Raiders vs Chiefs: Odds, Picks, Predictions
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Derek Carr.
- The Chiefs are big favorites on Monday Night Football against the Raiders.
- Kansas City is in first place, while Las Vegas trails by two games.
- Chris Raybon previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 52 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 52 -110o / -110u | -350 |
The Chiefs hammered the Raiders by a combined score of 89-23 in two meetings last season. Should we expect more of the same this time around?
Raiders vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Raiders and Chiefs match up statistically:
Raiders vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 20 | 14 | |
| Pass DVOA | 21 | 21 | |
| Rush DVOA | 13 | 5 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 5 | 20 | |
| Pass DVOA | 7 | 22 | |
| Rush DVOA | 17 | 16 | |
The first thing to know is that you have to throw last year's games out. The Raiders have a new coaching staff and new personnel at key spots that change the dynamics of this matchup.
The second thing to know is that the Raiders have been one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL through four weeks. According to Sean Koerner's Luck Rankings, the Raiders have been the second unluckiest team, clocking in at 1.22 Wins Below Expected — mostly thanks to an 0-3 record in one-score games, which tends to regress to the mean.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been the ninth-luckiest, creating the biggest luck discrepancy of any game in Week 5.
From an offensive standpoint, the Raiders' new No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams, changes the dynamic relative to last season. You can't come into Arrowhead and expect to beat Patrick Mahomes — or defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, for that matter — by nickel-and-diming it with your tight end and slot receiver.
Perennially among the league's worst run defenses, the Chiefs' biggest weakness this year has come against the pass, where they rank 21st. But more specifically, they rank 29th in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers, which is where Adams comes in.
Through four weeks, Adams is second in the league in targets (47), tied for third in TD catches (30), tied for ninth in receptions (26) and 15th in receiving yards (290).
The Chiefs lost a talented corner in Charvarius Ward via free agency, and rookie Jaylen Watson is taking his lumps on the outside. Derek Carr will have the trio of Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back together for the first time since Week 2. Carr should only get more comfortable in Josh McDaniels' offense as the season progresses.
The Chiefs have played well this season, with their most impressive performance coming in a 41-31 beatdown of the Bucs on Sunday Night Football. Still, they haven't been quite as good as they appear overall.
According to my colleague Nick Giffen, the Chiefs have scored 17.3 points more than expected, thanks partly to a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown in Week 2.
Remember how I said we have to throw last year's results out? The biggest reason for that was the Raiders formerly employed defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
While the rest of the league was smartly forcing Mahomes and company to dink-and-dunk by playing two-high shells, Bradley stubbornly stuck to his single-high scheme. Couple that with the Raiders' lacking personnel, and it was like playing Madden on rookie difficulty for Mahomes.
This season, the Raiders are not only improved from a personnel standpoint — and would be much more improved if someone could find the real Chandler Jones — but also from a schematic standpoint. Their new defensive coordinator is Patrick Graham, who spent the last few years with the Giants and had success scheming against top-level quarterbacks despite personnel shortcomings.
Most notably, Graham took his Giants defense on the road to Arrowhead on Monday night in Week 8 last year and held a Chiefs offense that came in averaging 26.9 points and 419.3 total yards to 20 points and 368 total yards. Despite a Daniel Jones-led offense, the Giants nearly pulled off the upset, falling 20-17.
Betting Picks
Andy Reid has always been strong on Monday Night Football (7-2-1 ATS with the Chiefs), but that is factored into (and possibly inflating?) the line, which should be closer to Chiefs -6 (our PRO Models have it Chiefs -5.9).
Three factors create value on the Raiders in this spot:
- Having Adams on offense to attack the Chiefs' 29th-ranked defense against No. 1 wide receivers.
- Having Patrick Graham as their defensive coordinator, who as the Giants' defensive coordinator last year engineered a scheme which held the Chiefs to 20 points in Arrowhead on a Monday night.
- The luck discrepancy between the two teams, which clocks in as the largest of Week 5.
It's easy to fall victim to recency bias since the Chiefs handily beat a superior team in the Bucs last week, but over the long term, it has proven profitable to fade the Chiefs in these spots.
Per our Action Labs data, the Chiefs are just 7-17 (29%) against the spread in games started by Mahomes when they are favored by more than three points dating back to early November of the 2020 season.
FanDuel QuickSlip: Raiders +7.5 | Bet to +6.5
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