NFL Player Props: Expert Bets on Jared Goff, Desmond Ridder, More
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions
Kirk ran 61% of routes from slot the last two weeks while Zay Jones was out with 70.6% of his targets still coming from the slot. Even if Jones doesn't return from his knee injury for the Jaguars' early showdown with the Bills in London, there is still value here.
Bills nickelback Taron Johnson has been a monster this season, allowing targets on just 9% of routes faced for a measly 0.88 yards per route covered. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in defensive DVOA against passes under 15 yards and Kirk is averaging a career-low aDOT of 7.5 yards.
Jones was limited in practice all week and seems optimistic about returning, which would force Kirk into the slot even more. Bet this to 54.5.
This is a great buy-low spot for Flowers. He got the fewest targets and receptions of the year in the Ravens' Week 4 blowout win over the Browns and now Rashod Bateman is returning to the lineup and Odell Beckham Jr. could be back in the fold.
Even when both Bateman and Beckham played, Flowers still averaged over 80% of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 with 13 receptions in the two games. He'll have even more upside here if Beckham sits.
The Steelers lead the NFL in defensive DVOA against tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest targets to the position. They are also bottom half in targets allowed to running backs and it's likely Lamar Jackson will look to his wideouts a ton here.
With winds over 15 mph and a potential for rain, we should expect more short targets in this matchup and Flowers has the lowest aDOT of all Ravens wideouts. Play this to -175.
Godd's bad ball rate has hovered around 10% his whole career, including 2023. With 32.5 passes projected and a 20% bad ball INT rate, we project 0.65 INTs on average against league-average defense.
Unfortunately for Goff, the Panthers are right at league average in bad balls forced at 11.8% and have four interceptions on the year. As a Luck Ranking game, there's a solid chance the Panthers keep this closer than expected so Goff's pass attempts could skew a bit higher as well.
I'm projecting +115 as fair here and wouldn't bet it below +130.
Making this bet at BetMGM? Get the latest promo code here.
Montgomery grabbed two short receptions in Week 4 with the Lions leading by two possessions, however this came against a Packers team that has given up the seventh-most pass attempts to running backs.
Carolina has a similar ratio of plays leading by seven or more to plays trailing by seven or more as Green Bay, yet has given up the seventh-fewest targets per game to RBs.
Montgomery has caught all three of his targets so far this year, which is obviously going to regress at some point.
Even with pass-catching back Jahmyr Gibbs doubtful, backup Craig Reynolds has proven himself in limited time as a pass-catching back hauling in nine of 10 targets last year in just 116 snaps. There should still be value here thanks to the Panthers funneling passes away from running backs.
I have this closer to -150 and would bet it to -135
Ridder has a career bad ball rate of 15.8% and is coming off an awful game against Jacksonville where he threw nine bad balls for two interceptions.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
