NFL Prop Picks: Bet Hunter Renfrow’s Over For Chiefs vs. Raiders on Sunday Night Football

NFL Prop Picks: Bet Hunter Renfrow’s Over For Chiefs vs. Raiders on Sunday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Renfrow

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season. He was 77-57 (57.5%) heading into Sunday’s games with a 287-213-5 (57.4%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.


NFL Prop Bet For Chiefs vs. Raiders

  • The Pick: Hunter Renfrow Over 32.5 Rec Yards (-110)
  • Bet Now: FanDuel

We have an excellent “buy low” opportunity on Renfrow, who is a fairly underrated receiver.

He’s coming off of a three-game stretch in which his median receiving yards was 30. But to put that into context, Derek Carr averaged only 143 passing yards over that stretch — that included the windy game at Cleveland and the 25-point win over the Broncos. Overall, the Raiders just didn’t need to throw much over their three-win streak. However, as 7-point underdogs on Sunday night, they will be forced to throw against the Chiefs.

Renfrow has gone for 33 or more yards in five of the six games when Carr has thrown for at least 200 yards. We can expect Renfrow to benefit heavily from tonight’s game script, and my raw model’s projection (before any tweaking) for his yardage is 49.

I would bet this up to 38.5, but it honestly would not shock me if he ended up posting 50 or more yards tonight.

Here are the chances of him going over various yardages based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Yards
Over
Under
32.5
0.581
41.9%
33.5
0.565
43.5%
34.5
0.558
44.2%
35.5
0.551
44.9%
36.5
0.537
46.3%
37.5
0.521
47.9%
38.5
50.6%
49.4%
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