Ryan Fitzpatrick Week 4 Prop: Will Bucs QB Continue Record 400-Yard Streak?


Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) in the second half in the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Raymond James Stadium.

Sep 27, 2018, 12:24 AM EDT
  • In response to Ryan Fitzpatrick's streak of 400-yard games, one sportsbook has set a special passing yards total prop at 399.5.
  • The odds on the over are +300, while the under is listed at -500.
  • According to The Action Network's Sean Koerner's projections, the under is the value play.

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs shocked pretty much the entire football world by opening the season with wins over the Saints and Eagles. Through two games, Fitzpatrick had thrown for 819 yards, eight touchdowns and only one interception.

Tampa’s win streak came to an end Monday night with a 30-27 loss to Pittsburgh.

As for Fitzpatrick, however …

his streak of consecutive 400-yard games is still alive heading into Week 4.

Accordingly, oddsmakers are offering bettors a chance to cash in on the FitzMagic.

>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 3 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Total Passing Yards in Week 4 — Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Over 399.5 (+300)
  • Under 399.5 (-500)

To put those numbers into perspective, the +300 line implies a 25% chance of Fitzpatrick hitting 400 yards, and the -500 implies an 83.33% chance he stays under that mark.

According to The Action Network’s Sean Koerner, Fitzpatrick’s true probability lies around 10% — significantly below the 16.66% needed to give the under a positive expected value — so even being generous and allowing for some more fluky FitzMagic on Sunday would only put this probability close to 15%.

I’ll never judge a bettor not willing to lay a -500, but if you’re looking to find value on this prop, that’s your play.

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