Sunday's slate saw the revenge of the favorites, while Monday Night Football brought back out the underdogs. This season, dogs at night have excelled, but overall, the public has struggled according to Action Network betting data. Lions off a loss, Panthers and Browns as favorites and much more.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 7 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Oct. 14, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
First Fire
Titans Can Callahan
The Titans fired Brian Callahan on Monday, and Tennessee now faces the Patriots this week.
An upset from the Titans against the Patriots as above a 5-point underdog would be the biggest upset over the last decade for a new in-season head coach. The last bigger upset for a new head coach was Romeo Crennel at +11 back in 2011 for the Chiefs.
Here is the real impact of the in-season coaching change. Last decade, before the firing or resignation, those 23 teams had won 27.9% of games SU and 37.3% of games ATS. After the firing, they went 33.3% SU and 49% ATS, a decent improvement overall.
More on fired NFL coaches here:
Public Humiliation
Rough Start
According to Action Network betting data, teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 15-36 ATS through six weeks. Through six games, that is the worst ATS mark for those public bettors in the 23-year history of our database.
Week 6: 2-6 ATS
Week 5: 3-6 ATS
Week 4: 6-7 ATS
Week 3: 2-4 ATS
Week 2: 1-3 ATS
Week 1: 1-0 ATS
A $100 bettor would be down $2,221 taking 60%+ ticket teams ATS this year. The next closest season through six games was 2022 at 15-27 ATS (-$1,322).
Teams with 70%+ tickets this season are 4-16 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when those teams are at home.
Fight for Favorite
Who Wants It?
The Jets opened as favorites at 0-6 SU. It would have been the first 0-6 SU or worse favorite since the 2013 Giants. But not anymore.
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four whole years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. That is the longest losing streak for any team as a favorite since the 1970 merger.
Carolina's last cover as a favorite: 9/23/21 at HOU (w/ Sam Darnold)
More on Carolina closing as a favorite:
Night Dogs
Outright Cash
Underdogs are now 12-9-1 SU and 15-7 ATS in night games this season — the first time through six games underdogs are over .500 SU in primetime since 2002.
Great Expectations
The Other Mahomes Spot
As a favorite of above a TD (-7.5 or more) since 2020, Patrick Mahomes is 36-2 SU and 13-24-1 ATS – his 36-2 SU mark has profited a bettor $495, most of 48 QBs – his 13-24-1 ATS mark has lost a bettor $1,207, worst of 48 QBs.
Mahomes’ two SU losses as above a TD favorite since 2020 have both come against the Raiders. He is 30-0 SU in this spot vs. all other teams. Since 2022, Mahomes is 4-12-1 ATS vs. his own division.
The Other Favorite
Cover Cleveland?
The Browns as betting favorites hasn’t happened a lot lately. Since that 2024 calendar flip, Cleveland is 0-5 SU when closing as the betting favorite with three different QBs (Flacco, Watson, Winston), and now their 4th with Dillon Gabriel, a rookie.
The Browns haven't scored 18 points or more in 11 consecutive games, the 5th-longest streak for any team since 1990. The last longer streak came from the 2000-01 Cardinals, who did it in 13 straight games.
New Highs
Biggest 2025 Total
The Cowboys' defense has created a monster. If the O/U in Commanders/Cowboys closes at 54 or higher, it will be the highest total of the 2025 season so far.
If it closes above 53, it will be the highest over/under in a WAS/DAL series since 1983, when it closed at 53.5. No Dallas/Washington total has closed at 54 or higher since at least 1980.
Emptying The Notebook
Best of the Best
Some of my favorite notes of the week:
• Daniel Jones is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season, best mark in the NFL.
• Jaxson Dart is 2-1 SU in three starts. A $100 bettor would be up $450 taking Dart, best of any QB this season.
• The Bears are 5-0 to their team total over this season, the only undefeated team left in the NFL.
• Teams who are trailing at the half are 53-34 against the 2nd half spread this season. They were 10-4 2H ATS last week, 19-8 2H ATS the last two weeks and 56.3% 2H ATS since 2022.
Every NFL Game For Week 7
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➤ The Steelers have struggled on the road on Thursday Night Football. Under Tomlin, they are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in those games, and they’ve lost four in a row both SU/ATS, with their last win coming back in 2016.
➤Mike Tomlin has faced a Zac Taylor-coached Bengals team 12 times – he is 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS in those games. When Taylor doesn’t have Burrow, Tomlin is 4-1 SU/ATS. When he does, Tomlin is 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS.
In his coaching career, Tomlin is 25-11-1 ATS vs. the Bengals as a whole – by far his most profitable opponent ATS (PIT has covered four straight). When the game is set in Cincinnati, Tomlin is 13-5-1 ATS (PIT has covered three straight).
➤Home teams on a Thursday are under .500 ATS in 6 of the last 7 seasons, overall they are 50-61-1 ATS since 2019, including 45-54-1 ATS at home at night in that span.
➤Overall, the Steelers have lost three straight night games outright, losing to the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns since November of last year.
Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has never lost four straight night games outright – the Steelers haven’t lost four straight night games since 1984-86, when they lost six straight.
Since 2019, Tomlin has coached nine games at night on short rest. Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU/ATS in those games.
