NFL Saturday Week 15 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Our first taste of Saturday NFL has arrived and we have three games on tap: Colts-Vikings, Ravens-Browns and Dolphins-Bills.
Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Saturday NFL special edition of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Dec. 17, 12 p.m. ET.
1. Road Warriors
In regular season Saturday games, the road team is 53-31-5 ATS (63.1%) over the past 20 years. Those teams are 10-2-3 ATS since 2018, covering the spread by 6.5 PPG.
2. Captain Comeback
The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings were underdogs last week vs. the 5-7 Detroit Lions. The markets got it right and now the Vikings are playing off a loss. In his NFL career, Kirk Cousins is 36-22 ATS after a SU loss.
Most Profitable QB ATS off a Loss – Past 20 Years
- Tom Brady: 45-24-1 ATS
- Drew Brees: 59-39-2 ATS
- Aaron Rodgers: 45-26-1 ATS
- Andrew Luck: 25-9 ATS
- Kirk Cousins: 36-22 ATS
3. Keep Your Enemies Close
The Browns are 8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs. the AFC North under Kevin Stefanski.
In the past 20 years, Stefanski is the second-least profitable coach ATS vs. his own division, the AFC North (140th of 141 coaches; Joe Philbin is the worst at 5-14-1 ATS).
In December or later vs. AFC North under Stefanski, the Browns are 0-3 ATS.
|TD notes, top props and more|
|Matt Ryan, IND|
|Kirk Cousins, MIN|
IND eliminated == IND L + TEN W + NYJ W or IND L + TEN W + NE W
+ Matt Ryan has excelled on short rest in his career (20-9 ATS), 2nd-best ATS over the past 20 years (behind Philip Rivers) and when he’s on full rest (7 days) or more, he’s just 91-104-4 ATS in his career.
+ Colts are 2-11 against the first half spread this season and are 2-13 in their past 15 first halves ATS dating back to last year. They are also 10-3 to the first half under, 2nd-best of any team in the NFL.
In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-4 2H ATS, too.
+ Colts 9-4 to the under this season – Colts under 14 of past 18 games.
- Colts are 6-7 on a 6-point teaser this season, the worst record of any team in the NFL.
+ In the first half, the under is 10-3 in the Colts 13 games this season, 2nd-best 1h under win percentage this season.
+ Ryan hasn’t had a lot of success vs. good teams. He is 6-12-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU since 2020, 2nd-least profitable QB in the NFL ahead of just Matthew Stafford.
He’s 3-8-1 ATS in his past 11 starts vs. above .500 SU teams
MIN NFC N == MIN W or DET L
+ The Vikings are now 10-3 with a negative point differential (-1 pt diff)
9-0 SU in one-score games
+ Cousins with Vikings: 38-38-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
1p ET or earlier: 47-35-2 ATS
4p ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ Kirk Cousins has played at home off a SU loss six times since the start of last season and the Vikings are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS.
+ Since 2015, Vikings are 19-6 ATS at home after a SU loss, most profitable team in the NFL.
+ With their victory over the Jets in Week 13, the Vikings have won 12 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? December 5, 2021 vs. Lions
+ The Vikings have not been able to take advantage of bad offenses this season for bettors. They are 3-0 SU and 0-2-1 ATS vs. teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG this year. Vikings were 4-1 ATS in that spot between 2020 and 2021.
+ In December or later, it has been profitable to back good teams (66%+ win pct) that have struggled to cover the spread (50% or less ATS win pct) as they have gone 104-78-3 ATS (57.1%) last 20 years.
Lead NFL Receiving Yards Battle:
- Justin Jefferson: 1,500 (N/A now; +150 last week, +800 open)
- Tyreek Hill: 1,460 (N/A now; -120 last week, 18-1 open)
Offensive POY Battle:
- Justin Jefferson: +140
- Jalen Hurts: +275
- Tyreek Hill: +300
- The Vikings have a 76% win percentage with a negative point differential. Over the past 20 years, they are only the third team to play a game in December or later with a 70%+ win percentage and a negative point differential
- 2022 Vikings
- 2020 Browns — Lost in Divisional Round
- 2004 Falcons — Lost in Conference Championship
|Tyler Huntley, BAL|
|Deshaun Watson, CLE|
+ The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games vs. Browns dating back to 2015 and Baltimore is 6-1-1 in its past eight road games in Cleveland.
+ For the Ravens, it’s all about motivation. After coming off facing a divisional opponent, as long as they don’t win by double-digits, they are 39-22-1 ATS in their next game. If they beat that divisional team by double-digits, they are 9-11-1 ATS in their next game under John Harbaugh.
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 7-10 SU/ATS.
+ Games with 10+ MPH winds are 89-58 (60.5%) to the under over the past two seasons. Check the weather report!
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 5-7-1 against the first half spread.
+ Harbaugh has dominated inferior opponents in terms of record. The Ravens are 26-5 SU, but just 15-16 ATS in those games. Of the 31 games, Baltimore has been an underdog three times. They are 3-0 SU/ATS in those games.
