Following week 7’s games, we once again tasked BETSiE with predicting the rest of the NFL season. In the recently concluded week 7, we saw the Minnesota Vikings upsetting the 49ers, the Dolphins losing to the Eagles, and the Chiefs cruising past the Chargers.
On the back of these results, we’ve seen a bit of a shakeup at the top compared to the recent simulation.
Here are the predicted results:
| TEAM | Wins | Losses | Playoffs | Win Division | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl |
| Miami Dolphins | 11.7 | 5.3 | 87.2% | 56.5% | 14.7% | 7.6% |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.7 | 6.3 | 67.1% | 32.3% | 13.1% | 6.9% |
| New York Jets | 7.9 | 9.1 | 28.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| New England Patriots | 5.2 | 11.8 | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 6.5 | 81.6% | 48.7% | 12.7% | 6.6% |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.1 | 6.9 | 66.0% | 25.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.1 | 7.9 | 48.1% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 | 8.5 | 31.1% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.4 | 6.6 | 79.6% | 66.6% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Houston Texans | 8.6 | 8.4 | 35.8% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.7 | 9.3 | 20.6% | 6.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.3 | 9.7 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.6 | 4.4 | 95.6% | 90.1% | 29.6% | 15.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.6 | 8.4 | 28.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | 9.5 | 10.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Denver Broncos | 5.1 | 11.9 | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.6 | 5.4 | 95.7% | 61.6% | 22.5% | 11.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.9 | 6.1 | 85.5% | 36.2% | 14.4% | 7.3% |
| Washington Commanders | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| New York Giants | 5.6 | 11.4 | 6.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.3 | 5.7 | 88.2% | 71.5% | 10.2% | 3.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7.6 | 9.4 | 35.6% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 9.5 | 26.4% | 8.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Chicago Bears | 6.0 | 11.0 | 8.5% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.7 | 8.3 | 48.2% | 30.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.6 | 8.4 | 59.6% | 43.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.3 | 8.7 | 39.6% | 25.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3.7 | 13.3 | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12.2 | 4.8 | 95.6% | 79.0% | 31.6% | 16.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.9 | 8.1 | 60.6% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.3 | 8.7 | 35.0% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.4 | 12.6 | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Despite losing to the Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers are still the favorites to hoist the Lombardi in February, with a 16.5% chance. That is a drop of more than 2% compared to last week's simulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs are climbing the proverbial ladder, as they are now given a 15.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That’s up from 13.7% before last week’s games.
The Miami Dolphins’ hope of winning the Super Bowl has also taken a hit, as their chance has diminished from 10.8% last week to 7.6% ahead of the games this week. They’ve now dropped below the Philadelphia Eagles, who are given an 11% chance of winning. The Eagles saw a similar spike as the Chiefs, as their likelihood of winning has gone up from 8.8% before their win against the Dolphins.
In the AFC North, we saw a dominant performance coming out of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Following this showing, and the Browns’ struggle in Indianapolis, they have now emerged as the favorites to win the AFC North.
The Falcons have dropped a spot in the predicted final standings of the NCF South, and are now predicted to finish behind the Buccaneers. However, both teams are predicted to finish behind the Saints.
NFL Betting Futures
According to the supercomputer, the San Francisco 49ers have the highest chance of winning the Super Bowl (18.6%). The Kansas City Chiefs are in second place, given a 13.7% chance of winning. The Dolphins are given a 10.8% chance, sitting comfortably in third place. BETSiE claims that a Super Bowl between the Chiefs and the 49ers is the most likely matchup, but that we shouldn’t count out the Dolphins, the Eagles, and the Bills for a spot either.
If you want to bet on any of the teams above, or take a flyer on a dark horse, be sure to check out Action's updated NFL futures odds to get the best line on your Super Bowl pick. If you're new to sports betting, read through our detailed sportsbooks reviews and get the best promo code offerings available for the rest of the NFL season!
Methodology
NFL BETSiE simulates the entire NFL season 100,000 times predicting average scores and win-loss probabilities for each game. Heading into the season, each NFL team is rated by expected points for and expected points against, based on previous performance and anticipated progression and regression of each team. BETSiE’s expected points model takes into account the expected points a team earns play-by-play across each NFL game they play.
