NFL Week 3 Predictions: 7 Data-Driven Picks for Lions vs Vikings, Jaguars vs Chargers, More
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images. Pictured: Amon-Ra St. Brown
NFL Week 3 Predictions
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Billy Ward: I try to keep my picks in this space more mathematically derived – and this isn’t really that – but it’s too good to pass up.
For what it’s worth – and this isn’t really how we should handicap – the Lions played the Eagles incredibly close, losing by three points in Week 1, whereas the Vikings lost by 17 on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
That short week for Minnesota benefits the Lions as well, since they had a full week to prepare. Additionally, Detroit’s offensive line has been incredibly banged up, missing all three interior starters last week. They should get center Frank Ragnow (foot) back in Week 3, as well as starting cornerback Amani Oruwariye (back), who missed Week 2.
On the Vikings side, they’ll be missing starting strong safety Harrison Smith (concussion) and nickel corner Andrew Booth (quad). That could be an issue against an explosive Lions offense – at least enough for the Lions to keep it close.
I want the full six points if betting Detroit though, thanks to their tendency to play teams close – before ultimately losing – in the Dan Campbell era. I’d bet it down to the standard -110 if the slightly better lines disappear.
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Nick Giffen: The Lions' struggles against the tight end position in 2021 (second most receiving yards allowed) have carried into 2022.
Dallas Goedert put up 60 yards in Week 1, while Logan Thomas added 34 yards and a score in Week 2. Now, it’s Irv Smith’s turn to face Detroit.
Smith has 10 targets in the first two games, including two targets inside the 10-yard line.
In previous work, I’ve shown that implied team total correlates with scoring at the TE position more so than at other positions. Well, the Vikings boast the highest implied team total of Week 3 at 29.5 points.
Our projections show that +275 is fair for this bet, which comes out to a 14.7% edge.
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Sean Koerner: Quez Watkins is a very volatile player, as seen by his 0/0/0 and 2/69/1 receiving lines in the first two games. The addition of A.J. Brown has made it difficult for Watkins to command many targets — his 3.9% targets per route run rate is one of the lowest in the league.
He’s seen an aDot of 33.0 on two targets this year, and considering he profiles as a receiver who will get the occasional deep target, his catch rate of 100% is surely due for significant regression.
I’m showing value on both Watkins going under 1.5 receptions and 22.5 receiving yards. But since he is a volatile deep threat, it’s probably smart to avoid his yardage prop and go with his receptions.
I’m projecting this being closer to a 50/50 coin flip, so I love the value we are getting with the +140 price tag. I would bet this down to +125.
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Billy Ward: I’m a believer in the new-look Dolphins offense.
They’ve scored 62 points through the first two weeks of the season, with Tua Tagovailoa averaging over 40 pass attempts per game. While they haven’t played a defense as talented as Buffalo’s, the Bills are already somewhat banged up on defense.
What I’m not a believer in is the Dolphins defense, which got run over by Lamar Jackson last week.
I prefer the first half over for a couple reasons. Mainly, we saw Buffalo pull its offensive starters in the fourth quarter last week. The Bills could get to this total themselves in the first half, but could easily slow things down in the second if they do.
These teams also combine to play somewhat faster in the first half than the second, so I’d expect scoring to be slightly front-loaded here. With a 53 game total, we’re getting slightly less than half of that on the first-half line.
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Nick Giffen: With the increasing likelihood of Justin Herbert (rib cartilage fracture) sitting out Week 3 against the Jaguars, backup Chase Daniel is set to make his first start since the 2019 season. To say Daniel limits the Chargers’ offense would be an understatement.
Bad news for L.A., but good news for this Hopkins prop.
And even when the Chargers score a touchdown, they go for two at a 19 percent clip – vs. 10.7 percent league average – since Brandon Staley took over as head coach in 2021.
I have the under hitting 66.5 percent of the time and I’d bet to -175.
Note: Even if Herbert plays, I’d still bet this as he won’t be close to 100%.
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Sean Koerner: There are multiple things going against Cam Akers in this market:
1) While he reclaimed his early down role in Week 2, Darrell Henderson was still in on every third down or obvious passing situation.
2) Matthew Stafford tends to not target his RBs, especially on early downs (when Akers is in the game). He has only targeted a RB 9.5% of the time on early downs, compared to the league average of 16%.
3) The Cardinals play man at the fifth highest rate. Akers tends to see even less usage in the passing game against man coverage (as do most RBs).
The market seems to be overreacting to his 2/18/0 outburst last week, but that statline required multiple things to go in Akers’ favor just to get two receptions.
I’m betting against that happening again and give him about a 63% chance to stay under 1.5 receptions. I would bet this down to -130.
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Billy Ward: I’ve been riding this prop fairly heavily in this space. Of the five games that have fit my criteria, two have won, producing a nice profit considering the +175 line.
Week 3 gives us a game that fits the bill more strongly than anything we’ve seen so far.
Packers–Bucs features a narrow one-point spread, and a low point total of 42. The chance of either team scoring three straight times increases with both the spread and the total.
Green Bay, in particular, also plays at a very slow pace, which helps our chances by limiting the total number of possessions. Tampa Bay is more middle of the road in pace, but I’d expect them to be slower this week with its three top wide receivers all potentially out.
Atlanta-Seattle is also a good candidate for this prop, with identical spread and total numbers.
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