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Saints vs Raiders Odds & Picks | NFL Week 8

Saints vs Raiders Odds & Picks | NFL Week 8 article feature image
Credit:

Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.

  • The Saints are slight underdogs in Week 8 against the Raiders.
  • Andy Dalton will get another start for New Orleans, which is without Michael Thomas.
  • Cody Goggin breaks down both sides and makes a pick below.

Saints vs Raiders Odds

Sunday, Oct. 30
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Saints Odds +1.5
Raiders Odds -1.5
Moneyline +110 / -130
Over/Under 49.5
Odds via FanDuel.

Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders will travel down to the Caesars SuperDome to take on the New Orleans Saints Sunday. The Raiders are 2-4 to start the year and will need to win this game in order to have any hope of contending for a playoff spot this season.

On the Saints’ side, they are also struggling to keep their heads above water following a bad loss to the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football last week.

New Orleans has multiple injuries that will impact this game, but the scenario has created a potential betting opportunity for a Raiders prop bet. First, let’s dive into the matchup analysis below.

Raiders vs. Saints Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Raiders and Saints match up statistically:

Raiders vs. Saints DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 12 22
Pass DVOA 18 20
Rush DVOA 1 19
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 20 27
Pass DVOA 25 30
Rush DVOA 3 20
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Defending the pass has not been close to being a strength for the Saints this season. They rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed and 22nd in dropback success rate. New Orleans also ranks 25th in PFF coverage grade and 21st in pass rushing grade.

The Saints will be without star cornerback Marshon Lattimore this week, which won’t help this matter at all. Corner Paulson Adebo and defensive tackle David Onyemata are both listed as questionable as well. Additionally, Bradley Roby was also injured against Arizona and placed on injured reserve.

If Adebo is out, this leaves the Saints with Alontae Taylor, Chris Harris Jr.,  and Bryce Thompson as the only healthy corners currently on their active roster.

Adebo has been the worst of the Saints’ corners, with a 35.4 PFF coverage grade this season, which ranks 114th out of 117 corners that have played at least 20% of their teams coverage snaps this season.

Taylor has only played two games but ranks the best among CBs on the team with a coverage grade of 63.1.  Harris has not been good this season either, ranking as the 95th best corner in the league so far by PFF coverage grade.

Derek Carr has only gone over this yardage total twice this season in six games, but that is due to the way those games have gone. Against Kansas City and Houston, the Raiders had a mostly positive game script and Carr didn’t have to throw more than 30 times in the game. Additionally, the Broncos have the best passing defense in the league and were able to keep Carr in check.

I’m not worried about that happening this weekend. Against a bad Saints passing defense, Carr should be able to thrive. Carr also may be getting some important weapons back around him.


Bet Las Vegas vs. New Orleans
Raiders -1.5 | Saints +1.5


Darren Waller hasn’t played since week four but was a limited participant in practice this week and has a chance to play. Hunter Renfrow missed a chunk of time in Weeks 3 and 4 but has returned for the last two weeks.

Davante Adams is listed as questionable with an illness, but was able to participate in practice on Friday in a limited capacity. I expect Adams to play, but if Waller plays as well, this will be the first time this month that the offense is operating at their full strength with Carr having a full suite of pass catchers.

Using PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, Davante Adams has the second-best matchup advantage in the league this weekend. Adams’ matchup against Alontae Taylor is rated as a perfect 100, which is an excellent spot to target.

The Raiders’ offense has leaned heavily on the legs of Josh Jacobs this season, who is currently the highest graded running back by PFF. They likely won’t be able to be as run-heavy this week as the Saints run defense has been strong this season.

New Orleans ranks seventh-best in the league in both EPA per rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed. They also have the eighth-best rushing defense in the league by PFF grades.

According to PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Raiders’ offense vs the Saints’ defense is the second-biggest mismatch of the week in the running game at a 54% disadvantage for the Raiders.

Betting Picks

This cluster of injuries to the Saints’ secondary presents the perfect opportunity to pounce on a passing prop and it doesn’t seem like this situation is reflected in the current market. With the Raiders listed as 1.5-point road favorites, this game is expected to remain close, which should keep the Raiders from going towards a run-heavy game script.

The strong rushing defense of the Saints may also force the Raiders into more long third down’s, which will require Carr to throw in order to move the chains.

I think that with his full bevy of weapons back in tow, a strong rush defense on the other side, and a New Orleans cornerback room that has been ravished by injury, Derek Carr should have one of his best games of the season so far.

Pick: Derek Carr over 256.5 Passing Yards | Bet to 264.5

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