Super Bowl 54 Sharp Betting Picks: How Smart Money Is Driving 49ers vs. Chiefs Line Movement

Super Bowl 54 Sharp Betting Picks: How Smart Money Is Driving 49ers vs. Chiefs Line Movement article feature image
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Pictured: San Francisco 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

It’s about that time, my friends. The Super Bowl has arrived, meaning we have to go almost an entire week without football thanks to the XFL, which will surely be just as good, if not a better on-field product than the NFL.

Now that I’ve lost you, it’s time to break down how sharp bettors are playing the biggest game in the sporting universe.

Super Bowl 54 Sharp Betting Picks

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

6:30 p.m. ET | FOX

The betting activity on this game appears to be following the standard Super Bowl arc.

With twice as much time to bet, we typically see early line movement, a quiet time and then late action as the game approaches.

Things have followed suit thus far.

When I say early line movement, I don’t mean over the first three or four days. Sportsbooks instantly saw action as soon as lines opened, which, at many books, came before the NFC Championship Game even ended.

The over was hit hard by sharps and squares right away, with the total rising from 51.5 to 54 on Sunday night alone. The over barrage continued into the workweek despite the heightened line.

For the first several days, our betting percentages revealed that the over was seeing more than 80% of bets and 90% of dollars. With that said, most books pushed the total up to 54.5, which is where it has been for the majority of the past two weeks.

The spread, on the other hand, never got much momentum in either direction.

Some books have been flipping between KC -1 and -1.5. Others, like the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, have literally not moved the spread in more than 10 days — it has remained at KC -1 since Jan. 20.

Betting activity on the spread is fairly split, with Kansas City at 57% of bets and 56% of dollars. Many Niners backers are opting to forego the spread and bet the moneyline, as San Fran is seeing 60% of moneyline tickets.

We’ve yet to see any sharp action on the spread, but I do expect there will be some before kickoff. Just a hunch … though I couldn’t tell you if it will head toward KC -3 or a pick’em.

When it comes to the total, the full-blown onslaught on the over has come to an end, with sharp buyback coming in on the under.

On Friday afternoon, we tracked a Reverse Line Move on Under 54.5. A second RLM came in on that number past midnight eastern on Sunday.

The betting percentages have also fallen to slightly more normal levels, with the over now at 75% of bets and dollars. As a result, we’ve seen the market shift down to 54, with a handful of books down to 53.5.

We’re still not near the opener of 51.5, but it doesn’t look like the line will reach the important number of 55, a more frequent landing spot than 54, 53 or 52.

Early Sharp Angle: Over (moved from 51.5 to 54.5)

Late Sharp Buyback: Under (moved from 54.5 to 54)

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