NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks | Wild Card Round
(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images). Pictured: Jaylen Warren.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks | Wild Card Round
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks for the Wild Card Round.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| Packers vs. Cowboys |
| Rams vs. Lions |
| Steelers vs. Bills |
| Eagles vs. Buccaneers |
| Browns vs. Texans |
| Dolphins vs. Chiefs |
As a Cowboys fan, I’m nervous, but not about my own team.
I’m nervous that we’re seeing the evolution of another Packers franchise quarterback who could get his first signature win against Dallas in the postseason. That being said, if Jordan Love is going to come into Jerry World and get a win, he’s going to need to lead Green Bay to at least 25 points, which I’m not convinced he can do.
The main reason why Love and the Pack will need to put up points is the Cowboys offense at home has been scary good this season. They’ve averaged 37.4 points in Arlington and Dak Prescott has reduced mistakes in that environment with only three interceptions to 22 passing TDs.
The Packers defense forced only seven interceptions this season (31st) and had the third-worst INT rate per dropback, so the chances of Prescott turning it over are lower in this matchup.
Another reason Prescott could have success is the Packers' pass defense has struggled all season. If you’re just using DVOA, it paints an awful picture:
- 26th in DVOA vs. the pass
- 26th in DVOA vs. the run
- 26th in DVOA vs. WR1s
- 28th in DVOA vs. deep passes
- 26th in DVOA vs. short passes
- 26th in DVOA vs. TEs
Those metrics make it hard to bet on Cowboys TD scorers because it legitimately fits nearly any skill-position player.
CeeDee Lamb will see plenty of volume, but his ATD odds at -125 at best. Instead, why not look at Brandin Cooks at +230? He scored eight touchdowns and has found the end zone in each of the last three games he’s played. He’s also fared well at home, scoring in five of seven games in Dallas with catches of 20 yards or more in all but one game. If you wanted to take a long shot on someone like Kavontae Turpin at +800, I wouldn’t hate that either.
Another long-shot bet I like is Love to rush for a TD at +800. He rushed for four TDs this season and got into the end zone in Weeks 16 and 17 on the road. The Packers will likely be missing AJ Dillon; Aaron Jones has been effective in certain snaps and a dud in others. If Green Bay gets within the five-yard line, I’d rather have a ticket on Love than bank on Jones at +137 considering he hasn’t scored since Week 5.
Verdict: Bet Brandin Cooks TD at +230 and Jordan Love TD at +750.
The Rams will be a very public 'dog in this playoff game because of Matthew Stafford-Detroit nostalgia and the recency bias of the Rams winning the Super Bowl in 2021. And, let’s face it, Stafford throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is just fun.
That's part of the reason why this game has the highest total. The other? Jared Goff puts up points at home. The Lions average 30.5 points per game at Ford Field, with Goff producing a sterling 19:3 TD:INT ratio.
For the Rams, it may be super chalky, but Kupp and Nacua have been nearly unstoppable when facing man coverage, a defense the Lions play at the 10th-highest rate. I’m seeing both of them listed around +120, which is slightly below what I’m looking for. If you can get +140 or better on either, grab it. Another option would be to wait until closer to kickoff to see if sportsbooks increase the odds.
There’s a slight chance the Rams get caught in a trailing game script and have to play catchup, which would result in more passing. It doesn’t help that the Lions ranked second in DVOA vs. the run this year. The idea of Kyren Williams going for two TDs at +450 is just slightly below value for me.
It was a bummer to see Sam LaPorta go down with an injury in Week 18. His status is up in the air — if he doesn’t play, I’d consider Brock Wright at +450. The Rams were 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass, 23rd in DVOA vs. TEs and gave up eight TDs to the position.
Wright has been nursing a hip injury so he may be a bit rusty, but we’ve seen him catch TDs in this offense prior to LaPorta’s arrival (four TDs in 2022) so I’d take a swing on him before betting on someone like James Mitchell at +310. Only bet Mitchell if he’s +500 or better.
Verdict: Lean to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua at +140 or better. Sprinkle Brock Wright at +450.
A classic Buffalo game is coming and no, I don’t mean offensive fireworks and lots of passing. I’m talking about cold, dreadful weather where it’s miserable to play football and you question why you chose to live there.
While games in these conditions can be entertaining, they don’t lend themselves well to betting Anytime TDs. With 25 mph sustained winds, throwing the ball could prove to be difficult and almost make TDs non-existent. That being said, the angle I like is Defensive and Special Teams for both squads.
For the Bills, it’s +600 and for the Steelers, it’s +1000 — I’m putting 0.25 units on each.
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For the Steelers, this feels like a no-brainer because even if the conditions are windy, Josh Allen is still going to throw — he had 19 interceptions this season. The Steelers had a 2.9% INT rate per dropback and 80 passes defended this season, both top-10 marks. This might be the Steelers' only way to score. With their luck/voodoo/magic or whatever you want to call it, I’d rather bank on that than Mason Rudolph making plays.
Speaking of Rudolph, this could go badly for him if the Bills get off to a fast start. If Buffalo’s pass-rush is winning, Rudolph will have turnovers. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick-six or strip sack. Like the Steelers, the Bills have a high INT per dropback rate (3.3%) and finished in the top 10 in passes defended.
The only other angle I’d consider is Jaylen Warren at +360. He’s a better blocker than Najee Harris and is averaging close to six targets per game. Screen passes and dumpoffs to Warren could be a way for the Steelers to evade the Bills' pass-rush.