➤A historically tough spot for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye before their last game vs. the Browns, and now they play on Thursday Night Football – the ultimate short week. Teams in that spot are 13-24-1 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990), including 3-11 ATS since 2018.
➤As a favorite of 4 pts or more, Tomlin is 13-26-1 ATS since 2017, the least profitable coach in the NFL, even after covering as a 6.5-point favorite vs. the Browns last week.
Recently, though, Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU/ATS in this spot since the start of last season, beating the Browns twice and the Giants.
➤In terms of QBs familiar with facing Mike Tomlin and the Steelers – it may not be possible to find a better option than Joe Flacco. He's faced Tomlin 24 times, the most of any QB. Flacco and Tomlin haven’t faced off since 2018, so it’s been a minute.
➤Another week, and another backup QB for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out months and not weeks. Overall, Zac Taylor has had to start a backup QB 20 times in Cincinnati — he is 6-15 SU and 9-11-1 ATS in those games.
➤In the first three months of the season — September, October, November — Zac Taylor is now 27-44-1 SU…
27-27-1 SU with Joe Burrow
0-17 SU with all other QBs
Zac Taylor is 45-32-1 SU with Burrow and 8-26 SU with all other QBs (Joe Flacco, Ryan Finley, Browning, Brandon Allen, Andy Dalton).
➤Aaron Rodgers continues to get it out quick this year. 2.65 time to throw in Week 6, bottom six in the NFL, and this season, he has the quickest time to throw on all dropbacks with a minimum of 75 dropbacks. In the pressure department, only Bo Nix has been pressured less from a PCT standpoint.
➤Sean McVay has taken his team overseas for an International Series game twice, and his teams are 2-0 SU/ATS, winning by a combined margin of 57-10 in both games, covering the spread by 16 PPG.
McVay is tied with Jim Harbaugh and Todd Bowles for most ATS wins without a loss in overseas games.
Both of those overseas games for McVay came with Jared Goff at QB. Matthew Stafford has been a different story. Stafford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS himself overseas with the Lions, with his last start coming all the way back in 2015. Only one QB is 0-3 ATS or worse in International Series games – Phillip Rivers at 0-3 ATS.
➤This is the Jaguars' first overseas game of the 2025 season, but they are the veteran in this department.
This will be Jacksonville’s 14th game overseas as a franchise, and they are 7-6 SU and ATS, including 4-3 SU/ATS as underdogs. With Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville is 4-2 SU/ATS overseas and 3-4 SU/ATS without him.
➤Two notable angles for this International Series game. Sean Payton’s overseas experience vs. Aaron Glenn, plus the fact Glenn is a rookie head coach.
We’ve had nine overseas matchups where one coach had a 2+ game coaching experience in International Series games. The experienced team is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS. When the opposing coach is in his first overseas game, they are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS.
➤A few facts and trends from the 53 total international games – unders have a small edge at 27-26 after being exactly 26-26 entering last week.
Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 14-12 to the under (location of LAR/JAC this week)
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 2-0 to the under
Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 7-5 to the over
Croke Park: 1-0 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games.
They are 38-14-1 SU and 33-20 ATS.
Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
Favorites at Tottenham are 5-7 ATS. All other international stadiums: 28-12 ATS.
Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 28-9-1 SU, 23-15 ATS.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 22-17 ATS
66%+: 15-10 ATS
70%+: 9-3 ATS
➤Rams will be the 14th favorite to enter an International Series matchup coming off a true road game, those teams are 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS overseas.
When those teams coming off a road game are listed as underdogs, they are just 7-13 ATS.
➤As a favorite in road or neutral games, Sean McVay is 35-8 SU in his coaching career with the Rams. When his team played in a road/neutral game prior to this matchup, they are 11-4 SU. As above a 4-point favorite road/neutral, McVay and the Rams are 19-0 SU.
➤Jaguars didn’t cause a turnover on defense last week for the first time this season and in the Trevor Lawrence era, that’s not a good thing. Jaguars are 4-28 SU when the opponent doesn't turn it over since 2021.
➤The 2nd half has been a breeze for Rams and Stafford this year.
Stafford has 9 TD, 0 INT and a 73.3% completion pct in 2H this year. Leads NFL in pass yards and pass TDs in second half. Stafford is 5-1 2H ATS this season, he hasn’t finished above .500 2H ATS since 2017.
➤The Bears have played four games on short rest with Caleb Williams as their starting QB, like they are this week vs. the Saints – Chicago is 0-4 SU in those games, averaging just 15.2 PPG in those matchups.
Caleb is the only QB 0-4 SU or worse on short rest over the last two seasons.
➤Bears are coming off a Monday Night Football game against the Commanders.
In the Bears' last nine games, coming off a primetime matchup, they are just 2-7 SU, including 0-1 SU/ATS in Week 2 this year against the Lions.
➤ Caleb is 6-4 against the first-half spread in his career at home… a better mark than he has on the road.
Caleb has made 11 career road starts in his NFL career. He has just two 1H covers – his win against the Packers at the end of last season and last week against the Commanders. Caleb is 2-9 1H ATS on the road in his career.
➤The Saints have actually beaten the Bears in eight consecutive meetings dating back to 2008, which was the Bears' last win over New Orleans. In that span, three different Saints QBs have beaten the Bears: Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater.
On the Bears' side, Tyson Bagent, Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Jay Cutler have tried and failed, with Kyle Orton being the last Bears QB to beat New Orleans.
