NFL Week 12 Survivor Pool Analysis, Percentages & Pick: Dolphins Offering Massive Expected Value

NFL Week 12 Survivor Pool Analysis, Percentages & Pick: Dolphins Offering Massive Expected Value article feature image
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Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Dolphins CB Xavien Howard.

Last week, we finally had a big upset that eliminated a big chunk of survivor pool entries. Roughly 30% of entries took the Vikings, who were upset by CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys.

Hopefully you were able to avoid that landmine and continue on to Week 12. I’ll assume that is the case since you are still reading this article.

Even this late in the season, major changes can happen. Joe Burrow gets hurt for the Bengals and now Cincinnati looks to be a good team to go against the remainder of the season.

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As of writing, the only team with COVID-19 concerns are the Ravens. Their Thanksgiving night matchup with the Steelers was moved to Sunday afternoon.

With the appetizer course out of the way, let’s get to the main dish and preview the win percentages for the remainder of the NFL season.

At this point, you should be mapping out the rest of your season. You may end up changing your mind, but it is good practice to know which weeks look better than others so you can maneuver through them properly.

You still want to maximize your expected value each week, but you may need to sacrifice in order to make it through unscathed.

Speaking of expected value, here are the top plays for this week:

Team Pick % Model EV
Dolphins 10.2% 89.4% 1.52
Saints 6.7% 74.9% 1.24
Rams 3.4% 69.2% 1.19
Browns 32.9% 68.8% 0.95
Washington 0% 64.3% 1.15
Giants 16.5% 63.4% 0.95

My model loves the Dolphins this week (and hates the Jets). The Dolphins going into Denver and losing last week may make some people move off of them this week.

If you have been reading for a few weeks, you may remember that I said not to take the Dolphins against the Jets in their first meeting, and you see the reward of that decision here. With only 10% of people on the Fins, they have an expected value of 1.52, the highest I can recall all year.

The popular pick this week is Cleveland, who goes on the road to face the Jaguars. Roughly a third of entries are on the Browns, which makes them a prime candidate to fade.

Not picking the Browns is a good way to gain an edge on your fellow pickers if they lose, but also if you look ahead, they face the Jets in Week 16 with a much higher projected win percentage.

Even if the Browns win, those that took them won’t have that ~80% game in their back pocket like you have if you take someone else.

The Saints and Rams are good pivot selections, although I prefer the Saints more given the upcoming schedules of both teams. The Jets make an appearance once again, this time against the Rams in Week 15.

If your options are limited, I think Washington is a good play. I realize that the market has them as underdogs to the Cowboys, but my model disagrees. Because of that, literally nobody will be on them and there is no reason to save them for later on.

My best survivor picks for Week 12:

1. Dolphins
2. Saints
3. Washington
4. Rams
5. Browns

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