Verdict: Bet Bills D/ST TD at +600 & Steelers D/ST TD at +1000. Bet Jaylen Warren TD at +360.
This is another game where we have a sample size to refer to with these teams playing each other in Week 3, but that feels like a lifetime ago when you look at the Eagles and Bucs now.
For the Eagles, their defense hasn’t looked right all year. After breaking the sacks record last year with 70, the Eagles' pass-rush came back to earth with 43 sacks and finishing below league average. Some of that is scheme and coaching, but fact remains this defense is a bit older than most and if their offense is getting them quality leads to sit on, the defense can be exploited.
If you’re betting a Bucs TD scorer, the natural instinct is Mike Evans each week. And you would’ve been right! Evans finished at +12.2U in profit if you had bet him each week, but his odds have continued to plummet as books have adjusted. He’s +110 to score on Monday compared to +165 when he cashed in Week 3.
I’d rather look at the slot in this matchup for the Bucs and take swings on Chris Godwin at +275 and Cade Otton at +450. The Eagles allowed the second-most TDs to WRs this year (27) and were 29th in DVOA vs. the pass.
If Baker Mayfield can stay upright, he’s going to push the ball downfield. If Godwin isn’t enough value for you, take a swing on Otton because the Eagles were 28th in DVOA vs. TEs and allowed the most TDs to the slot. When Evans scored earlier this year on them, he was lined up in the slot.
I’m genuinely worried about what kind of Eagles team we’ll see on Monday. A lot of their key guys — A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Hurts — are dealing with injuries.
With so many question marks, I ended up defaulting to Dallas Goedert at +310 in this spot. Although the Bucs are above average in DVOA when defending TEs (13th), they still allowed the most targets, catches and yards to TEs, to go with 7 TDs.
VERDICT: Bet Chris Godwin +275, Cade Otton +450 and Dallas Goedert +310.
When these teams met in Week 16, I was bullish on running backs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt to score as Cleveland ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (31.2 attempts per game). Ford and Hunt each scored in a blowout win.
Even though that rushing average has declined since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback (25.4 attempts per game), I still like the Browns to run the ball. I’m going back to my old friend Kareem Hunt at +240 to carry the luggage and get us home.
I’m not going to pretend that Hunt is more talented than Ford between the 20s, but he’s always involved in the red zone. Hunt leads the Browns with 36 red-zone touches and, excluding Week 18 when most starters were rested, he had 18 of those just in games with Flacco.
Inside the five-yard line is where Hunt has made his money — he has seven TDs scored from that spot, ranking seventh in the NFL in that category. For reference, Hunt had more TDs inside the five-yard line this season than Joe Mixon, Isiah Pacheco, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.
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I can see the trepidation with taking Cleveland running backs. The Texans rank second vs. the run in DVOA and Flacco has been throwing the ball a lot. Teams haven’t had success between the 20s on the Texans (96 rushing yards allowed per game) but that doesn’t seem to hold up once opponents are in scoring position as they've allowed 19 rushing TDs (tied for 28th).
Although the Texans offer a lot of upside with C.J. Stroud, it could be a tough day to penetrate the Browns' top-ranked pass defense, especially on the outside. The Browns ranked second in DVOA vs. the pass (13 TDs to WR; six TDs to TE) and fourth in DVOA vs. the run (nine rushing TDs allowed).
The Browns play the most man coverage of any team in the NFL, so while my first instinct was to go with Dalton Schultz, he’s seen his numbers fall off a cliff when facing man defense compared to zone.
The only Texan who has thrived against man is Nico Collins. After what we saw last week, when he had almost 200 yards receiving, he might be the most solid look at +140, especially if the Texans find themselves in a negative gamescript.
For this game, Browns TD scorers clearly offer the most upside with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Hunt and Ford all in plus matchups. I get the renaissance of Flacco, but let’s not forget he threw eight interceptions in five games. He’ll chuck it, but I trust head coach Kevin Stefanski to run the ball, control the clock and keep Stroud off the field.
VERDICT: Bet Kareem Hunt TD at +240 and Nico Collins TD at +170.
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Here are my problems with this game: the weather is supposed to be horrible, both offenses haven’t looked great recently and the total is trending down below 44.
So why are ATDs being priced like we’ll see closer to 50 points? The prices for the Chiefs are borderline insane with Travis Kelce at -110 (he hasn’t caught a TD in six games) and Isiah Pacheco favored to score at -120.
If you can find Kelce at +110 or better, I’d consider it since he’s scored in every Chiefs playoff game since losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay (six games). But with how the Dolphins have struggled to stop TEs this year (30th in DVOA vs. TEs), I’d rather take a long-shot bet on someone like Noah Gray at +800. He saw one red-zone target in Weeks 16 and 17. I’d add Gray to my TD portfolio if you can’t find Kelce at plus odds.
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The Dolphins held out a couple of players in Week 18. Notably, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle — the former is who I like the most to score for Miami.
Mostert was sixth in red-zone carries in the regular season with 19 rushes inside the five (most in the NFL). Despite how spectacular rookie De'Von Achane has been, Mostert, who was the co-leader in total totals this season, carries the load when the Dolphins are in striking distance.
Getting Mostert at +130 is decent value. When these teams met in Germany in Week 9, he scored and had odds of -115 entering that game.
VERDICT: Bet Travis Kelce at plus odds; bet Raheem Mostert at +135; sprinkle Noah Gray at +800.
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