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Broncos vs Raiders Odds, Picks, Prediction | NFL Week 11

Broncos vs Raiders Odds, Picks, Prediction | NFL Week 11 article feature image
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Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Courtland Sutton.

Broncos vs Raiders Odds

Sunday, Nov. 20
4:05 p.m. ET
FOX
Broncos Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-118
41.5
-106o / -114u
-144
Raiders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-104
41.5
-106o / -114u
+122
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This season has been a struggle for the Denver Broncos. Russell Wilson was supposed to come in and save this franchise, but many fans are calling for his head after just nine games.

On the other side, a lot was also expected from the Raiders this year. Las Vegas has failed to meet expectations and currently holds the second overall pick in the draft.

One of the biggest casualties of this Denver Broncos’ failure has been Courtland Sutton. Heading into the year, this was shaping up to be the best season of his career. As the offense has sputtered, Sutton has been left mostly ineffective. However, there is reason to believe he may have a solid game Sunday.

Broncos vs. Raiders Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Broncos and Raiders match up statistically:

Broncos vs. Raiders DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 18 4
Pass DVOA 20 3
Rush DVOA 7 20
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 31 32
Pass DVOA 25 32
Rush DVOA 28 24

Courtland Sutton is one of the more talented receivers in the league when he’s healthy and has good quarterback play. He’s been healthy this season, but hasn’t received the second part of that equation whatsoever. The Broncos rank 31st in the league in dropback success rate, only beating out the Carolina Panthers. This has lead to Sutton having the least efficient season of his career.

Sutton started off the year strong. He had 72 yards or more in each of the first three games before only getting 52 against the Raiders in their first matchup. In mid-October, things shifted away from Sutton in the offense and he had three straight games with under 23 receiving yards.

Suddenly though, there is no competition for targets in the Denver offense. KJ Hamler missed last weekend’s loss to the Titans with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss a few weeks. Early in that game, Jerry Jeudy also went down with an injury.

This leaves Denver with just one of its top three pass-catching options available on Sunday. Sutton did get a lion’s share of the targets a week ago after Jeudy went down. He had 11 targets and hauled in six of them for 66 yards.

Aside from Sutton, there is not much receiving talent left for the Broncos to target this weekend. The other receivers on this roster include former quarterback Kendall Hinton and three rookies, Montrell Washington, Jalen Virgil and Brandon Johnson. Virgil was able to come through last week with his first and only career catch, a 66-yard touchdown.

Denver does have a few tight ends who will take some targets, including rookie Greg Dulcich. Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray both also had their fair share of targets a week ago.

The Titans were still able to keep Sutton and the Broncos’ offense in check. However, Tennessee has one of the better defenses in the AFC. The Raiders … do not.

Las Vegas ranks 31st in the league in dropback success rate allowed and 32nd in EPA per play.  If there is a game for the Broncos’ passing offense to get right, it would be this one.

Betting Picks

I believe Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards total is set way too low this week. Things line up perfectly for Sutton to have double-digit targets coming his way in this game.

Against a putrid Raiders’ secondary, Sutton should easily exceed 60.5 yards on Sunday.

Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 60.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 66.5

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