston at +3 or higher. As of 2:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday afternoon, PointsBet was the only sportsbook with Texans +3 posted.
Verdict: Bet Texans +2.5, bet Texans +3
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The Chiefs opened as a favorite of less than a field goal and it didn’t take long for the market to move across the key number of three to the current KC -3.5 or -4 price as of Tuesday.
The weather will play a real factor here. The high temperature in Kansas City is nine degrees on Saturday, and the expected game-time temperature is in the single digits with 10 mph winds. Kansas City closed as a 2.5-point favorite for a neutral site game in Germany, and it’s hard to price the Dolphins better now than they were heading into that game at 6-2.
The primary reason to downgrade Miami is the injuries across the board. The Dolphins' top two pass rushers are out — Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb — and the Dolphins weren’t really able to get to Josh Allen on Sunday consistently. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will probably play, but he’s unlikely to be near peak effectiveness and has a high risk of suffering another injury. The Dolphins also lost key linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel against Buffalo and while the defense only allowed 14 points, Buffalo moved the ball at will.
A week after conceding 56 to Baltimore, Buffalo had 26 first downs, 6.1 yards per play and 473 total yards in Miami on Sunday. The defense was on the field for a whopping 77 plays in high leverage, while Kansas City rested key starters and played its game against the Chargers in second gear. The Chiefs have a considerable rest advantage as a result of the play and effort differential, especially considering Miami played Sunday night and has a short week to travel.
The Dolphins faced Buffalo twice, Philadelphia, Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore this season. That’s six games against playoff teams, and Miami finished those games 1-5 with a -91 point differential. The Dolphins defense faced one of the three easiest schedules of opposing offenses in the entire NFL this year and some of its metrics are inflated as a result.
The path to success for Miami in this game is leaning on the run game. The Dolphins managed 5.6 yards per carry in the first game and the Chiefs defense is 27th in rushing DVOA, compared to fifth against the pass.
Tua Tagovailoa is also a part of the trend of first-time playoff quarterbacks, and their history of performance hasn't been good. QBs making their first playoff start against QBs who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 (32.7%) against the spread and 17-36 straight-up since 2002. In these playoffs, that applies to Stroud, Tagovailoa, Mason Rudolph and Jordan Love.
Tagovailoa has the biggest delta between EPA per dropback when in a clean pocket vs. EPA per dropback when pressured. As he faces superior opponents who can move him off his spot, his efficiency falls off considerably.
It will fly under the radar because the Chiefs barely squeaked the game out, but Kansas City had one of its best offensive games of the year against the Bengals. The Chiefs managed seven yards per play and 373 total yards. The Bengals defense is below average, but I’m not convinced the current version of Miami is anything better than a league-average defense either.
The Chiefs did get Travis Kelce a week off last week, which could provide some rest to spark some much-needed production from him in this offense. It’s hard to lay points with the Chiefs offense, but the spot, weather and matchup all favor Kansas City here.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Caesars was the only sportsbook with a moneyline that fits my threshold, which is -200 or better.
Verdict: Bet Kansas City ML -195 (Bet to -200)
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Dak Prescott and Jordan Love finished first and second respectively in touchdown passes in the NFL during the regular season, and these prolific passers will face off indoors in Dallas. It’s also the Mike McCarthy revenge game as the Cowboys' dominant offense at home faces the much-maligned Joe Barry defense.
The key to this game is whether Love can keep up against a vulnerable, but ball-hawking, Dallas secondary. The Cowboys defense is very quietly 27th in success rate since Week 12 and 19th in EPA per play. You can move the ball on Dallas, and I expect Green Bay to do so through the air.
Dallas is also 29th in success rate allowed on dropbacks, which is ahead of only Washington, Arizona and Seattle in that timeframe. Since Week 9, the Cowboys offense is first in series success rate and the Packers offense ranks fourth. Love’s accuracy has taken a huge step forward and I fully expect these offenses to face little resistance. Even playing without key offensive weapon Christian Watson, Love has found breakouts from Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks throughout the second half of the year to propel the offense.
Both coaches have shown aggressive fourth-down decision-making tendencies around midfield, as well, which is key to an over. The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and it’s clear that the offense took some time to jell as a result of that. Love has had a couple of middling games in the second half, but the Packers offense is top three in the second half and top five for the season in EPA per play.
The Packers had an excellent defensive showing in division games against Minnesota and Chicago to close the season, but I still believe the Packers defense has a ton of holes. The pass rush is below league average, and this is the same secondary that allowed Baker Mayfield, Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young to have the best games of their seasons over the past six weeks.
Green Bay’s elite offensive line can hold up against Dallas' pass rush and do enough to keep this game close and high-scoring. The Cowboys have a major edge in the kicking game and the defense will get an extra stop to win, but this total should be at least 51.
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It's really difficult to confidently make a bet on either side at the current number. Baker Mayfield’s performances over the past two weeks suggest that he’s not at all healthy. The Buccaneers were shut out for three quarters against New Orleans and then went to Carolina and didn’t score a touchdown in a relatively fortunate 9-0 win against the league’s worst team.
If Mayfield were healthier, I think you’d have to play Tampa Bay given the current state of the Eagles defense. Chris Godwin can operate out of the slot and dominate the Eagles linebackers. There’s no clear foil in the secondary for Mike Evans either. The Eagles defense has been carved open by Kyler Murray and Tyrod Taylor in the past two weeks and appears to be heading in the wrong direction under Matt Patricia.
Then there are the offensive concerns for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offense is heavily reliant on the success of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith winning isolation routes on the outside. Smith didn’t play last week and Brown left the game with a knee injury. Jalen Hurts dislocated his finger during the loss and could have some residual pain while throwing on Monday night. We won’t really know just how healthy those three players are until they take the field.
The strength of the Buccaneers defense is up front against the run, and that unit can force the Eagles to be quite methodical and slow to grind the number of possessions down in this game. Philadelphia also has major problems against the blitz that it hasn't been able to solve all year long. No team in the NFL has seen more blitzes than the Eagles, and few teams in the NFL blitz as much as Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers.
Given all of the concerns about the health of Mayfield and the Eagles’ troubles against the blitz, the under is the bet here, similar to the first matchup. It’s been bet down from 45 and I wouldn’t play it lower than 43.5.
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