The NFL season rolls into Week 4 action, starting with the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals set to square off in a pivotal NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 4 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate all the way through the Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 4 Previews & Predictions
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| NFL Dublin Game |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 4 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football Doubleheader |
Thursday Night Football
Seahawks vs Cardinals
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Sorry to who it offends, but through three weeks Sam Darnold has been the best quarterback in football.
In fact, I'm not really that sorry — I've always believed.
The fact remains, however, that Seattle's offense has gone from good to great this season with its new signal-caller. It sits eighth in EPA per dropback and fourth in DVOA through the air, and while the run game hasn't been exactly what we expected, it shouldn't matter with Arizona grading 12th-worst against the run, according to Pro Football Focus.
Arizona's secondary has done a great job overall this season, but it's important to remember that two of those showings came against Bryce Young and Spencer Rattler. It looked much worse against Mac Jones, who was pretty efficient in throwing for 284 yards. Arizona's pass rush also continues to give this team nothing — especially when you factor in the offensive lines they've been up against.
The Cardinals' biggest strength has been running the ball, but against one of the best defensive lines in football right now, I'm not confident they'll be making much progress.
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NFL Dublin Game
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 41 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 41 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Remember when I told you not to worry about Carson Wentz last week? Me too.
The Vikings had a field day at the Bengals' expense, putting forth what was easily their best offensive performance of the season.
You know why I said that? The Bengals can't get to the quarterback — but the Steelers sure can.
Even with a flat opening week against the Jets, the Steelers still grade out as the fourth-best pass-rushing unit in football, according to PFF, and will continue to force the issue as the team that's blitzed at the second-highest rate.
Minnesota has allowed pressures at the second-highest clip in the league, and with that I am going from not worried to very worried about Wentz. I still believe in the skill position players, but he's going to need time to throw.
That leaves us in a prickly spot because the Vikings have looked really good on the defensive side of the ball and the Steelers are a mystery to me.
I always hate betting the games in Europe, but if I picked a side it'd be Pittsburgh.
Passes
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Remember when we thought C.J. Stroud was going to take over the league? Honestly it was so long ago, I completely forget.
Stroud's now averaging 6.7 yards per attempt — which currently represents a second straight season of decline, and he's already thrown three interceptions to just two touchdowns through three games.
Remember, this is a guy who was picked just five times in his rookie season and threw for 43 touchdowns between 2023 and 2024.
Perhaps it's too early to pass judgment, and the Texans' offensive line certainly isn't helping his cause with the sixth-worst pass block win rate to this point. The defense continues to look like a mess, too, with the pass rush dominating and this vaunted secondary working through a brutal start to the year.
I find it incredibly hard to lay the points here with how disappointing the Texans have been in every way, and even if Cam Ward doesn't suit up it's still too many.
No thanks on this one.
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Saints vs Bills
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
I want to make it an entire season without betting on a single Saints game.
It's just hard to figure out the identity of this offense, because while they'd love to run and avoid giving the ball to Spencer Rattler, the defense simply hasn't afforded them that chance. They've had to consistently come back in games, and with Rattler's high degree of inefficiency, there's no chance for Alvin Kamara to get going.
Buffalo's definitely vulnerable defensively, especially against the run until Ed Oliver is back, and New Orleans has at least been able to take away the deep ball to a large degree through three weeks.
Perhaps that leads us to a low scoring game? There's just not a lot to be accomplished by taking any of these numbers.
Verdict: Pass
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Colts vs Rams
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
The Rams defense has looked awesome thus far, but let's remember they've played the Texans, Titans and Eagles — who obviously have talent but have lacked firepower to open up the season.
The Colts offense has been a revelation, meanwhile, but they've had an easy schedule in their own right with Denver's secondary ranking near the bottom of the league to this point.
So, what do we do?
We find another game to bet on.
The Rams' line has looked abysmal when it comes to stopping the pass rush, but Indy's weak line should offer some reprieve. The Colts' passing offense has been undeniable, but so has this Rams defense.
This game is going to tell us a lot about both sides, but I'm just not confident in the sample we've got to work with.
Verdict: Pass
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Ravens vs Chiefs
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
It's hard to tell if it's just two really good offenses in three weeks or if this Ravens defense actually isn't as good as the lofty expectations set for them to start the year. I definitely don't think they can stop the run, however, and that was the cornerstone of this defense for years.
Kansas City's offense isn't looking all that great in its own right, however, and even with some solid running from Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, the run blocking has graded out very poorly.
That's got my brain in a pretzel here — and while I certainly don't think this Chiefs offense is bad, we do know the Ravens' offense has looked legit against some good defenses.