➤Saints have not started strong this season. They are not only 0-6 against the first-quarter spread, but they’ve been outscored 65-16 in the opening frame this year.
They are the only winless team ATS in the first quarter. Saints were 11-6 1Q ATS last year.
➤ Bears are 5-0 to their team total over this season, the last undefeated team to the over left in the NFL. Last year, the Bears finished 8-9 to their team total, over halfway to their total through five games.
➤As an underdog of under ten points, Spencer Rattler is 0-8 ATS in his career as a starter. In Rattler’s two road starts in that spot, NO was outscored 70-21.
➤Spencer Rattler began his career 0-6 against the second-half spread. In his last six starts, he is 5-1 2H ATS, only losing to the Bills in that span.
Rattler has been beyond formidable for the Saints this year. He has 6 TD passes and just 1 INT. His passer rating of 91.9 is better than Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Michael Penix and Trevor Lawrence, to name a few. He is 13th in completion pct, but more importantly, also 14th in completion pct over expected.
In Saints history, two QBs have 1 INT or less with 200+ pass attempts through six games: 2025 Spencer Rattler and 2018 Drew Brees.
➤Bears came through as an underdog at night last week. The theme continued. Since 2022, the Bears are a respectable 5-7 SU in night games and 13-31 SU in all other windows.
➤The Titans' ATS recent stretch gets all the attention, but Cleveland needs to be in the conversation. Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Browns are 6-19 ATS – 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Titans.
Browns as betting favorites hasn’t happened a lot lately. Since that 2024 calendar flip, Cleveland is 0-5 SU when closing as the betting favorite with 3 different QBs (Flacco, Watson, Winston) and now their 4th.
Cleveland has gone 11 consecutive games without scoring 18 pts or more dating back to last season.
➤Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns are just 3-6 ATS after facing the Steelers, including 1-5 ATS in their last six games after Pittsburgh. Under Stefanski, Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after facing the AFC North.
➤This will be the 6th rookie QB to face the Dolphins under Mike McDaniel – Dolphins are 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 ATS in those games – all five of these matchups though have come in Miami. The one QB to beat McDaniel? Will Levis on Monday Night Football in 2023.
➤ From a record standpoint, the difference between Tua at home and on the road is drastic. On the road or neutral site, Tua is 13-20 SU, including 1-8 SU in his last 9 starts. At home, Tua is 26-10 SU in his career.
➤Dillon Gabriel was the 41st different starting QB the Browns have had since returning to the NFL in 1999 — most in the NFL over that span.
Since 2003, only one Browns QB is above .500 SU for the franchise with a minimum of three starts for the team: Brian Hoyer at 10-6 SU.
Browns QBs within their first three career starts are just 10-33 SU since 2000, in the last decade they are 2-13 SU with wins from Baker Mayfield and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
➤Sacks get in the way of winning. Nobody can say that more than Cleveland. Since the start of last season, they are 0-14 SU when they allow 3 sacks or more. The next-closest team without a win are the Saints at 0-8 SU.
➤ Dolphins may have won the 4th quarter last week vs. the Chargers, but it required a comeback that fell short.
This season, Dolphins are now 1-5 against the 4th quarter spread and 1-5 against the second half spread – making Tua the least profitable 2H QB ATS this season.
Tua has lost his last four second halves ATS on the road entering this week.
➤Don’t just expect everything to get cleaned up. Dolphins are just 5-5 SU/ATS game after 3+ giveaways under Mike McDaniel.
➤ The Titans fired Brian Callahan on Monday, and Tennessee now faces the Patriots this week.
Let’s start with the impact on the team in recent history. Last decade, Callahan was the 23rd coach to be fired or resign in-season; those prior 22 teams went 10-12 SU and an even 11-11 ATS in their next game. At home, they are just 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS.
An upset from the Titans against the Patriots as above a 5-point underdog would be the biggest upset over the last decade for a new in-season head coach. The last bigger upset for a new head coach was Romeo Crennel at +11 back in 2011 for the Chiefs.
Here is the real impact of the in-season coaching change. Last decade, before the firing or resignation, those 23 teams had won 27.9% of games SU and 37.3% of games ATS. After the firing, they went 33.3% SU and 49% ATS, a decent improvement overall.
➤Mike Vrabel gets his first crack at his former team in the Titans this week and the game is on the road in Tennessee after the Patriots were in New Orleans last week and in Buffalo the week prior – the third game of their road trip.
Teams playing on the 3rd game of a road trip after going 2-0 SU to start the stretch are just 15-27 SU and 16-24-2 ATS over the last 20 years.
Since 2008, teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 36-62 SU (37%) – Vrabel has coached three games in this spot, all with the Titans and his teams went 1-2 SU/ATS, with their only win coming against Lamar Jackson, Ravens in the playoffs.
➤Since 2018, teams in the middle of a road trip – road game behind them, road game ahead of them still – are now 30-12 SU and 29-13 ATS, with those games 29-13 to the under in that span. In the 3rd game of that road trip, those teams are 16-24 SU (40%).
When Vrabel has coached his team on a road trip of any kind (2nd consecutive game or later on the road), his teams are 11-5 ATS.
➤In the Titans' last 25 games, they are 5-20 ATS, and they went 4-19 ATS under Brian Callahan, the worst mark for any head coach in the Super Bowl era.
