Best Prop Bets & Picks for Packers vs. 49ers on Sunday Night Football
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Jones
- The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers face off on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET) in a game that has massive playoff implications.
- It's also a game that's presenting a few prop bets that have betting value.
- After analyzing our player projections and comparing them to the market, Mike Randle picks out three props with the most value, including the over/under of receptions for Packers RB Aaron Jones.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities for bettors.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
49ers vs. Packers Prop Bets
My Sunday night prop bets have hit at a 77.4% (24-7) rate this season. Now let’s take a look at two props offering value for the Sunday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers.
Packers RB Aaron Jones
The Pick: Under 3.5 Receptions (+100)
Bet Quality: 10/10
The stinginess of the San Francisco pass defense encourages this counter-intuitive prop bet. The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest running back receptions (37) and receiving yards (257) on the season. Overall, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest running back fantasy points as well.
The positive juice (+100) is based on the season-long success of Jones. He has per-game averages of 4.6 targets and 3.5 receptions, but only has one reception over his past two games.
Jones also continues to share snaps with fellow running back Jamaal Williams; Jones has only one snap share higher than 61% in his last five games (PlayerProfiler).
Our projection of 2.8 receptions is 23% under the implied total of 3.6 receptions. I would bet this prop down to -110.
49ers RB Tevin Coleman
The Pick: Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Bet Quality: 9/10
Even with fellow running back Matt Breida listed as doubtful for this game, San Francisco seems committed to a three-man rotational backfield.
Coleman has been a limited factor in the passing game all season. His seasonal averages of 2.8 targets and 2.1 receptions per game are both outside the top 40 among all running backs.
Coleman’s snap shares the past four games have been 40%, 51.5%, 53.4% and 43.8%. Look for head coach Kyle Shanahan to deploy both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson in rotation on Sunday night.
The Packers’ run funnel defense has also allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (114.1 yards) and second-most rushing touchdowns (11).
Our FantasyLabs projection of 15.1 receiving yards is 18% below his implied total. I would bet this 9-rated prop down to -140.
This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 344-249-14 (57% win rate).
Packers TE Jimmy Graham
The Pick: Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bet Quality: 9/10
Graham (ankle) was limited in practice all week, and this 49ers defense is the best against opposing tight ends, allowing an average of just 3.4 receptions and 23.1 yards per game to the position.
Against a strong San Francisco pass rush look for Graham to help block on the line, limiting tight end pass routes. His pass routes run have decreased from a season-high 38 in Week 4 to just 14 in Week 10.
Graham’s season-long average of 31 receiving yards per game is greatly boosted by his seven deep targets (fifth among all tight ends). It is unlikely the 33-year-old tight end will be able to tally big yardage plays on the road against the NFL’s second-most efficient offense.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 25.6 receiving yards is 17% below his implied total. I would also bet this 9-rated prop down to -140.