NFL Week 5 Main Slate Player Props: Buy Deshaun Watson (Sunday, Oct. 11)

Credit:

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Amari Cooper.

  • Week 5 of the NFL season offers up a number of quality prop bets heading into the main slate.
  • Matt LaMarca broke down five props during the 1 p.m. ET slate.
  • Check out LaMarca's full breakdown for each pick below.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.

Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 4 main slate:

Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald

The Pick: Under 35.5 receiving yards (-112)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Fitzgerald is an absolute legend and one of the best to ever do it at wide receiver, but he’s clearly on the downside of his career. He’s probably been on the downside for a while now, and the Cardinals simply don’t need to rely on him in 2020. They brought in DeAndre Hopkins during the offseason, who has been an absolute target hog to start 2020, and they also have Christian Kirk to soak up targets.

Fitzgerald is still playing on the vast majority of offensive snaps, but he’s garnered just three targets in each of his past two games. He managed just three total catches over those contests and turned those catches into just four yards. Overall, he’s averaging just 4.9 yards per target in 2020, so there’s no guarantee he can hit the over on his yardage prop even if he snags a couple catches vs. the Jets.

Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson

The Pick: Over 1.5 passing TDs (-250)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Some people might be turned off by the heavy juice on this prop, but heavy juice doesn’t automatically make a bet a bad value. The current -250 odds translate to an implied probability of 71.43%, and it feels like Watson should throw two touchdowns vs. the Jaguars at a higher clip than that. Unsurprisingly, that gives this prop a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10 using the Player Prop tool.

The Jaguars have been slightly better than expected to start the season, but they have still struggled mightily at defending the pass. They currently rank dead-last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, so Watson should be able to have his way with them.

The Texans should also benefit from the departure of Bill O’Brien, who clearly lost respect in their locker room. He reportedly got into an altercation with J.J. Watt, which eventually turned into a full-scale rebellion against O’Brien. Removing him from the equation should be a breath of fresh air for the Texans’ players, and that could translate into better performances on the field.

Baltimore Ravens WR Miles Boykin

The Pick: Under 31.5 receiving yards (-112)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

Boykin is the Ravens’ No. 3 receiving option at best, which doesn’t give him a ton of upside most weeks. Baltimore has run the ball at a 48% clip in one-score games this season, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league.

That isn’t great to begin with, and the potential game script in Week 5 should also work against Boykin. The Ravens are currently favored by 12.5 points vs. the Bengals, so they could very easily jump out to a large lead in this contest. Most teams tend to run the ball at a higher clip when they have a lead, and Baltimore is no exception: The Ravens own a run rate of 59% when leading by at least 10 points.

That simply doesn’t leave a lot of outs for Boykin to hit the over. You basically need a game where the Ravens have to pass more than usual and funnel some of those additional targets to Boykin. That seems unlikely, so I will gladly take the under in this spot.

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-200)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

This is another prop with some significant juice on the over, but this line just feels flat-out wrong. Gaskin has established himself as the Dolphins’ clear top running back through the first four weeks. He’s played at least 63% of the offensive snaps to start the year, and he’s logged 25 more touches than Matt Breida and Jordan Howard combined.

A lot of Gaskin’s work comes in the passing game. He’s tallied at least four targets in each game this season, and he has also finished with at least three catches in each game. Overall, he ranks eighth in targets among all running backs through the first four weeks of the season.

Gaskin has the potential to be even more involved in the passing game this week vs. the 49ers. The Dolphins are 8-point underdogs in San Francisco, which means they might have to pass a bit more than usual.

Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper

The Pick: Under 77.5 receiving yards (-115)

FantasyLabs Grade: 7 out of 10

Fading the Cowboys’ passing offense is definitely playing with fire at the moment. Dak Prescott has racked up at least 450 passing yards in each of his past three games, and that production has funneled down to his wide receivers. Overall, Cooper has racked up at least 81 receiving yards in each of his first four games.

That said, consider me skeptical that Prescott is going to throw for 450 yards every game. Maybe his first sub-450-yard game comes this week against the Giants in a game where the Cowboys are favored by nearly 10 points. If Dallas can actually grab a lead for once, it could lean on Ezekiel Elliott a bit more than it has to start the year.

Cooper also has the toughest matchup among the Cowboys wide receivers by a pretty significant margin. He is expected to be shadowed by James Bradberry, who has graded out as the NFL’s second-best cover corner to start the season according to Pro Football Focus. The Cowboys have plenty of weapons in the pass game, so Prescott may look at guys like Michael Gallup or CeeDee Lamb a bit more than Cooper.

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