In the last three seasons, the Titans are 7-24-1 ATS when the spread in the game is 7 pts or less.
➤Patriots have covered the spread in four straight road games and won three straight outright – their first 3-game road win streak since 2021.
Vrabel has covered 57% of games as an underdog, but laying more than 4 pts on the road, he is 2-5 ATS.
➤Chiefs have lost three straight games ATS vs. the Raiders, the first time they’ve done that since 2011-12 – last time they lost four straight ATS vs. Raiders was back in 2000-01.
➤As a favorite of 6 pts or more, Patrick Mahomes is 62-6 SU and 29-36-3 ATS in his career as a starter. Mahomes is 9-0 SU and 1-7-1 ATS as a 6+ pt favorite over the last two seasons. In 2025, the Chiefs are 1-0 SU/ATS in this spot, facing the Giants.
As a favorite of above a TD (-7.5 or more) since 2020, Mahomes is 36-2 SU and 13-24-1 ATS – his 36-2 SU mark has profited a bettor $495, most of 48 QBs – his 13-24-1 ATS mark has lost a bettor $1,207, worst of 48 QBs.
Mahomes’ two SU losses as above a TD favorite since 2020 have both come against the Raiders. He is 30-0 SU in this spot vs. all other teams.
➤Here are Mahomes’ biggest upsets in his career when he’s been a big favorite.
-11 vs. Raiders, 2023 (L, 20-14)
-11 vs. Raiders, 2020 (L, 40-32)
-10.5 vs. Colts, 2019 (L, 19-13)
Mahomes is 26-3 SU, 11-16-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career, with two of his three losses coming vs. the Raiders.
As a favorite of 11 pts or more, Mahomes is 6-12 ATS in his career, including 2-9 ATS in his last 11 games as that big of a favorite. His last two games as this big a favorite were both vs. the Raiders.
➤Chiefs haven’t come out fast against the Raiders lately, especially at home. Since 2022, Mahomes is 2-4 1H ATS vs. the Raiders, including 0-3 1H ATS at home, losing two of those 1st halves outright.
➤Since 2022, Mahomes is 30-32-2 ATS as a starter – he is 26-20-1 ATS vs. teams outside the AFC West and 4-12-1 ATS vs. his own division.
2-4 ATS vs. Raiders
1-4 ATS vs. Broncos
1-4-1 ATS vs. Chargers
That 4-12-1 ATS mark is the worst for any QB vs. his own division in that span.
➤ The Raiders, Cardinals, Lions and Seahawks have a bye coming up after this week and are facing opponents not in the same spot. In the last decade, teams with upcoming rest (facing a team without) are winning 57% of games and covering 58%.
In his coaching career with the Seahawks and Patriots, Pete Carroll is 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS when he has a bye coming up and his opponent doesn’t. His teams have won ten consecutive games outright in this spot.
➤Since the start of 2023, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 32-15 (68%), going under the total in that 2H by 3.5 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
➤Chiefs won the 4th quarter vs. the Lions and the Jaguars the last two weeks. This season, the Chiefs are 6-0 against the 4th quarter spread. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs are 18-8 4Q ATS, including 10-3 4Q ATS when playing at home.
➤Geno Smith leads the NFL in interceptions with 10 entering this week. He’s thrown an INT now in three straight games.
Can’t turn the ball over when facing Mahomes, who is 24-14 ATS when facing a team throwing a pick in consecutive games.
➤Chiefs are coming off a game with no turnovers and no penalties at all. Since 2019, Chiefs are 37-5 SU when they commit under 5 penalties, can’t beat KC if they don’t beat themselves.
➤Eagles have now lost two straight games, at home against the Broncos and on the road against the Giants.
- Jalen Hurts has made nine starts for Philly, where the Eagles are off consecutive losses; they are just 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in those games, losing three straight outright and four straight against the spread.
- This will be Jalen Hurts’ 22nd game off an Eagles SU loss – and Philly is just 10-11 SU and 7-14 ATS in those games.
- Eagles were 4-0 and have now lost two straight. Since 2015, teams that start 4-0 SU or better and lose two straight are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in their next game (10-3 to the under).
➤Overall, it���s hard to expect the bounce back early in the season. Teams that are over .500 SU, who lose two straight, are just 53-68-5 ATS (44%) in November or earlier since 2003.
➤The bounce back hasn’t been a great spot for Nick Sirianni’s Eagles. When Philly is coming off a loss under Sirianni, they are 7-14 ATS in their next game.
Least profitable coaches ATS coming off a SU loss (since 2021, of 67 coaches):
67. Brian Callahan: 3-14 ATS
66. Matt Rhule: 3-11 ATS
65. Nick Sirianni: 7-14 ATS
When Eagles lose their previous game by 6+ points, they are 4-11 ATS in their next game. When they lose by 7+ points, they are 2-8 ATS. When they lose by 13+ points, Philly is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their next game.
➤ The 4th quarter has been an issue for Philly. They are 1-5 against the 4th quarter spread this season. Last year, Philly was 13-8 4Q ATS on the season.
➤ Saquon Barkley has rushed for fewer than 60 yards in four straight games, the 2nd-longest streak of his career. In 2020-21 with the Giants, he went ten straight games under 60 rushing yards.
