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The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) and the New Orleans Saints (2-4) will clash in the Week 7 NFL Paris Game on Sunday, Oct. 25. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Steelers are 3-point favorites over the Saints on the spread, with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Pittsburgh is a -168 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New Orleans is a +142 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Steelers vs Saints predictions for the NFL Paris Game.
Steelers vs Saints Prediction
- Steelers vs Saints pick: Steelers -3 | Jaylen Warren Longest Rush Escalator
My Steelers vs. Saints best bets are Pittsburgh to cover the spread and a Jaylen Warren longest rush escalator. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Steelers vs Saints Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | -166 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | +140 |
- Steelers vs Saints Moneyline: Steelers -166, Saints +140
- Steelers vs Saints Total: 44.5
- Steelers vs Saints Spread: Steelers -3, Saints +3
Steelers vs Saints NFL Week 7 Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview
The metrics make it exceptionally clear which one of these teams is better right now. The Steelers rank in the top 12 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, making them a top-12 team overall.
I'll be honest, it doesn't necessarily feel like that to me either, but the numbers don't lie.
The biggest mismatch on the board is Pittsburgh's No. 3 rushing offense going up against a nonexistent New Orleans run defense. The Steelers' young offensive line is nasty, mean, and absolutely dominating the line of scrimmage.
With a top-10 defense against both the run and the pass backing them up, Pittsburgh has a very simple, classic formula available to them in Paris: run the football, play defense, and get the win.
New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
This is simply not the team we thought the Saints were going to be coming into the season. They have plummeted down to 29th in overall DVOA and feature a bottom-quarter offense and the second-worst defense in the NFL.
The Saints are last in the NFL against the run (No. 32 in rush defense DVOA). They literally cannot stop anyone on the ground right now.
Offensively, they haven't been the same team either. Their downfield passing attack has completely dried up since Tyler Shough picked up a hand injury.
It is difficult to envision New Orleans consistently moving the ball against a stout Steelers front, and it is even harder to picture them getting off the field when Pittsburgh decides to run it down their throats.
Steelers vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
A gap from 12th to 29th in overall DVOA is massive, and it is worth more than three points on a neutral field.
The neutral field is key here. With international games, I always start with the favorite.
Excluding Jaguars games because they're such a regular overseas, favorites in international games are 29-15 ATS, a 66% cover rate. With a spread of three or less, international favorites are an awesome 16-5 ATS (76%).
I am laying the field goal with Pittsburgh.
If we love the Steelers' running game in this matchup, we want running back overs. But which guy do you play: Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle?
Dowdle is eating up about 25% of the snaps and getting around 10 touches a game. Because it's a committee, Dowdle's presence limits Warren to roughly 11-14 carries. Because of that volume cap, Warren usually tops out around 50 rushing yards — unless he breaks a big play.
So, let's just bet the big play.
Warren has ripped off a rush of 16 yards or longer in five of his six games this season.
The Saints' run defense is so abysmal that they have already allowed a double-digit run 21 times this season, at least twice in every single game. They have also allowed a run of 15+ yards seven times, including gashes of 21, 36, and 59 yards.
Warren's longest rush prop is sitting at 13.5 yards. He has already recorded runs of 24, 35, and 50 yards this year, so let's build a light escalator in case he busts out into the open field against this porous defense.
It's Sunday morning in France — let's get wild.
Steelers vs Saints Picks:
- Steelers -3
- Jaylen Warren Longest Rush Over 13.5 (bet365)
- Escalator Rung 1: Warren Longest Rush 20+ Yards (+225 at bet365)
- Escalator Rung 2: Warren Longest Rush 50+ Yards (+1150 at bet365)