It's hard to get a read on this one. I want to take the under, but it's a bit terrifying with the scorelines the Ravens have been producing.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Browns vs Lions
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Well, the Lions are back — and they may have never been missing in the first place.
This offense just ran wild on an elite run defense with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs scoring four times, and the line protected Jared Goff brilliantly in the face of heavy pressure.
Now comes the easy part, moving past the Browns — at least it should be.
The Browns stifled Green Bay's rushing attack and pressured Jordan Love 22 times, but I think the Lions have the Packers beat both on the line and in the backfield.
Montogmery and Gibbs are currently both inside PFF's top 12 rushers, and Josh Jacobs is averaging just a hair over three yards per carry with little support behind him on the depth chart.
We have to respect this Lions line after a brilliant performance against the Ravens, and we can't read too far into one win for Cleveland, which once again featured absolutely nothing on offense out of this weak, weak group.
Verdict: Lean Lions -9.5
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Chargers vs Giants
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +240 |
The Chargers are really good, but can they make our lives a little bit easier?
Justin Herbert threw for 300 yards against Denver, but he was sacked five times and came home with a measly 6.4 yards per attempt. The Chargers stopped Bo Nix in his tracks, but that's been a common theme this year. The run defense and the tackling continue to be brutal, and that's giving me a lot of pause.
We know L.A. loves to air it out, but thus far it's completed just four passes of 20 or more yards despite ranking near the top of the league with 14 attempts.
The Giants have allowed a sub-30% completion percentage on these throws, and they've also run the ball quite admirably — something the Chargers have had a tough time stopping.
It's going to be Jaxson Dart's first career start, and it's also going to be another tall task for a shaky Giants defense to slow down a complete Chargers team that can also run the ball quite well.
With that said, we saw Herbert struggle against Denver's pass rush, and New York's isn't too bad. If we had more of an assurance at quarterback I'd be all over the home underdogs.
Verdict: Lean Giants +6.5
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Jaguars vs 49ers
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | -170 |
I refuse to bet on Mac Jones until he faces a real defense — I will hold firm in my stance here. He's not even completely healthy either — with Brock Purdy returning to practice in a limited capacity, it's not a guarantee Jones plays.
Whatever the case, the 49ers are getting decently lucky — but that all seems like it could be changing.
Nick Bosa suffered a devastating injury in Week 3, as did Ricky Pearsall, who didn't practice on Wednesday and may miss this game. I mean, how many receivers have to go down until we stop acting like this is the same 49ers offense that inflicted fear into opposing defenses?
The Jaguars may be 2-1, but Trevor Lawrence still stinks. Th defense has been the Jags' calling card, and why wouldn't they keep going here with so many question marks surrounding the Niners?
I really don't love the under here with the numbers San Francisco has put up, but it is going to regress in time as this team plays some better defenses.
Verdict: Lean Under 47
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NFL Week 4 Picks
Bears vs Raiders
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Don't you dare give me the Raiders as a pick 'em at home against a bad Bears defense. Don't tempt me to take my new favorite team, because I'll take them.
I'll back the Raiders until they give me a reason not to, and I will especially back them against the worst pass defense in football by DVOA — and the 22nd-ranked rushing defense.
I know there's not much to love with the start for Ashton Jeanty, but Geno Smith sure does look comfortable back there airing it out.
Chicago has allowed opponents to go 5-for-8 on deep balls this season, coming in with the fourth-worst completion percentage in the league, and that should only get worse with the league's top gunslinger on the schedule.
The Raiders defense certainly hasn't looked dominant in its own right, but hey, the Raiders are at least sitting 17th in DVOA against the run, which is probably how Chicago plans on winning this game. Well, they should plan to lose.
Verdict: Bet Raiders Moneyline (-110)
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Eagles vs Buccaneers
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Just when it finally looked like the Eagles would get the loss that's been coming to them, Jalen Hurts saved the day. Well, Hurts and his special teams unit, which blocked two crucial Rams kicks to deliver the win for Philly.
Hurts went 21-of-32 for 226 yards and three touchdowns, and that was without the services of Lane Johnson, who was knocked out of the game early. It's unclear if Johnson will play, but the offensive line was never the problem — it was Hurts and his skill position players who ultimately came out of the gates flat.
I'm still concerned about the ground game after Saquon Barkley was held to 46 yards on 18 carries, and nothing changes here with Tampa Bay ranking second in DVOA against the run.
This is going to be an uphill battle for the defending champs, especially with the defense continuing to look unpredictable. The secondary hasn't done a good enough job to convince me Baker Mayfield won't have another big game, and the front seven just allowed L.A. to run all over it.
