The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) host the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) on Monday Night Football on Oct. 6. Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on ESPN and ABC.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on the spread (Chiefs -3.5), with the game total set at 45.5. Kansas City is a -205 moneyline favorite and Jacksonville is a +170 underdog.
Continue below for our Chiefs vs Jaguars picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under and three player props.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Monday Night Football Odds
- Chiefs vs Jaguars Moneyline: Chiefs -205, Jaguars +170
- Chiefs vs Jaguars Spread: Chiefs -3.5, Jaguars +3.5
- Chiefs vs Jaguars Total: 45.5
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds via bet365
Chiefs vs Jaguars Spread Prediction
The Chiefs will make another statement on Monday night as they continue to get their swagger back offensively.
The return of Xavier Worthy paid huge dividends for an offense that likely centered the entire passing attack around their most explosive element.
The Jaguars allowed 8.1 yards per attempt to an injured Brock Purdy last week and they are the only defense that has made Jake Browning look like a viable quarterback this season.
The Jaguars have generated 13 turnovers this season, but their luck is about to run out. They are +9 in turnover margin through four games, which has inflated their perception by the public.
Even with the early struggles from the Chiefs offense this year, Patrick Mahomes still has a lower turnover-worthy throw rate than Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence needs to deliver his best outing to keep the Jaguars in this game. Kansas City is sixth in the league in pressure rate, while Lawrence has faced the least amount of pressure of any QB in the NFL.
Lawrence has also yet to make one big-time throw through four weeks. If the Chiefs can get home with their blitz — as they did against Lamar Jackson — the Jaguars are going to have a long night. Lawrence has a very poor 42.7 passer rating when under pressure this season.
Lay the points with the Chiefs — they’ll win this game by 7-10 points.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Chiefs vs Jaguars Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Chiefs offense is an entirely different unit with Xavier Worthy in the lineup. Last week, with Worthy healthy for the first time this season, they scored 37 points against the Ravens after not having topped 22 points in any other game this year.
Some of that was the fault of a bad Ravens defense, but not all.
Worthy made immediate impact, catching 5-of-8 targets for 83 yards. More importantly, he stretched out the Ravens’ defense and created space for other players to operate underneath. Travis Kelce, for example, caught a season-high five passes in Week 4.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense is solid (13th in Defensive DVOA), but not the dominant unit we’ve seen over the past few years. They’ve allowed at least 20 points to every team except the Giants.
The Jaguars are hitting their stride offensively, scoring at least 26 points against every team except the Texans – who are arguably the league’s best defense. I expect that to continue against the Chiefs, meaning both teams should get into the 20s fairly easily.
Therefore, I’m taking the over 45.5 at 105 odds on FanDuel – assuming Worthy, who is questionable, is able to play. We should have inactives around 7 p.m. ET tonight, and I’m fine waiting on the Worthy news to make my decision.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-105)
Chiefs vs Jaguars Player Props: Trevor Lawrence
By Kyle Murray
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has not been super active on the ground this season — he has only cleared this number in one game, but this spot on Monday Night Football could be a good spot for him.
First, the Jags are underdogs, which means a trailing game script could lead to more scrambles on increased dropback volume.
Additionally, the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to QBs this season.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Chiefs vs Jaguars Player Props: Parker Washington
By Kyle Murray
Parker Washington had a rough game last week; he saw just two targets and was unable to bring in any of them.
However, it feels like we are getting a bit of a discount tonight. Washington tied with Brian Thomas Jr. for the most routes run in Week 4.
Dyami Brown will return here after getting in limited practices, but I don't think it is a guarantee that he is slotted right back in over Washington.
Washington also has another path to significant snaps with Travis Hunter playing on both sides. Washington is averaging 12.2 yards per reception since the start of last season, so he has the ability to go over this number on just two or two catches. He is also averaging 0.26 targets per route run, which is the best amongst Jaguars WRs this season.
Pick: Parker Washington Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Chiefs vs Jaguars Player Props: Travis Etienne Jr.
The Jaguars should be able to establish the running game against a Chiefs defense that is bottom 10 against the run.
Last season, the Chiefs only allowed six running backs to reach at least 57 yards (maxing out at 84 yards); this season, three backs (Saquon Barkley, Cam Skattebo, Justice Hill) have already surpassed that mark.
Travis Etienne Jr. usually logs around 14 carries per game at 3-4 yards per carry, but he has also broken free for a long rush of at least 30 yards in three of four games this season.
I like Etienne over 60.5 rushing yards as a base play, as well as a little escalator for his longest rush prop.
Picks:
- Travis Etienne Jr. Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-109; DraftKings)
- 30+ Longest Rush (+600; bet365)
- 40+ Longest Rush (+1200; bet365)
