Packers vs. Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks: How to Play this Over/Under

Packers vs. Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks: How to Play this Over/Under article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott

  • Our staff breaks down Sunday's NFC showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys (-3.5).
  • Compare the odds to Sean Koerner's projected spread and over/under, and see how Stuckey is betting the total.

Packers at Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks

  • Packers Spread: +3.5
  • Cowboys Spread: -3.5
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Two of the NFC’s best will meet on Sunday afternoon. But which team has the edge?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring a staff pick and Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Packers vs. Cowboys Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

The Cowboys are healthier, but are expected to be without Tyron Smith (ankle) while La’el Collins (back) has missed practice so far this week (though is reportedly expected to play). Both rank inside the top 10 offensive tackles in Pro Football Focus grades, so Dak Prescott could have his work cut out for him against a Packers defense that ranks fourth in PFF’s pass-rush grades.

The Packers could also be down key players with Davante Adams (toe) and Kevin King (groin) missing practice so far. Adams doesn’t need to practice to play, but if he doesn’t practice on Friday, I’d think it’s unlikely he suits up. Aaron Jones could also be in for increased reps given Jamaal Williams (concussion) should also be out this week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys Run Offense & Defense vs. Packers Run Defense & Offense

On the surface, the biggest mismatch in this game is the Cowboys’ rush offense vs. the Packers’ run defense, which has struggled to start the season.

Led by Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys are averaging a top-10 4.9 yards per rush. Now they get a defense that’s one of only four to allow five or more yards per carry so far this season. And per PFF, the Packers’ overall run defense ranks 29th out of 32 teams.

The Packers have the league’s worst run defense on runs up the middle between the guards. And that’s where the Cowboys have ran in more than 60% of their rushing plays this season.

Now, having said that, the Packers do get a break with Smith — one of the best offensive tackles in football — expected to be out. If Collins’ status changes, Cam Fleming and Connor Williams would be an enormous downgrade and could spell trouble against a Packers team that ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate thanks to new acquisitions Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, who rank inside the top 15 in QB pressures among edge defenders.

Still, even if Smith and Collins are both out, the Packers have to find a way to get better up the middle when rushing the ball on offense and when defending runs up the middle. The stuff rates (hit at or behind the line of scrimmage) of each respective teams so far reinforces this story:

  • Stuffed rank offense: Dallas No. 1; Green Bay No. 29
  • Stuffed rank defense: Dallas No. 16; Green Bay No. 30

If the Packers can’t get more push up the middle on both sides of the ball, you’re going to see continued struggles on short-yardage situations — whether third-and-short or near the goal line — which cost them their game against the Eagles. And if the Cowboys can establish the run up the middle, the rest of their offense can flow from there with playaction and easier throws for Prescott, who has led a top-two unit in both red-zone touchdown and third-down scoring percentage. For comparison, the Packers rank 11th and 27th, respectively. Stuckey

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -3.5
  • Projected Total: 46

This matchup sets up perfectly for a big game from Elliott in which the Cowboys attack the Packers’ weakness in their run defense and avoid their strength, which has been their pass defense thus far. By grinding out with Zeke, it will allow Dallas to shorten the game and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.

We’ve seen the Packers be a much more balanced team in tight games this season, leaning on their running game/defense much more than years past. Rodgers erupted for 422 yards against the Eagles due to Philly being a pass funnel defense and also because the Packers were in comeback mode at times during Thursday Night Football.

Because all of the above, the opening total of 48 has come down to 47 despite near split action. I bet sharps are going to keep betting it down closer to 46 since the ideal game flow for both teams leans toward the under.Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Under 47

I like the under between two teams with above-average coverage units and pass rushes. Smith being out (and a potentially hampered Collins) will really hurt the overall efficiency of the Cowboys’ offense, which starts with their offensive line, which for my money is the best in the business.

With the Packers’ propensity for getting to the QB and with three corners all ranked inside the top 25 in coverage grades by PFF, I think you’ll see an even heavier than normal use of Zeke to try to exploit the Green Bay run defense.

I also think we (including myself) prematurely overrated this Cowboys offense after wins over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins — three of the NFL’s worst defenses.

Meanwhile, the Packers are averaging only 3.5 yards per rush — 26th in the NFL, so I don’t think they can really exploit the run defense of Dallas, which has struggled at times. And the offense in general is still working out some kinks in a new system.

I think the total is a few points too high. The first team to 24 should get this done. I’d play the under down to 46.

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