Rovell’s Week 7 NFL Betting Blog: Patriots’ MNF Rout Helps Three Bettors Turn $5 into $40K

Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phillip Dorsett II and Trumaine Johnson

Oct 22, 2019, 11:30 PM EDT
  • Darren Rovell runs through the biggest storylines in the world of NFL betting for Week 7, detailing the big-money wagers that have oddsmakers nervous and more tidbits from Vegas and New Jersey.

Monday, Oct. 21

11:25 p.m. ET: The Patriots defeated the Jets in a blowout on Monday Night Football. The win was a boon for four different bettors, three of whom turned $5 into $39,413 of winnings via a William Hill parlay card. CG Technology also paid out a $30,000 winning wager to one brave soul who put $141,000 on the Pats moneyline.

As high-payout bets go, these were sweat-free: The Patriots scored 17 first-quarter points and cruised to a 33-0 victory.

7:47 p.m. ET: CG Technology just took a massive bet on the Patriots moneyline tonight. One bettor wagered $141,000 to win $30,000 that New England will beat the Jets outright on the road (-470 moneyline).

CG would not confirm whether the wager came from the same person who bet (and lost) $540K on the Bears moneyline yesterday.

6:26 p.m. ET: William Hill offers an NFL parlay card each week in Nevada. A card costs $5, and to win the overall pool, you need to go 15-for-15. Well, with a New England Patriots win over the New York Jets tonight, three bettors will win the pot, which grows each week there isn’t a winner.

The pot for this week is $118,240 and all three cards remaining have the Pats, meaning each entrant would win $39,413. If the Jets win, the progressive jackpot will carry over to Week 8, with a prize pool of $156,625.

The record progressive jackpot for a William Hill parlay card in Nevada is $305,000 back in March.

6 p.m. ET: Tonight is not a huge decision for sportsbooks, but will be important as this game has “the usual liability rollover for a Monday Night Game,” said William Hill bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “We definitely could use the Jets,” he said, due to moneyline parlays and teasers.

Meanwhile, CG Technology has taken two limit bets of $10,000 each on the under of 43.5 and 43 points, according to CG’s Tony DiTomasso.

The Action Network data shows that 63% of the tickets and 51% of the money is coming in on the Patriots (-10) at the time of writing.

The Patriots are the NFL’s best against-the-spread team since the start of the 2018 season (16-9, 64%), while the Jets are the second worst (7-13-1, 35%). Only the Atlanta Falcons (6-17, 26%) are worse.

Sunday, Oct. 20

7:10 p.m. ET: In one of the weirder endings you’ll see, Chargers RB Melvin Gordon was ruled to have fumbled a half-yard away from scoring the game-winning TD for Los Angeles against Tennessee. One bettor needed the Chargers to win to complete a 10-leg parlay that would’ve paid out $58,217 on a $150 bet. The Titans ended up winning, 23-20.

The result was made all the more excruciating by the fact that L.A. had two touchdowns overturned prior to Gordon’s fumble.

Here’s the full parlay, which was placed at PointsBet:

  • Win: Rams moneyline (-180)
  • Win: Cardinals moneyline (+160)
  • Win: Colts moneyline (-125)
  • Win: Dolphins spread (+17)
  • Win: Vikings moneyline (-145)
  • Win: Packers moneyline (-255)
  • Win: Jaguars moneyline (-220)
  • Win: 49ers moneyline (-475)
  • Win: Saints moneyline (+180)
  • Loss: Chargers moneyline (+130)

4:10 p.m. ET: A bettor who wagered $300,000 on the Jaguars to cover as 2-point favorites vs. the Bengals netted $192,000 at DraftKings. Jacksonville had a monster fourth quarter to secure a victory. 

The biggest loser of the morning was a bettor who reportedly wagered $130,000 to win $20,000 on the Bills’ first-half moneyline at CG Technology, according to ESPN’s David Purdum. The Dolphins led at the half but ended up losing the game, 31-21.

11:40 a.m. ET: DraftKings took a monsterous $300,000 bet on the Jaguars (-2) at Cincinnati. The normal spread is 4.5, but this bettor bought it down (at -156 odds). If Gardner Minshew & Co. cover, the wager would net $192,000.

11:35 a.m. ET: Similar to what the folks at Westgate have seen, the New Jersey operator PointsBet has gotten some pretty significant action from pros on the Ravens to cover as road underdogs vs. Seattle. According to PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales, sharp money hit the Ravens opener (+4) and then again at +3.5. The spread now sits at +3. The ticket could at PointsBet is about even, but 80% of the money is on the Ravens.

