NFL Week 14 gets going with the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.
The Cowboys enter TNF on three-game winning streak highlighted by wins over the Eagles and Chiefs. The Lions, meanwhile, have alternated wins and losses since Week 6 and are dealing with a plethora of injuries.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Cowboys vs Lions preview, which includes six picks for TNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Lions WR Isaac TeSlaa in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his receiving yards prop. Find my over/under prop bet for TeSlaa below.
NFL Prop Bet: Isaac TeSlaa Over/Under Prediction
Isaac Teslaa was one of my favorite rookies heading into the season. I thought he could be overlooked as a third-round pick, especially since he was set to open the year as the Lions' 4th-5th target in this offense.
I considered TeSlaa a “Dollar Store” version of Puka Nacua. Before anyone takes the comp the wrong way, remember I called it “Dollar Store,” and, Teslaa, himself, has said he models his game after the superstar WR.
Just because you try to emulate someone doesn’t mean you’ll be as good, obviously, but the remarkable part of Nacua’s story is that he lacked strong measurables and went in the fifth round. Nacua turned into arguably the best WR in the NFL right now, a great player to try to emulate imo.
Teslaa, by contrast, entered the league with elite measurables and owns the second-highest athleticism score in this year’s WR class.
So why does he only have six catches on the season?
I explained it above: he’s been buried on the depth chart; he's on a team already stocked with established pass-catchers.
Tonight, however, could be his first real shot to truly ball out. The Lions could be without Amon-Ra St. Brown, who left the Thanksgiving game early with an ankle injury.
St. Brown hasn’t practiced this week, and the Lions are still holding out hope he can play so there remains a chance he suits up (he seems closer to doubtful though). If he’s ruled out, I expect this number for TeSlaa to jump up a few yards, which is why I’d rather get ahead of it.
As for the Lions' tight ends, Sam LaPorta is on IR and even backup Brock Wright is out.
Jared Goff typically gets rid of the ball fast, working through his first couple reads before taking a shot. I’m guessing having a full week to plan for TeSlaa being higher in the pecking order should push his target rate up quite a bit (I’m projecting around 17-18% if St. Brown is ruled out).
When TeSlaa has been targeted this year, it’s produced multiple highlight-reel catches and TDs. The outcomes are wide, given his boom-or-bust target profile, but the added chance tonight gives him more “boom” paths than usual, especially against a Cowboys defense that has been very beatable this season.
With more coverage attention likely going to Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs, there could be moments where Teslaa finds opportunities to make his targets count.
Did you really think I would sit out this game, and not bet on my guy, Teslaa? It’s tough to be overly strict on a median projection, because, for him, this is still uncharted territory.
TeSlaa hasn’t cleared 36+ yards yet this season, but I do have his median closer to 43.5, with around a 60% chance to get past 36.5. This is a bet that leans on talent and opportunity more than anything.
Pick: Isaac TeSlaa Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