This season, Barkley is averaging 2.48 yards per carry in the second half with four 10+ yard runs. Last year, Barkley led the NFL in second-half carries, and he was averaging 6.7 yards per carry – a full four-yard difference … and he had 28 10+ yard runs.
➤Since 2018, when two teams are on extended rest, facing off, the under is hitting at a 61% rate. When that game is played during the day — not a night primetime matchup — the under is 32-13-1 (71%).
➤ Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are 5-7-1 ATS when playing a game on any extended rest, including just 2-7-1 ATS when he is an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less.
➤ After a brief view of both QBs this season, here is Carson Wentz vs. JJ McCarthy
CW: 0.19 EPA/dropback, 58% success rate, 6% TO worthy throw rate, 7.6 aDOT, 4 QB fault sacks
JM: -0.42 EPA/dropback, 44% success rate, 4.9% TO worthy throw rate, 9 aDOT, 6 QB fault sacks
➤ The Vikings defense is making an impact on opposing QBs. Under Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, Minnesota's pressure percentage increased from 27.8% in his first season in 2023 to 30.6% last year and now stands at 35.2% this year. His blitz pct was 51.9% his first season; this year it’s 45.3%.
➤The question this week: who will close as favorites?
- If Panthers…
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. Every other team in the NFL has at least 3 covers as a favorite in this span (2nd-fewest, Giants).
Longest SU Losing Streak as Favorites – Since the 1970 Merger
2021-25 Panthers, 10
1979-81 Seahawks, 8
2015-17 Bears, 7
2015-16 Falcons, 7
1973-75 Giants, 7
Since 2020, Carolina is 3-13 ATS as favorites. They’ve covered against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Dwayne Haskins in those three wins.
Carolina's last cover as a favorite: 9/23/21 at HOU (w/ Sam Darnold)
Carolina's last game as a favorite away from home: 9/18/22 vs. NYG (w/ Baker Mayfield)
If you also look at the preseason, they are 0-5 ATS as favs last 3 years — last cover coming in 2022 and between preseason, regular and post, they are 1-10 ATS as favorites since 2022 and 5-18 ATS since 2020.
- If Jets…
The Jets are now 0-6 SU this season. Teams that start 0-6 SU or worse are actually 11-4 ATS since 2020, a decent bet over the last few seasons.
If the Jets close as favorites, they would be the first 0-6 SU or worse team to close as a favorite since the 2013 Giants with Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Giants beat the Vikings and covered at home. In fact, last three teams 0-6 SU or worse, listed as favorites have won and covered, the last loss was in 2007 by the Dolphins.
➤Bryce Young is 1-15 SU in his first 16 career road starts for the Panthers, tied with Dan Pastorini for the worst record by a QB through his first 16 road starts since starts first got tracked in 1950.
Against non-divisional opponents, Bryce is 0-10 SU on the road, losing by 14.5 PPG (3-7 ATS).
The difference? At home, the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
➤ The Panthers are 6-0 against the 4th quarter spread this season after beating Miami 14-7 en route to their 17-point comeback and then beating Dallas in a comeback last week.
Carolina broke a 65-game losing streak when trailing by more than one possession at any point in the game vs. the Dolphins.
➤The Jets haven’t loved their matchups vs. the NFC lately. They are 0-7 SU vs. the NFC since the start of last season, losing those games by 10.9 PPG. The Jets are the only winless team SU vs. the opposing conference since the start of last season.
➤The Jets had an absolutely abysmal game on offense last week. New York had 82 total yards on offense and never once entered the red zone in 12 total drives.
New York is just the 4th team in the last 20 years to have fewer than 100 total yards with no red zone trips; the other three teams won their next game outright.
➤Broncos and Jets return from facing each other in London last week … and now both play in Week 7 without a bye week.
The Broncos and Jets this week will be the 29th and 30th teams to play a game on 7 days' rest or less coming off an International Series game. Those teams are actually 18-10 SU, 16-12 ATS in their next game, but 15-10 SU and 13-12 ATS when the team returns from overseas and 3-0 SU/ATS in consecutive International games.
➤ Aaron Glenn is 0-6 SU to start his career as the Jets head coach, the first coach in Jets history to start 0-5 SU or worse as head coach of the franchise.
Glenn is 3-3 ATS with the Jets so far. There have been nine different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
➤ Justin Fields has made 49 starts in his NFL career. He is 14-35 SU in those starts. When his opponent scores more than 20 pts, Fields’ teams are 0-26 SU (6-19-1 ATS), when they score 20 pts or less Fields is 14-9 SU/ATS after the loss in London to the Broncos last week.
Fields is 6-6 ATS as a favorite in his career. All six covers came with the opposing team scoring 17 points or less, and all six ATS losses came with his opponent scoring over that mark.
➤ Bryce has always struggled in the first half against the spread, with an 11-23 1H ATS mark in his career, the worst mark of any QB since he entered the league. On the road, Bryce is 4-12 1H ATS.
➤Justin Fields has started 24 career games at home for three different franchises. He is 9-14-1 against the first-half spread in those 24 games, under .500 1H ATS for all three teams:
1-2 1H ATS w/ Jets
0-2 1H ATS w/ Steelers
8-10-1 1H ATS w/ Bears
➤Panthers defense, specifically pressure and sacks, has really been a letdown this year. They beat Dallas with no sacks last week, and they have five sacks through six games.
