Ravens at Chiefs Betting Odds
- Odds: Chiefs -4.5
- Total: 51.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds above as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Sean Koerner compares his projected spread and total to the market to identify any potential value, while our staff reveals how they're betting this game.
Editor's note: Weather is impacting the outlook for this game in Kansas City. Read the latest here.
Sean Koerner’s Projected Ravens-Chiefs Odds
- Projected Spread: Chiefs -6.5
- Projected Total: 53
When this total opened at 51.5, I felt it was a bit low, but not enough to bet — especially since 51 is a fairly key number. Bettors have since flooded the over, pushing the line as high as 55 at some books, but it appears the market realized it overshot and is starting to correct itself.
I’d lock in the under at 54.5 if you can find it.— Sean Koerner
Expert Pick
Stuckey: Ravens +6
You might have guessed that the Ravens are running it as much as any team in the NFL like they did last year. That is still true, as Baltimore leads the league with 39.5 rushing attempts per game. But the passing game has been the most potent part of the offense.
Rookie wideout Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Mark Andrews, two Oklahoma alums, have been two of the best offensive players in the league so far this season. And Jackson’s accuracy has improved dramatically in just one season. He’s a different quarterback than when these teams met last December in Arrowhead.
The Ravens have used a myriad of formations this season, but one of their most unique and effective sets they’ve been running is the heavy pistol, known as Desert Eagle. Baltimore will utilize 22 (and even sometimes 23, meaning two backs and three tight ends) personnel to punish defenses physically. They will also throw out of these formations.
Baltimore has also been utilizing a ton of motion and play action later in the game with great effectiveness. It’s an offense that’s very unique in today’s NFL and one that doesn’t have a lot of patterns as of right now.
The Ravens should be able to use their power personnel and run right at a Chiefs defense that is still susceptible to the ground game. Kansas City is allowing 6.0 yards per carry (worst in the NFL).
It’s a small sample size, but the Chiefs did finish 31st in the NFL last year at 4.9 yards per carry given up. That should allow them to set up the play action to Brown/Andrews and designed or improvised runs for Jackson.
Patrick Mahomes will still get his as he always seems to do (the Chiefs have scored at least 25 points in an NFL record 24-straight games), especially against a Ravens secondary that is without Tavon Young and Smith. But keep in mind this Chiefs aren’t playing with a full deck on offense. Both of their backs are questionable, Tyreek Hill remains sidelined and left tackle Eric Fisher is now out. And secondary issues aside, this is still an excellent Ravens defense.
I previously mentioned that game last season in Arrowhead. Kansas City pulled that out 27-24 in overtime. I expect a similar barnburner, so had to grab the 7 and like it anything 6 or above. We also could see wind and rain on Sunday, which would favor the Ravens, in my opinion.
