Here are my two favorite NFL sides I bet on for Week 11.
I also bet the Jaguars +3 on a purely numbers play since I also believe Jacksonville will be able to run the ball, which is the key to its entire offensive operation. Plus, the Chargers' offensive line is still in shambles, which is not ideal on the road. However, the injury report for the Jaguars ended up being pretty bleak, so it's not something I love as much.
Let's get into my NFL Week 11 picks and predictions for Sunday, November 16.
NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bears vs Vikings
This is more of a fade of the Bears, who have enjoyed quite a bit of good fortune en route to a 6-3 start against one of the league's easiest schedules to date.
Remember that Chicago needed a crazy comeback against the Giants (after Jaxson Dart got hurt) and also beat the Commanders, Raiders and Bengals in the final minutes by a combined six points. This team could easily be sitting at 3-6 instead of 6-3.
No defense has benefited more from turnovers so far this season, which isn't a sustainable formula. Chicago sits at +14 in turnover margin in 2025, in part due to extreme fumble luck. It has only lost two of eight fumbles, while its opponents have failed to recover seven of nine.
If you remove takeaways, the Bears rank 30th in EPA per Play (and 31st in drop back EPA allowed) — essentially tied with two historically awful defenses in Cincinnati and Dallas. And on the more predictable early downs, they rank dead last!
While Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has had a rough start to his career, even he should have no issues moving the ball on this Chicago stop unit that can't generate pressure and can't cover on the back end with Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon on IR.
Bears QB Caleb Williams (who has struggled more on the road in his career) has improved as expected under the tutelage of head coach Ben Johnson.
However, the Bears' passing attack still lacks efficiency. The run game has been dynamite over the past month-plus, but Chicago has also benefited from facing one of the league's easiest schedules of opposing defenses.
Their opponent's 35% winning percentage ranks dead last in the league by a decent margin, with their six victories coming against the Cowboys, Commanders, Raiders, Saints, Bengals and Giants. That's a collection of the league's worst stop units.
Williams deserves credit for the amount of explosive plays he is hitting through the air, but he's still bailing from the pocket too early. He can get away with that against the bottom-feeder defenses, but I'm not sure it will work with great success against a Brian Flores defense that leads the league in pressure rate. There should be quite a few drive-killing negative plays throughout this game.
Conversely, the Vikings have faced the Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, Lions, and Packers over their past five games.
I believe this is a great opportunity to buy low on the relatively healthy Vikings at home (where they have one of the league's best home-field advantages) while selling high on the Bears, who have played the much easier schedule of late.
Pick: Vikings -3
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Ravens vs Browns
After backing the Browns in each of their three home games this season (six of their nine games have been played on the highway), I'm going back to the well with a defense that had as extreme a home/road split as you will see over the past three seasons.
In Cleveland, they just seem to shut everyone down. Look no further than those three aforementioned games against Jordan Love, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. They held those three offenses to 17, 10, and 3 points, respectively.
I expect another game effort against Lamar Jackson, who still doesn't look 100% from a mobility perspective after returning from injury. He just hasn't had the same burst over the past two games, which takes away part of what makes him so special. He may also be a bit more hesitant to use his legs on Sunday, given the field and weather conditions.
Speaking of which, the high winds in the forecast will certainly benefit the Browns, who have no semblance of a downfield passing attack.
The Ravens certainly do feature an explosive passing attack that could take advantage of the aggressive Cleveland defense, which can struggle in that department. The weather helps neutralize that potential threat.
Cleveland needs to run the ball and rely on short passes (many of which will go to its tight ends). Fortunately, those are two areas where the Baltimore defense can be exploited, given its still-vulnerable defensive line and linebacker room. On the season, the Ravens rank 27th in Rush Success Rate and 26th in Rush EPA.
Getting back to those home/road splits. Over the past three seasons, Cleveland has gone 13-8 ATS (61.9%) at home compared to a league-worst (even worse than the Titans) 5-17 ATS (22.7%) on the road. That's a pretty stunning contrast.
The Browns have only been underdogs of more than a touchdown three times over that stretch. Not only did they cover the spread in all three, but they also won each outright against the 49ers, Packers, and these Ravens.
Trust the healthy Cleveland home defense to keep this close in a game where points should come at a premium.
Pick: Browns +7.5
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