For NFL Week 12, I'm on three spread picks for Falcons vs Saints, Eagles vs Cowboys and Browns vs Raiders.
You can find those NFL predictions and analysis for each game below.
Let's get into my NFL Week 12 picks and predictions for Sunday, November 23.
NFL Week 12 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs. Saints
On the surface, this is a horrendous spot for the Falcons, whose season essentially ended following back-to-back heartbreaking overtime losses to drop to 3-7.
It doesn't help that their defense was on the field for almost 150 plays during those games — one of which came overseas. I wouldn't be shocked if the defense completely wears down in the second half of this game, as we saw last week against Bryce Young (who threw for 448 yards) and the Panthers.
Conversely, the Saints will come off of a bye (which should benefit new starting quarterback Tyler Shough) and find themselves in much better shape from a health perspective. Speaking of which, the Falcons will be without starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and star wide receiver Drake London.
Penix certainly has his flaws, but Kirk Cousins looks completely done at this point in his career. Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 44 plays, Cousins ranks 42nd in EPA+CPOE composite — ahead of only J.J. McCarthy and Dillon Gabriel.
Even more importantly, the loss of London should cripple the Atlanta offense, which has shaky depth at the WR position with all other receivers catching just 13-of-38 targets over the past four games.
With London (who has 38% of Atlanta's receiving yards despite missing a game) on the field, the Falcons averaged 5.63 yards per play compared to 4.43 without him. Meanwhile, the run game drops from 4.67 yards per carry to 3.53. From an EPA per play perspective without London, only the Titans offense has been worse.
We have already seen the Falcons play without both London and Penix at home against the lowly Dolphins. Atlanta lost 34-10.
Plus, if the Falcons try to lean into the run game (which gets much worse without London), that plays into the strength of the Saints defense, which ranks 7th in Rush EPA and 11th in Rush Success Rate.
Lastly, I do like some of the things I have seen so far from Shough, who is at least pushing the ball downfield and should serve as an upgrade over Spencer Rattler for the remainder of the season.
Plus, the Saints should have no problems getting their ground game going against Atlanta's shaky (and fatigued) run defense, especially without Divine Deablo.
Notable Nugget: The Titans have cost bettors more than any other team over the past three seasons at 13-30-1 ATS (30.2%). However, the Falcons (16-28 ATS) and Saints (16-27-1 ATS) aren't too far behind.
Eagles vs. Cowboys
At this point, the Eagles offense is what it is after two lackluster performances coming out of the bye. I'm just not sure they will break out in 2025 under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo.
It's the primary reason Philadelphia continues to struggle to build margin against almost every single opponent. It has eight wins on the season, but seven of those have come by one possession. Dallas should be in this game much like it was in the first meeting to open the season in Philadelphia.
While the Cowboys defense is not great by any stretch, it should be improved against the run moving forward after bolstering the front seven with the acquisitions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, while also getting some others back healthy.
That should help against Saquon Barkley, who will have to make do behind a shorthanded offensive line that will be without stud right tackle Lane Johnson, in addition to potentially starting center Cam Jurgens. Those injuries amay make it more difficult for the Eagles to run some of the jump packages we have seen recently that have given the offense a bit of juice at times.
The back end of the Dallas defense remains suspect, but it does at least play a ton of zone under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. That's exactly the approach you want to take schematically against Jalen Hurts, who has much more pedestrian numbers against zone compared to man.
While the Eagles offense continues to be stuck in neutral, the defense is headed in the opposite direction.
Philly should have one of the stingier stop units in the league the rest of the way after adding Jaelen Phillips and getting some others back healthy with mastermind Vic Fangio calling the shots. However, I do trust the Dallas offense at home to score enough to keep this close with a good chance to pull off the small upset.
While this is a short week for the Cowboys, they did have a bye prior to an easy victory on Monday night where they didn't have to exude much energy. Meanwhile, this will be the Eagles' third game in 13 days following two hard-fought victories over the Packers and Cowboys, which washes out that Dallas disadvantage.
Notable Nugget: Dak Prescott, who continues to play at an MVP level, has historically owned the division with a 31-13 ATS (70.5%) record with a gaudy average cover margin of 6.8 points per game.
Those numbers get even better at home, where Prescott has gone 21-2 SU against NFC East foes. That's the highest intra-division home win percentage in NFL history. His last loss at home to an NFC East opponent came back in 2017!
Browns vs. Raiders
Who wants to lay points with this disgusting Raiders offense that seems broken in every phase from the playcalling to the quarterback play to the shorthanded (and awful) offensive line play?
Well, I guess I do in this very particular scenario, as I just don't think Shedeur Sanders is ready to be an NFL starting-caliber quarterback at the moment. That's based on everything I've heard since the preseason and saw last week against the Ravens.
Dating back to Cleveland's final preseason game against the Rams' backup defense, the Browns have -7 net yards on Sanders' last 31 drop backs. He's struggling to read blitzes and coverages, which in turn is leading him to hold onto the ball for way too long.
You can get away with that in the Big 12, but not against NFL defenses. That's not to say Sanders can't eventually become a functional NFL quarterback, but I just don't think he's currently ready.
Maybe he figures some things out this week, but I'll pay to find out. It's also worth noting that both Cleveland tackles are dealing with nagging injuries, which isn't ideal against Maxx Crosby. Tight end David Njoku also may not suit up.
While the Raiders defense does lack star power outside of Crosby, it has been about a league average when adjusting for opponent (14th DVOA). Patrick Graham is a solid defensive coordinator who generally makes opposing offenses drive the field without getting any explosives. That's going to be difficult for Sanders and this limited Cleveland offense. I also trust him to bring plenty of blitzes.
Admittedly, I do have concerns about Cleveland's defensive line wrecking havoc on a porous Las Vegas offensive line that has only gotten worse following injuries to Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson, but this Browns defense just isn't the same juggernaut away from home, which has been the case for years. Ultimately, I'm just going to trust the functional NFL starting caliber quarterback at home.
Notable Nugget: Over the past three seasons, the Browns have been the most-profitable home team ATS (14-8, 63.6%). However, it's been a completely different story on the road, where they have gone 5-17 ATS (22.7%), failing to cover by over 6.5 points per game on average. No team has cost bettors more on the road over that stretch, including the Titans.
In addition to my three spread picks above, here are some additional plays that I like:
Anytime TD Lottery
Mitchell Tinsley/Devaughn Vele
Favorite Teaser
Cardinals-Bears
ML Dog Shot
Bengals