Carolina is 1 of 32 teams to have five sacks or fewer through six games – of those 32 teams, Carolina is the 9th to be .500 SU or better in the SU column. The most recent teams are the 2024 Falcons and 2020 Panthers.
➤Broncos may have won in London last week, but they definitely didn’t look great with just 13 total pts and a weak passing and rushing performance.
The good: Sean Payton is 22-8 ATS as a head coach after his team scores fewer than 14 pts in their previous game, including 4-0 ATS with the Broncos. Since 2003, that 22-8 ATS mark is the best of any head coach.
The bad: A game after winning but not covering, Payton is just 7-15 ATS when listed as a favorite. The close win might be a sign of tough times to come.
➤ Jaxson Dart has 167 rushing yards in his three starts with a 65.9% completion pct and the Giants are 2-1 SU in those games. Only one other QB had 150+ rush yds, 65%+ completion pct and went 2-1 SU or better in their first three starts: Jayden Daniels last year.
➤Giants have a ridiculous 110 rushing attempts in their last three games under Jaxson Dart, their most in a 3-game span in two years. They had just 71 rush attempts in their first three weeks under Russell Wilson. In Weeks 1-3, the Giants had a rush success rate of 40.3%. Over the last 3 weeks, that is up to 44.8%.
➤Broncos and Jets return from facing each other in London last week … and now both play in Week 7 without a bye week.
The Broncos and Jets this week will be the 29th and 30th teams to play a game on 7 days rest or less coming off an International Series game. Those teams are actually 18-10 SU, 16-12 ATS in their next game, but 15-10 SU and 13-12 ATS when the team returns from overseas and 3-0 SU/ATS in consecutive International games.
➤Jaxson Dart has started three games for the Giants, and he is 2-1 SU, but all three games as an underdog, so a $100 bettor would be up $450 taking him to win, making him the most profitable QB on the moneyline so far this season.
➤Nobody refocuses his team better than Sean Payton. After a road or neutral game, Denver is 8-3 SU at home under Payton. Since 2011, his teams are winning over 70% of their home games in this spot, winning by almost 8 PPG.
➤ The Giants are off a massive win at home against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week. After a SU win, Daboll’s Giants are 9-9-1 ATS, but just 3-6 ATS when that next game is on the road, including 1-8 SU in those games, losing eight straight.
➤ On any extended prep time, Brian Daboll is 7-4 ATS as a head coach and he is .500 ATS or better in all three seasons. On 10+ days rest, his teams are 5-2 ATS.
➤ Bo Nix has made 24 career starts in the NFL and he is 9-3 ATS as a favorite and 5-7 ATS as an underdog. In those 12 games as a favorite, Nix is 12-0 in a 6-point teaser.
The one thing Nix always does well is not to get blown out. He is 22-2 in a 6-point teaser in his 24 career starts, covering in a 6-point tease in his last 14 regular-season starts.
➤Daniel Jones will make his 8th career start outside of the EST and CST time zones. In those seven previous games, his teams are 2-5 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 3.5 PPG. Under Shane Steichen, the Colts are 0-2 SU/ATS away from EST/CST, failing to cover the spread by 8.5 PPG. When playing back east (CST/EST), he is 36-32 ATS in his career and 4-1 ATS with the Colts.
Over the previous two seasons, Daniel Jones was 3-13 ATS as a starting QB for the Giants. Of 81 QBs to make a start in that span, his mark of -$1,032 on a $100 bet made him the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
➤ Shane Steichen has coached 23 games in the months of September and October and the Colts are 15-7 ATS in those games. After an ATS loss in his last game, the Colts are 5-0 ATS in the first two months of the season.
➤Chargers have lost three consecutive games ATS vs. the Dolphins, Commanders and Giants. In his pro career, Jim Harbaugh has never lost 4 straight ATS. The Chargers themselves haven’t lost four straight ATS since 2020.
➤Coming back from Miami is never fun. Last decade, teams coming off a road game against the Dophins are just 30-41-3 ATS in their next game, failing to cover the spread by over 2 PPG. Teams are 0-2 ATS so far this season in this spot.
➤Pressure? What pressure. This season, Daniel Jones is 37-of-56 passing while under pressure, his 66.1% completion pct is the best mark in the NFL.
In Week 6 he went 9-9 and in the last three weeks he is at 77.4% completion pct under pressure. This season, Daniel Jones has 3 TD and 0 INT under pressure.
➤Jones is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season – the only QB 4-0 SU or better as a favorite in 2025. Jones was 8-6 SU as a favorite entering this season and never had a season with more than 3 SU wins as a favorite.
➤ We have another dome vs. dome matchup this week, with both teams playing in for the most part an indoor stadium. Since 2020, when two dome teams play, the under is 87-73 (54%), a bit contrary to what most would assume, including 27-12 since the start of last season.
When the total is 45 or higher, they are 65-47 (57%) to the under in that span.
➤Don’t doubt Harbaugh. As an NFL coach, he is 31-14-3 ATS when the line either doesn’t move from its opening to closing lines or if the line moves against him (ex. Here is -6 to -1.5 on the lookahead line). Harbaugh is 2nd to Bill Belichick for best mark ATS in that spot.
