I am rolling with three games that I see value in betting this Sunday. You can find those NFL predictions and analysis for each game below.
For NFL Week 2, I'm on my favorite sides for Eagles vs. Titans, Jaguars vs. Broncos, and Raiders vs. Chargers.
Let's get into my NFL picks and predictions for Week 2 on Sunday, September 20.
NFL Week 2 Picks & Predictions
Here are my three favorite buy low / sell high bets for the Week 2 slate. I'll get into more in-depth matchup angles as the season progresses, but let's just keep it simple for this Sunday.
Eagles vs Titans
I haven't locked this in yet, as there's a chance we could see a 7.5 at some point with the entire planet betting the Eagles, I'm assuming.
So, I'll continue to monitor the market before locking in at +7 or better.
For starters, I make this closer to Eagles -6 in a game where points should come at a premium, as evidenced by a total of just 39 in sweltering Nashville conditions, which could suppress scoring even more. That obviously makes the home 'dog a bit more appetizing.
The Titans were an absolute disaster in Robert Saleh's debut. Nothing worked on offense and the secondary lacks talent across the board. Yet, it's still just one game under a new staff with a very new roster.
Remember, the Patriots lost at home to the Raiders last year to open the season.
I'm expecting a better effort from Tennessee this week and am assuming they're going to tweak some things on offense. Plus, Robert Saleh has had Jalen Hurts' number in two previous meetings, winning outright as a near touchdown 'dog in both.
Plus, it's not like Philadelphia exceeded expectations last week after barely escaping with a victory in their home opener against a bad Commanders team.
The Eagles' defense has an extremely high floor and will make things difficult on Cam Ward, but I expect the offense to remain a work in progress under new OC Sean Mannion.
In Week 1, the Eagles only had 10 first downs, six of which came on third down, including a third-and-18 scramble and a third-and-goal touchdown pass from the 17.
The pass protection was poor last week and they were not generating a push up front in the running game, ranking 28th in yards before contact — and now, they are dealing with a shakeup along the interior offensive line, which isn't ideal on the road against the strength of the Tennessee defense with Jefferey Simmons and company.
Give me a touchdown-plus with the desperate home 'dog in a game with a sub-4o total.
Some trends to consider:
- Home 'dogs in Week 2 after losing in Week 1 by double digits at home are rare, but they have gone 7-2 ATS since 2003 with some of the quarterbacks who covered including Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, Cooper Rush, Blake Bortles and Derek Anderson.
- In Week 2, when two 0-1 ATS teams face each other, the 'dog is 53-30-3 ATS (64%) since 2003.
Raiders vs Chargers
There was a lot of injury uncertainty all week with this game. Well, it looks like things broke LA's way with Brock Bowers expected to sit out and Ladd McConkey trending toward giving it a go.
That's all I needed to get in here on the Chargers at under a touchdown following their embarrassing home loss to the Cardinals in Week 1.
The interior offensive line remains a major sore spot, but this Raiders interior defensive line isn't anything to write home about. Plus, the Chargers do have an elite tackle duo to contain Maxx Crosby.
While the Chargers defense looked slow in the opener (and may end up really missing Jesse Minter), this isn't an explosive Raiders offense that can take full advantage of some of those deficiencies, especially without Bowers.
Yes, the Raiders looked good last week, but they beat the Dolphins, who might go down as one of the worst teams in NFL history!
This is a total over-reaction to Week 1. Give me the home favorite on sale.
Jaguars vs Broncos
This is my favorite bet of the day. The Broncos looked absolutely miserable in Kansas City, but most of their defensive issues just came down to missed tackles.
I mean, Patrick Mahomes had 18 Air Yards. EIGHTEEN!
The Chiefs finished with 248 missed tackle yards. That's the most ever tracked. Denver's near 30% missed tackle rate was also one of the worst of all-time.
Those things are easily fixable for a usually solid tackling bunch. Keep in mind the Denver defense ranked second in yards before contact per rush last week.
The Broncos offense was also a disaster under first-time play caller Davis Webb. Running into Spags with prep certainly didn't help matters, but I thought he called a really poor game.
I expect Sean Payton to get much more heavily involved this week, which should lead to better results.
Meanwhile, I'm getting to a sell a Jaguars team that destroyed a barely functioning NFL team in the Browns, who are somehow still trotting Deshaun Watson out at quarterback.
I love Liam Coen and this Jaguars offense will be very good this year, but it's still a shaky offensive line that could have problems in this particular matchup.
More importantly, the Jaguars' defense is due to take a major step back after getting extremely fortunate last season with takeaways and opposing quarterback competition, which continued last week vs. Cleveland.
Coming into today, the Jaguars have won and covered nine straight, but just take a look who they have beat over that stretch:
- Browns with Watson
- Chargers with a decimated OL
- Arizona in OT
- Tennessee
- Tennessee again with Brandon Allen
- Indianapolis with Riley Leonard
- Jets with Brady Cook
- Colts with Rivers
The one good win came against these Broncos in Denver, but I believe the Broncos get their revenge from last season at home where the altitude advantage is juiced up over the first few weeks of the season.
For what it's worth, Sean Payton is the second-most profitable coach in NFL history following a loss at 61-37-1 (62.2%), covering by 4 points per game — and he's even better as a favorite in that spot: 37-21 ATS (65%).