11:25 a.m. ET: It’s an NFL Sunday, which means everyone’s betting against the Dolphins … right? Well, not this week with Miami 17-point road underdogs vs. Buffalo. PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales said, “We’ve needed the Dolphins pretty much every week. Until now: 95% of the money is on Miami, and it’s one of our higher-volume games in the early window. The market has officially determined the resistance point for this team, and it’s as 17-point dogs today.”

The biggest wager PointsBet has on the game is a $19,950 bet on Dolphins +17 that would net $17,970. Interestingly enough, the same client who placed this wager also bet $25,000 on the Bills to win outright at -1000 odds (would net $2,500). So if Buffalo wins by less than 17, this bettor would profit $20,470.

11 a.m. ET: According to the DraftKings, the most lopsided game on the board is Jaguars (-4.5) at Bengals. Ninety-six percent of the money has come in on the road favorites against the winless Bengals.

Another road favorite, the 49ers, are not too far behind the Jags in terms of popularity. San Francisco is getting 94% of the dollars as 9.5-point favorites in Washington.

The Rams, who are getting 88% of the money as 4-point favorites in Atlanta, are the only other team getting more than 80% of the money at DraftKings, though the Giants are right there. Seventy-nine percent of the dollars are on Big Blue as 4-point favorites over Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.

10:15 a.m. ET: Jeff Sherman from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook told me the three results they’ll be cheering for the most behind the counter are: Lions over Vikings, Falcons over Rams, and Redskins over 49ers.

The sharps and the general public have been aligned on the Vikings as road favorites in Detroit, while the action on the Rams and 49ers is almost all isolated to the public.

Other teams the pros have bet at the Westgate, according to Sherman: Giants (vs. Arizona), Raiders (at Packers), Titans (vs. Chargers), Ravens (at Seahawks) and Bears (vs. Saints).

10 a.m. ET: The biggest bets at the Westgate so far this morning: $22,000 to win $20,000 on the Jags -3.5 at Cincinnati and $20,000 to win $20,000 on Ravens +3 at Seattle.

Thursday, Oct. 17

7 p.m. ET: Here come the big bets. William Hill just took a $110,000 wager to win $100,000 on Broncos +3, director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Action Network. It’s the book’s largest wager on the game.

Thanks to this one wager, it sounds like William Hill might be one of the only books that’s not extremely lopsided on the Chiefs tonight.

6:33 p.m. ET: New Jersey operator PointsBet just took a $17,630 spread bet on the Chiefs. PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales told The Action Network, “Game opened Kansas City -3.5 and didn’t take long to move down to 3, with Denver sharp money driving the move. Seen additional sharp interest at +3. Public doesn’t care that the Chiefs have dropped two straight or are playing at altitude on a short week.”

5:30 p.m. ET: Twenty-four hours after we reported that 94% of the money at DraftKings was on Kansas City -3 at Denver on Thursday night, not much has changed. The Chiefs are still a wildly popular road favorite, getting 89% of the money and 92% of tickets at DK.

Wednesday, Oct. 16

5:25 p.m. ET: Sportsbooks will have what looks to be a massive decision right off the bat in Week 7. The reeling Kansas City Chiefs — who started the season 4-0 but have since lost two straight — head to Denver for Thursday Night Football.

The game has seen a ton of action so far, with Kansas City getting the vast majority of it: According to our betting ticket data, 78% of the wagers so far have landed on the Chiefs. At DraftKings, an incredible 94% of the money was on K.C. as of Wednesday afternoon.

But here’s the kicker: The line has moved pretty significantly away from the Chiefs. It opened at Chiefs -5.5 and has since settled on the key number of -3. What’s clear is that the general public believe K.C. will bounce back playing on a short week on the road, but books are definitely worried about getting more professional action on Denver, hence the line continuing to come down.

We’ll have much more on this game in the next 24 hours, but as it stands now, oddsmakers are positioning themselves to be huge Broncos fans on Thursday night.

5:01 p.m. ET: Outside of the Chiefs-Broncos game, here are the most lopsided NFL bets in terms of money wagered at DraftKings for this weekend (data as of Wednesday afternoon):

  • 96% of money on 49ers (-9.5) over Redskins
  • 85% of money on Jaguars (-3.5) over Bengals
  • 84% of money on Vikings (-1) over Lions.

4:33 p.m. ET: Have sportsbooks finally found a number where the public won’t bet against the Dolphins? Miami is 17-point underdogs at Buffalo this weekend, and, amazingly, 54% of the money is actually on Miami at DraftKings. Last week, the Dolphins became the last NFL team to cover a spread, but they remain winless straight-up.

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