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Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop for Bills vs Patriots: Expert Betting Reception Total

Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop for Bills vs Patriots: Expert Betting Reception Total article feature image
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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Rhamondre Stevenson.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions

Prop Rhamondre Stevenson Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Matchup Bills vs. Patriots
Time 8:15 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

For the Week 13 installment of Thursday Night Football, we have an AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. For this game, I’m focused on Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson’s production in the passing game.

Bill Bellichick has been at the forefront of the running-back-by-committee movement, but Stevenson has been featured as more of a workhorse than any New England running back in recent memory. The second-year player has notched at least a 75% snap share in six of his last seven games. Tonight, with Damien Harris sidelined, Stevenson should be looking at another massive workload.

Over the last five games, Stevenson has thrived in the passing game. His 38 targets and 33 receptions have easily paced the Patriots, eclipsing this line in four of those games. He’s been targeted at least six times in each game over that stretch.

With Mac Jones taking the snaps, it’s a good bet that Stevenson will continue to be peppered with passes. In Jones’ seven starts, he’s targeted running backs on 26% of his throws. With a passing attempts total of 32.5 (per DraftKings), it’s fair to expect at least eight targets going the way of Patriots running backs.

And with this matchup, we might see even more volume. The Bills are a well-rounded defensive team, ranking third in run defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and seventh against the pass. While Stevenson faces an uphill battle to get going on the ground, the Bills only rank 21st in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.

Overall, teams are passing at the ninth-highest rate against the Bills in neutral game scripts (59%, per RotoViz). I expect the Patriots to lean that way tonight, with Stevenson garnering his typical share of targets. I have the Oklahoma product projected at six catches tonight.

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