➤Cowboys/Commanders have an over/under north of 53 early in the week – if it closes above 53 it will be the highest over/under in the series since 1983, when it closed at 53.5. No Dallas/Washington total has closed at 54 or higher since at least 1980.
➤Cowboys have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Commanders, including four straight covers at home and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Washington at home.
Dak Prescott is 10-3 ATS vs. Washington in his career, the best QB ATS vs. Washington in the last 20 years. Dak is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home against Washington.
➤Story so far this season in Dallas is George Pickens, especially with CeeDee Lamb out. Pickens has a TD in five straight games – the longest streak for any player this season. Here were his odds: +125, +115, +140, +135, +180
➤In the first half of this season, Dallas' pass defense has been getting torched. Seven pass TD, 0 INT, 117 passer rating with almost 75% completion pct.
➤With Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have played four games on short rest like they will this week against the Cowboys off Monday Night Football. All four have come on the road with Washington scoring 18 pts or more in all four games, covering the spread by 11 PPG.
Off a loss, it is also worth noting that Jayden Daniels has scored 27, 42, 26, 18, 40, 21 off a loss with Washington (4-2 ATS).
➤Commanders have the Chiefs on deck next week on Monday Night Football. Since 2020, teams with KC on the horizon are 62-38-1 ATS, covering the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤Both the Cardinals and Bengals are in a free fall. They have both lost four straight after beginning the season 2-0 SU. They are the first duo of teams to do that in the same season since 1990.
➤Since Kyler Murray arrived in 2019, QBs not named Kyler are 4-15 SU for the Cardinals, including 2-14 SU since 2022. Let’s do a comparison.
Kyler: 38-49-1 SU (44%), 47-39-2 ATS (55%)
Not Kyler: 4-15 SU (21%), 10-9 ATS (53%)
➤ In case Jacoby Brissett has to start again. Matt LaFleur and the Packers have been a nightmare for backup QBs. LaFleur’s teams are 16-2 SU and 10-8 ATS facing a backup QB.
A lead won’t matter for Green Bay. Under Gannon, the Cardinals are 10-13 SU when leading by 7 pts or more at any point.
➤An unreal unlucky stretch for the Cardinals to lose four straight games outright all by 4 pts or less. They are the first team to do that since the 2017 49ers
In the Wild Card era, we’ve only seen seven other teams lose 4 straight like that and they went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their next game.
➤Cardinals have the bye coming up next week after their game against the Packers. In two games under Jonathan Gannon with their bye week on deck, Arizona is 2-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by almost 24 PPG.
➤With or without Kyler this week, the Cardinals are going to be home underdogs against the Packers. Under Gannon, Arizona is 11-8 ATS vs. teams who are above .500 and 10-6 ATS when listed as underdogs.
➤The defense hasn’t arrived for Jordan Love on the road yet. In his career, Love is 0-6 SU on the road when he scores fewer than 20 pts, 9-5-1 SU when he scores 20+ pts.
➤Since 2023, the two worst home teams ATS in the NFL both host games in primetime and they both come from the same division…
Worst ATS Record Since Start of 2023
6-14 ATS – Seahawks
7-14 ATS – 49ers
5-12-2 ATS – Patriots
5-12-2 ATS – Titans
Only one SF QB is above .500 ATS at home in the last decade: Trey Lance at 2-0 ATS.
➤Since the start of last season, the 49ers are 6-17 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room, including 0-6 3Q ATS this season.
Since the beginning of last season, the 49ers are 4-19 against the second-half spread – every other team in the NFL has at least 8 2H ATS wins in that span.
➤A week after Mac Jones throws two INT, it's easy to say this: The value of Brock Purdy is hard to quantify, but his efficiency is a starting point. Since the start of 2022, Purdy has led the NFL in success rate with 53.6%. This season, Purdy leads the NFL in success rate, too. Purdy is 10th in EPA/play, Mac is 20th of 40 total QBs.
➤Christian McCaffrey is having a season through the air. He has 46 receptions (2nd) on 60 targets (3rd) through six games.
Over the last 40 years, 52 players have achieved 45+ and 60+ through six games – only two have done so not as a WR: 2025 Christian McCaffrey and 2018 Zach Ertz.
This season, McCaffrey is 6-0 in his receiving yards over, eclipsing 50+ yards in all six games through the air.
➤Both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner have been with the 49ers together since 2019, this will be the first game they play without one of them. Warner missed one game, back in December of 2021, a loss to the Seahawks. San Francisco is 72-45 SU with Warner since 2019 and now 7-14 SU without Nick Bosa.
➤A surprising stat to some. Teams off an outright win as a dog in primetime, like the Falcons against the Bills last week, who play in primetime again, are 27-20 SU, 27-19-1 ATS in the last 20 years.
➤The question is always the same with the Falcons: Can they do it again? Falcons haven’t finished a season above .500 ATS after a SU win since 2019 – they are 11-22-1 ATS after a win since 2020, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
➤A Monday Night Football game we should all look forward to.
Two teams averaging 27+ PPG.
A total of 53+ (most likely)
Week 7 or later
We’ve only seen three of those games over the last four seasons – they all involved the Lions, two went over and Detroit lost all three games outright, with the three games averaging 60 PPG combined.
➤Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 15-12-1 SU, 20-8 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered 11 in a row dating back to November 1st of 2022.
