Super Bowl 54 Prop Bet: Which State Will Hoist the Lombardi Trophy?

Super Bowl 54 Prop Bet: Which State Will Hoist the Lombardi Trophy? article feature image
Credit:

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

  • NFL bettors can wager on which state will win Super Bowl 54.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to determine where the value lies with this prop bet.

The NFL is all about options. Option offense, run-pass option, fifth-year options, dual-threat quarterbacks, coaches who are also general managers, etc. It is no wonder then that oddsmakers give gamblers plenty of options when wagering on football.

Which team will win Super Bowl 54? The New England Patriots are +700 favorites.

Will the champion come from the AFC or NFC? The AFC is a slight favorite with -116 odds.

Which division will the Super Bowl winner emerge from? The AFC West has the best odds at +420.

Gamblers can even wager on which state will win the Super Bowl.

State of Pro Football Championship Winner 2020 (FanDuel)

  • California (LAR, LAC, OAK, SF): +430
  • Pennsylvania (PHI, PIT): +800
  • Ohio (CLE, CIN): +1300
  • Texas (DAL, HOU): +1300
  • Florida (MIA, TB, JAX): +2100
  • New York (NYG, NYJ, BUF): +2100
  • Any Other State: -160

Which state is offering value? To answer that question The Action Network has simulated the 2019 NFL season 10,000 times using player and team statistics adjusted for Strength of Schedule.

By comparing our projections to the available betting lines, “Any Other State” stands out as the best bet.

There is a lot to like about this wager. For starters, with one bet we get 16 teams that have a chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy. This includes many of the favorites: New England Patriots (+700), Kansas City Chiefs (+800) and New Orleans Saints (+900).

There are 10 teams with better than +2000 odds to win the Super Bowl and the Any Other State option includes six of them.

At -160 odds, bet $160 to win $100, the implied probability of this bet cashing is 61.5%. According to our model, there is a 65.9% chance one of the 16 teams included in Any Other State wins Super Bowl 54.

If this prop had been offered in each of the past 10 seasons, Any Other State would have cashed eight times. The betting odds suggest Any Other State will win Super Bowl 54 and the math says you should place this wager.