NFL Week 5 concludes begins with Chiefs vs Jaguars on Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs enter MNF on a two-game winning streak after dropping 37 points on the Ravens. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have won two straight as well following a road win over the 49ers.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Chiefs vs Jaguars preview, which includes five picks for the game.
Tonight, I'm targeting Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco in the prop market as I suspect this could be a tough spot for him in terms of matchup and potential game script.
Find my Isiah Pacheco over/under bet below.
Isiah Pacheco Props: Over/Under Prediction for MNF
Isiah Pacheco has cleared this number in back-to-back games, but I think tonight is a good time to sell high on him.
Pacheco has faced stacked boxes on only 6% of his rush attempts this season, which is the lowest rate in the league. It makes sense — defenses are more worried about Patrick Mahomes than a Pacheco run play. And despite the favorable run conditions, Pacheco is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry (-0.5 below expected, per NextGenStats).
Not only do the Jaguars have a solid run defense (9th in DVOA), but they seem perfectly equipped to slow down Pacheco because they have stacked the box at a league-low rate of 7%. They have received good run support from all three levels of the defense, with Foyesade Oluokun leading a LB group that has 17 run stops.
Safety Eric Murray (former Texan) has been a difference-maker as well, posting four stops with an average depth of tackle at 5.8 yards downfield, which has been key in limiting explosive runs. CB Tyson Campbell has been excellent in run support with three stops himself, and he could be key with Pacheco bouncing outside more than usual this year.
Therefore, the Jaguars have not needed to stack the box since the entire unit has been solid in run support, which should make it even tougher for Pacheco.
Chiefs rookie RB Brashard Smith is starting to get more involved in the offense as well, which has pushed Kareem Hunt to more involvement on early downs (at the expense of Pacheco). The one area Pacheco was still able to lead the team was usage in the two-minute offense, which is not ideal in terms of rushing production.
I also think Jaguars +3.5 is getting most of the sharp action tonight and the Chiefs probably have a higher chance of facing a trailing game script than the prop market is implying. Plus, the Jaguars' run game has been super efficient and has allowed them to dominate time of possession, which could eat into K.C.’s overall volume.
All of this leads me to have Pacheco’s median closer to 25 yards, with around a 61% chance to stay under 29.5.
