Steelers-Broncos Betting Preview: Should Denver Really Be a Home Underdog?

Betting odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

• Spread: Steelers -3
• Over/Under: 46.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Pros have bought into the Broncos with multiple sharp action indicators being triggered on Denver at +3.5 and +3.

The Steelers are getting 72% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here), but the spread has moved in the Broncos' favor.— Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Ben Roethlisberger is 26-8 (76.5%) straight up when playing on the road in November or later against an opponent with a negative point differential, beating his opponents by an average of eight points per game.

He's played 10 of those 34 games coming off another road game. He's 9-1 SU, winning by 9.9 points per game, according to our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams

The Broncos rushed for 108 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in their win over the Chargers last week, scorching Los Angeles' rush defense for three touchdowns on the ground.

Under Vance Joseph, the Broncos are 4-12 (25%) ATS the game after rushing for 100 or more yards. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Steelers OLB T.J. Watt vs. Broncos RT Jared Veldheer

Watt is having a breakout second season, averaging one sack per game and routinely displaying the power and speed that made him a first-round selection in the 2017 draft.

Lining up almost exclusively on the left side of the defense, Watt has benefitted from facing right tackles this season. And while Veldheer has had a respectable career, he hasn’t had a Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade higher than 62.5 since 2016.  Of Denver’s five starting linemen, Veldheer has the lowest PFF grade.

Because of the interior pressure defensive end Cameron Heyward and nose tackle Javon Hargrave generate, the Broncos will be unable to give Veldheer significant blocking support along the line. As a result, Watt could have a big game rushing the passer one-on-one vs. Veldheer.

Watt already has three multi-sack games on the season: When he has an advantageous matchup, he really exploits it. And this matchup is definitely in his favor.— Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Steelers

Both teams are fairly healthy entering this matchup. The Broncos are could potentially only be without safety Dymonte Thomas (ankle), linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee), cornerback Bradley Roby (concussion) and wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton (knee).

The Steelers are even better positioned. Only defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt (elbow) and right tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) are dealing with major injuries.

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: It’s tough to overstate just how great Chris Harris Jr. has been in the slot for the better part of the past half decade. Overall, he’s led all NFL slot corners in most coverage snaps per reception allowed in four consecutive seasons.

This is bad news for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has spent 72% of his snaps in the slot this season.

Antonio Brown has a league-high 11 touchdowns through 10 games, but only five opposing wide receivers have gained more than 100 yards in Denver over the past five seasons.

The Broncos' defense ranks fourth in Football Outsiders' overall and pass DVOA this season. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Broncos +3

There is a shortfall between the market perception of the Broncos and their performance, especially at home.

Yes, they're an unimpressive 4-6, but they've played one of the most difficult schedules. Let’s focus on their home games. After opening the season with two straight home wins, the Broncos have lost three straight home games to the Texans, Chiefs and Rams — three division leaders with a combined 26-6 record.

You might say: "If they lost to division leaders, they will do so again vs. Pittsburgh." But it's about how the Broncos lost those games: A missed game-winning field goal as time expired against the Texans — a game the Broncos should have won — then by only three points to the Rams and by four to the Chiefs, who had to rally in the fourth quarter.

The Broncos also lost on the road to the Chiefs, which means four of Denver's six losses have come to division leaders, and all in one possession games.

The Steelers have played one of the NFL's softer schedules. They've also benefited from a down season in the AFC North and from being on the right side of late-game magic. While the Broncos are coming off a road win against a team above .500, the Steelers have played only two teams above .500 all season. Both came at home, and they split. The Broncos have played five such games.

Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have historically come out flat on the road against teams below .500: He's a horrifying 15-28-1 ATS (34.9%) for a -28.1% ROI on the road against teams below .500, failing to cover by almost a field goal per game, which is close to what I think this line is off by.

Tomlin is more of a player’s coach who relies on emotion more than X's and O's. He struggles to get his team up for games against inferior opponents on the road — look no further than last week, when the Steelers came out completely disinterested against the Jaguars,

His road moneyline record paints an even better picture: Tomlin has won 68.3% of his road games against opponents above .500, but only 54.5% against opponents below .500.

A few late-game breaks and a much easier schedule has driven a perception gap that is larger than reality.

I think the Broncos end the Steelers' six-game winning streak but will gladly take the points in another inflated line. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.