The NFL offseason is always full of noise, but is it much ado about nothing?
Right now, a Polymarket market is tracking which players are most likely to change teams, and some names are generating plenty of attention. Here's where the market stands.
Which NFL Players Will be Traded?
Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants
Kayvon Thibodeaux makes logical sense in this market.
The financial and roster math in New York are getting tight. The Giants drafted absolute stud Abdul Carter third overall in 2025, and alongside Brian Burns, they have a logjam of premium talent competing for playing time. While New York also added Arvell Reese at No. 5 overall this past April, Reese projects more as an off-ball linebacker, leaving Thibodeaux fighting for his long-term security on the edge.
Thibodeaux is in the fifth-year option season of his rookie contract, earning $14.75 million in 2026. The Giants previously set their asking price at a second-round pick, though that stance may soften as the season unfolds.
Thibodeaux is currently playing on his $14.75 million fifth-year option. His production has cooled down since a dominant 11.5-sack campaign in 2023, making opposing front offices hesitant to inherit that entire cap hit right now.
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
This one is essentially a closed case. Back in April, Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan called Achane "not available" for trade and named him one of the team's building blocks.
By late May, Achane had signed a four-year, $64 million extension, making him one of the highest-paid running backs in the league at $16 million per season.
Achane later explained the situation himself on a podcast, saying the new coaching staff made their position clear from day one: "They kind of made it clear that… we're not trading him, he's one of the players that we're going to build the offense around."
This story is already resolved.
George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
George Pickens wants long-term financial security, but the Dallas Cowboys are comfortable playing the waiting game.
The star wideout signed his one-year, $27.3 million franchise tag in late April. While that locks him into a fully guaranteed bag for the 2026 season, his future in Big D past this year remains completely up in the air.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently floated the idea of a potential split, especially since Pickens sat out the opening week of voluntary OTAs.
However, team leadership is actively downplaying the drama. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer confirmed that communication remains strong, and Pickens has spent his offseason training directly with Dak Prescott.
With owner Jerry Jones publicly stating that the franchise views Pickens as part of their long-term blueprint, a sudden trade feels highly improbable. The smart money says Pickens plays out his tagged season alongside CeeDee Lamb before both sides revisit the negotiating table in 2027.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
At 31 years old this July, Alvin Kamara is looking at an incredibly crowded New Orleans Saints backfield.
The writing is on the wall in New Orleans. The Saints made a massive splash by signing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency, and they still have younger depth options like Kendre Miller, Audric Estime and Ty Chandler waiting in the wings. Kamara is coming off a difficult 2025 season where he posted career lows in touches (164) and scrimmage yards (657).
To make matters more complicated, his contract has been restructured so many times that sorting through the dead-money burden requires an advanced degree in accounting. ESPN’s Dan Graziano pointed out that while the Saints don’t have a compelling football reason to keep him, finding a trade partner willing to offer significant draft capital will be tough.
Some speculative landing spots are emerging, including the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers.
Of these situations, Thibodeaux and Kamara seem to be open-ended questions worth targeting right now, if you fade the noise on Achane and Pickens.