➤Jared Goff is 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite this season, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Goff is 25-10-1 ATS (71%) as a favorite in the last three seasons, covering by 4.9 PPG. In the 11 non-covers for Goff, DET still scored more than 21 pts in nine of them.
➤ Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have dominated in night games as a duo .. before last week. In the regular season, Goff and Campbell are 12-3 SU, including 7-1 SU since the start of last season.
During the regular season, Goff is 19-3 SU as a favorite in night games, including 9-0 SU with the Lions.
Goff has made 39 starts at night in primetime in his pro career. He is 21-5 SU as a favorite and 4-9 SU as an underdog.
➤Another week, another Bucs 3rd quarter cash. Tampa Bay is now 6-0 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room this season.
Some of their 3rd quarter success has been Baker. When the Bucs have been trailing this year, Mayfield has 9 TDs, 1 INT, 16 20+ yd throws, the 2nd-most “big throws” next to Matthew Stafford.
➤Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2+ passing TDs in 11 of his last 12 games, including his last eight games in primetime.
In 2022, the Bucs went 3-14-1 to their team's total over under Tom Brady. Since bringing in Baker Mayfield in 2023, the Bucs are 26-17 to their team total over, being over .500 in all three seasons under Baker.
➤Indoor games have always been a good thing for Jared Goff in Detroit and even late L.A. days. Since 2019, he is 43-18-1 ATS in indoor games, over .500 ATS each season, covering by 4.5 PPG with an ATS ROI of +34% in those 62 games.
➤Bucs and Baker Mayfield are the Cardiac Pirates. Since Baker arrived in 2023, the Bucs are 28-15 against the second-half spread, the best mark in the NFL.
Here is Baker’s record 2H ATS career. The Bucs Effect. He went 25-45-1 2H ATS before his current stint in Tampa Bay.
Bucs: 28-15 2H ATS
Rams: 1-3 2H ATS
Panthers: 1-5 2H ATS
Browns: 23-37-1 2H ATS
➤With the Buccaneers, Baker is 16-8 ATS as an underdog, covering the spread by 5.6 PPG. When Baker starts, the Bucs are 22-2 in a 6-point teaser when listed as an underdog.
Since joining Tampa, Baker is the most profitable QB ATS as an underdog.
➤The home vs. road differences for Seattle are glaring.
On the road, Seattle is 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS under Macdonald. At home, they are just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS. The only coach with a worse home ATS record in that span? Brian Callahan at 0-10 ATS, who now doesn’t have a job.
➤Texans are 5-0 against the 4th quarter spread this season,1 of 3 undefeated teams in that category this season with the Panthers and Chiefs. Last season, the Texans were 8-11 4Q ATS.
➤Texans taking in the ultimate bye week after not playing in Week 6 and playing late on Monday Night Football in Week 7 – a total of 15 days between games. Teams with that much rest are 20-11 ATS when playing on the road dating back to 2003.
➤DeMeco Ryans has coached six career games with any extended prep time; all six have had CJ Stroud at QB – Houston is just 3-3 SU, but 4-2 ATS, 2-0 ATS when listed as underdogs.
➤Texans have had their share of issues playing in primetime as a franchise. They are 18-30 SU and 15-31-2 ATS in night games.
DeMeco Ryans is 3-3 ATS himself in night games, and with a cover against Seattle, he would have the 2nd-most covers at night of any Texans HC – Bill O’Brien went 7-13-1 ATS.
➤In franchise history, the Texans have only traveled west to Seattle twice – in 2005 and 2017, they lost both games outright, allowing 83 combined pts to the Seahawks.
Since 2020, the Texans have played five games in MST or PST, and they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games. Houston and the Browns are the only two teams without a win outright in this spot since 2020.
➤Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards entering Week 7 … by 80 yards with 696 yards. JSN has hit the over on his receiving yards in 5 of 6 games, going under by 2 yards vs. the Cardinals.
Since 2000, players with 696+ rec yds and as high a yards per reception as JSN (16.7) through six games: 2023 Tyreek Hill and 2005 Santana Moss.
51 1st round WRs have faced Texans under DeMeco, three have 100+ yards (Chase, Cooper, G. Wilson), 10 of 51 caught a TD.
➤A tough test for Darnold. Texans are allowing 12.2 PPG, the fewest in the NFL this year. In Darnold’s career, he is 14-7 SU and 13-6-2 ATS when facing a defense allowing 20 PPG or less, including 7-2 ATS when they allow 18 PPG or less.
Since 2019, Darnold is 14-4 SU when facing a defense allowing 20 PPG or less. His losses are to Goff, Brady, Lamar and Philip Rivers.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Look at Bet Labs and Action Network for updated wind data, but we have four games listed at 10+ MPH early in the week.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Under performing underdogs is the focus here. 8-3 ATS so far this season and 58% ATS since 2019.
Matches: DAL, NYG, NO
System: Both Vikings and Eagles on extended rest before a normal, Sunday window game. Second match for this system this season (1-0 so far).
Matches: PHI/MIN
System: Have to check the markets here. This is a system that depends on high totals and a high total ticket game — lots of action. The higher the profile the game is, the better the under does with higher totals.
Matches: DAL/WAS, ATL/SF
Check current lines.
System: Bengals are coming off a hard fought ATS win in Lambeau. Teams after playing in Lambeau are 2-0 ATS this season and 56% ATS since 2003.
Matches: CIN
