Freedman’s NFL Week 15 Trends & Early Bets: Back These Rookie QBs in Big Games
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa.
We have just three weeks left of the 2020 NFL regular season. Unbelievable.
Let’s take a look at some trends for the early Week 15 spreads.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for three games this week.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Note: I am writing this before the Week 14 Sunday Night Football & Monday Night Football games. Results of those contests might impact the historical trend data as well as Week 15 lines below below.
Early Week 15 NFL Picks
Click on a pick to skip to that analysis.
|Dolphins -2.5 vs. Patriots||DraftKings|
|Eagles +6 at Cardinals||FanDuel|
|Browns -4.5 at Giants||FanDuel|
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS
The Dolphins suffered a 33-27 home loss to the Chiefs in Week 14, but they covered the spread of -7/7.5. For the year, they are a league-best 10-3 against the spread (ATS), good for a 48.8% return on investment (ROI).
And this isn’t just a one-year thing.
Since joining Miami before the 2019 season, head coach Brian Flores has driven the Dolphins to 19-10 ATS (26.6% ROI). And if you remove the first month of last season, during which the Dolphins were experimenting all over the team with their personnel, they are 19-6 ATS (46.9% ROI).
As for the Patriots, they are 6-7 ATS this year, and against teams with an ATS win percentage of at least 55%, they are 1-4 ATS.
- Action: Dolphins -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings
- Limit: -5.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Arizona Cardinals
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX
I don’t loath Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury the way that Action Network Podcast producer Matt Mitchell does, but there’s no getting around his utter inability to perform as a home favorite.
Road underdogs are 4-1 ATS (53.1% ROI) against Kingsbury’s Cardinals.
On top of that, the Eagles seem ready to soar with rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts, who last week was a competent 167-1-0 passing and dynamic 18-106-0 rushing en route to a 24-21 victory over the Saints.
It’s sad to say, but without veteran quarterback Carson Wentz, Philadelphia looks like a much better team.
Eagles QBs against the spread in the Doug Pederson era:
– Jalen Hurts: 1-0
– Nick Foles: 9-4
– Carson Wentz: 32-37
– Without Wentz: 10-4
– With Wentz: Not great
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 14, 2020
- Action: Eagles +6 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: +3.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns (-4.5) at New York Giants
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: NBC
Note: I am writing this before the Browns play in the Week 14 Monday Night Football game. Results of that contest might impact the Week 15 spread for Giants-Browns.
Going back to 2004 (the beginning of our BetLabs database), bettors have been able to beat the vig by fading home-field advantage.
- Road: 2,251-2,133-129 ATS | 0.4% ROI
- Home: 2,133-2,251-129 ATS | -4.7% ROI
In general, road teams tend to be sharp, and that means this week I’m betting against the Giants, who have been one of the league’s worst home teams since moving to MetLife Stadium in 2010.
At MetLife, road teams are an A-graded 50-34-2 ATS (16.2% ROI) against the Giants.
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, in particular, is 3-9 ATS at home. Yes, that sound you hear is laughter.
- Action: Browns -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: -5.5 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 882-699-33 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.