We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 14.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Saints vs Buccaneers, Commanders vs Vikings among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for later in the day for Bears vs Packers and Broncos vs Raiders. We also have bets for Dolphins vs Jets, Rams vs Cardinals, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 14 of the NFL season on December 7.
NFL Player Props Week 14
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Dolphins vs. Jets
Tua Tagovailoa Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Since Tyreek Hill went down in Week 4, Miami has the 6th-lowest neutral pass rate (55%).
Over the last six weeks, that number has tumbled to 46.4%, which is the lowest mark in the league. Miami has gone 4-1 in that span, so the approach is working.
The Dolphins are also on a three-game winning streak. Tua Tagovailoa hasn't topped 23 attempts or 175 passing yards in that stretch.
The Jets have seen the 3rd-lowest opponent passing rate per game. They've allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game, largely due to the low volume.
Teams have opted to run the ball against the Jets, with great success. I'm expecting plenty of De'Von Achane in this one.
I'd be fine with Tagovailoa under 27.5 attempts as well. That route feels a little more reliant on Miami playing with a lead though.
We can get there with the yardage, even if Miami can't control the game like they have recently.
Tagovailoa is averaging 190 passing yards per game this season.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Commanders vs. Vikings
Chris Rodriguez Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Chris Prince
This line has already started to climb on some other books, so I'm locking in the over 40.5 before it's gone.
While the Commanders will continue to utilize multiple running backs, Chris Rodriguez has emerged as the starter and the guy that will get the biggest share of carries in this backfield.
Rodriguez has gone over this number in three of his last four games, with two of those games coming against Denver and Seattle, who both rank in the top-7 in the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs this season.
He gets a much better spot this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed the 7th-most rushing yards per game to running backs (107.2).
Over their last six games, the Vikings have allowed an average of 139.2 rushing yards, and they've held only one of those teams under 125 rushing yards.
Pick: Chris Rodriguez Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD (+160)
Emeka Egbuka hasn't been great the last few weeks, but the talent is still there, and even if Mike Evans comes back, these odds are too high.
Egbuka leads the Buccaneers in red-zone targets (13).
The Saints have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season and have been much more susceptible in the passing game.
I have the true odds of Egubka scoring around +130.
Pick: Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD (+160)
Titans vs. Browns
Tyjae Spears Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Tyjae Spears has nine carries for six yards over the past three games for the Titans. Tony Pollard has been the clear lead rushing option, with Spears handling the passing-game work.
Cleveland has held running backs to the 3rd-fewest yards per carry.
Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog on the road in this spot.
It's just hard to see Spears getting enough volume to overcome the matchup.
Pick: Tyjae Spears Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Bears vs. Packers
Jordan Love Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-112)
By Chris Prince
This is a huge game for both of these teams vying for the top spot in the NFC North, and while the total sits at a middling 44.5, I believe we'll get some solid offensive performances.
The Packers are certainly a run-first team, but Love is very capable through the air and is starting to get some of his weapons back.
Love has gone over this number in half of his games this season, and the Bears have allowed 235.5 passing yards per game.
Weather doesn't look to be a huge factor here. It will definitely be cold, but there doesn't look to be any precipitation or wind concerns.
We have Love projected for 236 passing yards, and I am aligned with that projection, making this line a bit too low for me and one I want to attack on Sunday.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Broncos vs. Raiders
Pat Bryant Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Kyle Murray
This number is far too low considering Pat Bryant has 40+ yards in four of his last five games.
Bryant has slowly but surely been taking over as the WR2 in this Denver offense, and last week, he ranked 2nd in routes run and actually led the team in targets.
He now gets a good matchup against a Raiders team that has allowed the 8th-most receiving yards per game to WRs this season.
Pick: Pat Bryant Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Rams vs. Cardinals
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+105)
By Grant Neiffer
I get that Davante Adams has taken away a lot of Kyren Williams' TD equity, but there is no reason that Williams should be at plus-odds in this spot.
Despite Adams' massive tear recently, Williams has still scored five TDs in the last five games, and a team-high 36 red-zone touches (and 11 touches within the 5-yard line).
The Cardinals are much easier to attack on the ground; they have a bend-but-don't-break defense, meaning long chunk plays are less likely.
I have Williams projected north of a 50% chance of scoring, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+105)
Broncos vs. Raiders
Troy Franklin Anytime TD (+240)
By Grant Neiffer
Troy Franklin has been having a good season, with five TDs and 530 receiving yards thus far.
The matchup against the Raiders is good, as they have been a below-average pass defense this season, and they have been especially bad at defending WRs, giving up the 5th-most TDs (15).
Franklin ranks 2nd on the Broncos in yards per route run against zone coverage, which the Raiders have played at one of the highest rates in the league.
Despite Courtland Sutton being the WR1, Franklin leads the team in red-zone targets (14) and has double the amount of targets inside the 5-yard line compared to any other player on the team.
I have the true odds here around +200.