I'm going to continue fading Philly until we start getting some more respectable lines.
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers +3.5
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Panthers vs Patriots
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -250 |
The strangest game of the day on Sunday had to be the Panthers' trouncing of a strong Falcons team — but to make it stranger, it featured just 224 yards of total offense out of Carolina.
Chuba Hubbard looked strong, and the Panthers' offensive line protected Bryce Young, but I don't think there's some magical transformation going on here. This is still a bad line that was granted an excellent matchup against a Falcons pass rush that is very weak, and now they'll have to combat a Patriots defensive front that ranks top 10 in both pass rush and run stop win rates.
New England hasn't recorded a ton of pressures, but that should change in time — and a matchup with an awful offensive line down two players already is a good start.
Mix in the fact that Drake Maye is coming off a pretty solid game against one of the best pass rushes around, too, and I think you've got enough here to take New England.
Carolina's lone strength on defense is getting to the quarterback, and on offense I'm not sure it has one — at least in this matchup.
Verdict: Bet Patriots -5.5 (-110)
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Commanders vs Falcons
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Boy, I feel dumb.
Just when I decide to talk up the Falcons, they go ahead and lose 30-0 to the Panthers.
Time to pack it in! Just kidding, though I think I may already be incorrect in my assertion that this defense is good enough to support what should be a pretty high-octane offense.
Perhaps the Falcons played down to the competition, but whatever the case, the task at hand will be quite simple: Stop Washington from running the ball.
The thing is, Atlanta didn't exactly lose the game on defense last week in allowing just 224 yards of total offense — it was untimely turnovers that cost them.
The Falcons rank 18th in run stop win rate on the line of scrimmage, but check in at a more respectable 14th in DVOA. It's a pedestrian start, but we'll take it against the Commanders — especially if Jayden Daniels doesn't play.
Daniels was a limited participant in practice so it looks like there's a decent chance he does suit up, but the Commanders have lacked a passing attack and they've also leaned heavily on their defensive line with the secondary struggling through three weeks.
The Falcons offense should clearly be the best unit on the field with the way they can beat you through the air. They should bounce back from an embarrassing loss to continue marching up the standings.
Verdict: Bet Falcons +1.5
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Sunday Night Football
Packers vs Cowboys
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
The Packers offense was just taken to the woodshed by the Browns' front seven, and while it's unlikely that Dallas' pass rush is able to replicate Cleveland's showing, it's certainly plausible the Cowboys can once again stop the run.
Green Bay's lacked gumption on the ground, and Dallas has ranked sixth in run stopping win rate thus far, which has helped it to an encouraging start. The Cowboys offense also hasn't looked all that bad, though it's been largely due to this surprise start out of the backfield.
The Packers have been very vulnerable to the run, sitting 20th in DVOA, and now they're in danger of missing even more key players with defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt questionable for this one.
We already saw what an injury to Zach Tom on the offensive line did to this team, now we're about to see what happens when their already rocky run defense loses a key component.
Dallas can move the ball, and it should continue to keep Josh Jacobs and his 3.1 yards per carry in jail.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +7.5
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Monday Night Football Doubleheader
Jets vs Dolphins
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 45 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 45 -110o / -110u | -150 |
The Dolphins offense looked really, really good last week even if they fell to the Bills on primetime, and now with an extended week to prepare for this awful Jets defense, I'm higher on Miami now more than ever.
I know, the numbers don't jump off the page, but Miami did amass 5.2 yards per carry while leaning on Tua Tagovailoa for some short completions. He also crucially was not sacked once, and we know the Jets' pass rush has been bad. It's full steam ahead on the offense, yes, but this defense? I'm not seeing much I like.
The Jets are still moving the ball well on the ground — something the Bills did brilliantly last week — and behind Tyrod Taylor last week the offense certainly didn't sputter — even against an excellent Buccaneers defense.
This has all the makings of a shootout, and I can't believe the oddsmakers don't agree.
Verdict: Bet Over 45
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Bengals vs Broncos
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -380 |
The Broncos secondary was supposed to be one of the best in football, but so far they've been one of the worst, according to PFF's coverage grades. It doesn't help that one of their games came against Cam Ward and the Titans, too, so why would Jake Browning stand any worse of a chance?
Denver just can't stop surrendering points, which has made life pretty tough on an offense that hasn't gotten much of anything out of Bo Nix.
The Bengals have leaned heavily upon their pass rush, which should be negated by the Broncos' strong line, but are we sure Nix can do anything with time to throw, even against a so-so secondary?
I'm not convinced, and I also don't really know if you can justify an automatic play on the Broncos' secondary against a bad quarterback with the way they've started.
No thanks.