+ Ravens since 2017…
- Home: 21-28 ATS (1-5 ATS this season)
- Road: 30-17-1 ATS (5-2 ATS this season)
+ Jackson: 13-20 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road
Jackson vs. Browns: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS (4-1 SU/ATS vs. Stefanski)
CLE eliminated == CLE L + LAC W or CLE L + NYJ W or CLE L + NE W
+ Deshaun Watson’s third start for the Browns is this week.
30-28 SU, 27-29-2 ATS career
Watson is 15-7 SU vs. under .500 SU teams and 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500 SU
Watson is only 10-16-2 (38.5%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
+ Watson was listed as a home favorite 20 times with the Texans and he finished 8-12 ATS.
+ Browns can go under their preseason win total (8) with a loss vs. Ravens.
+ How Browns performed under Jacoby Brissett: 4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)
+ In 11 games with Brissett, Browns produced NFL’s 5th-ranked offense (EPA per drive), trailing only the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in one-score games more to blame for the 4-7 record.
+ Outdoor divisional unders are 29-14-1 (67.4%) this season and 65-42-1 (60.7%) over the past two seasons. Best start for outdoor divisional unders since 2005 and 2nd-best start in the past 20 years.
+ Browns home overs started the year 4-0 and are 0-2 since. All six starts were under Brissett, this will be Watson’s first home start.
+ Stefanski with Browns
- Favorite: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS
- Dog: 6-15 SU, 11-9-1 ATS
+ Browns are 8-8 SU, 4-12 ATS vs. the AFC North under Stefanski.
|Tua Tagovailoa, MIA|
|Josh Allen, BUF|
+ Dolphins can push the over on their preseason win total (9) with a win vs. Bills.
+ Tua hasn’t performed well ATS on a road trip in his career (2nd or more consecutive road games). Tua is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in the 2nd game or later of a road trip and this is the first time he’s played a 3rd straight road game.
+ Tua has started 31 NFL games and played in 32 college games at Alabama in his career, he has never started a game with the temperature below 36 degrees. Saturday is expected to be about 28 degrees.
In the NFL, he’s started three games at 50 degrees or colder and the Dolphins are 0-3 SU/ATS, averaging just 14 PPG.
+ Dolphins are 16-6 SU in past 22 games.
+ Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-4 ATS at home and 6-9-1 ATS away from home in his career.
+ Dolphins are 5-1 to the under at home this season and 5-2 to the over on the road.
+ Tua is 9-5-1 (64%) ATS as an underdog in his career.
Largest Underdog of Tua’s Career
- +15 == at Bills (L 26-11; 2021)
- +7 == vs. Chiefs (L 33-27; 2020)
- +6 == vs. Patriots (W 33-24; 2021)
+ Tua is 4-0 ATS vs. Patriots and 2-3-1 ATS vs. Jets and Bills.
BUF playoffs == BUF W
- Bills are back to favorites to win the Super Bowl at +375, ahead of the Chiefs and Eagles at +450.
+ Bills have won 10 of their past 12 games vs. the Dolphins, including 7-1 in their past eight (lost earlier this season vs. MIA)
+ Dolphins are allowing 24 PPG this season. Josh Allen has excelled vs. good defenses and struggled against bad defenses in terms of covering the spread.
- Vs. teams allowing 24+ PPG: 15-15-4
- Vs. teams allowing less than 24 PPG: 24-16-1
+ Allen has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive home games. In his career, he’s never lost three straight home games ATS.
Bills haven’t lost three consecutive home games ATS since 2016 and haven’t lost four straight ATS at home since 2014.
+ Since 2020, Allen is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in December, the most profitable QB ATS in the month.
+ The under is 9-2 in the Bills past 11 games.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 48-28-3 (63%) against the second-half spread.
In the month of December, Allen is 13-5-1 against the second half spread, covering eight of their past 10 since 2020.
- Allen has 11 interceptions this season, two fewer than current leader Matt Ryan (13), who opened at 40-1 in the preseason. Allen was 25-1 to lead the NFL in interceptions before the season.
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest Saturday Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for the Saturday slate)
|71% of bets vs. Dolphins|
|70% of bets vs. Colts|
|65% of bets at Browns|
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Top Props for Week 15: Matt Ryan, Indianapolis colts
Bet: Under 22.5 completions (-125)
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
- The Favorites Podcast: Fresh off their bye, our Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter look to keep giving gamblers the Kringle Tingles this December with more winning NFL bets. Full of yuletide cheer, the duo breakdown their favorite sides across the NFL slate, including a fishy line in Giants vs Commanders, a Florida team worth betting immediately, and an NFC North ugly ‘dog.
- Action Network Podcast: The weather outside may be frightful, but these bets are so delightful! Action Network hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey look to cozy up by the warming hearth of closing line value this week, as they build their traditional Sunday Six Pack of against the spread picks. It’s all underdogs this week, as the duo targets teams looking to buck public perception and rebound after some tough outings recently.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.