Raiders vs Chargers Props: Austin Ekeler, Jakobi Meyers, More
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Ekeler.
Raiders vs Chargers Player Props
I didn't have a Raiders vs. Chargers pick on the spread or total, but I'll make up for that with three player props. Check them out below.
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Last week we saw the Chargers give Ekeler more competition for early-down work by making Isaiah Spiller active for the first time, and Spiller saw a season-high six carries. Joshua Kelley was also mixing in, as usual, in the first half.
This appeared to be the plan even before Justin Herbert suffered his season-ending injury. I’m guessing with the Chargers' season effectively over, we'll see Kelley and Spiller as involved or even more involved going forward on early downs.
It’s also a game where the Chargers will struggle to move the ball without Herbert and Keenan Allen. They'll want to use Ekeler as a weapon in the passing game, so that's even more reason to give him more breaks on early downs.
It’ll also be easier for the Raiders to focus on slowing down Ekeler here. Maxx Crosby is now probable, which is good, and LB Robert Spillane will likely do a good job of making sure Ekeler can’t get past the second level for big gains.
I'm projecting his median closer to 40.5 with a 60% chance he stays under 47.5.
Meyers only has six catches that have cleared this all season.
Meyers has seen a dip in production ever since Aidan O’Connell took over as the team’s starter in Week 9. He saw a 24% target rate from Weeks 1-8, but since O’Connell has taken over he’s only seen a 16% target rate.
A lot of that has to do with Hunter Renfrow having a larger role since O’Connell took over. The rookie QB has targeted Renfrow on 23% of his routes run. I expect that trend to continue, as Renfrow has the easier matchup in the slot against Essang Bassey.
O'Connell hasn’t been targeting Meyers downfield as much the past couple of weeks. Last week, Meyers' average depth of target was just 0.7 yards downfield. Also, without left tackle Kolton Miller, O'Connell may not have much time to throw downfield.
With no Herbert or Keenan Allen for the Chargers, I expect the Raiders to have a fairly conservative game plan.
I'm projecting Meyers' median in this market closer to 16.5, with a 60% chance to stay under.
The Raiders have provided the fewest tackles per game to opposing LBs. That’s because they have averaged the fewest plays per game and target their TEs at the fourth-lowest rate.
The Chargers have typically seen 51.5 tackle opportunities per game, but I’m only projecting the Raiders providing around 45.5.
LB Kenneth Murray Jr. and S Derwin James rack up a ton of tackles, which makes it tougher for Kendricks to clear this if there are fewer opportunities to go around. Kendricks comes out often on third downs, and I expect the Raiders to face third downs at a higher rate than your average team tonight.
With the Chargers' season essentially over now, we could see them give third-round rookie Dayain Henley some more playing time, at Kendricks' expense.
I'm projecting Kendricks for closer to six tackles and a 58% chance to stay under 6.5, but he has a lower floor than usual here.
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