A nightmare for opposing NFL defenses all season, Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards and was on pace for an NFL-record 2,000-yard season for much of the year.
Along the way, Smith-Njigba racked up 10 touchdowns on 119 catches en route to becoming the second Offensive Player of the Year winner in Seahawks history (along with Shaun Alexander in 2005).
Throughout the season, Smith-Njigba has been the star at the center of the Seahawks' universe, around which the entire passing offense revolved — and it's hard to see any reason that should change in the biggest game of the season on Sunday — and that's why he's my Super Bowl MVP pick.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +120 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +240 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | +500 |
| Kenneth Walker (SEA) | +850 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +2800 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | +3000 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | +5000 |
| Marcus Jones (NE) | +6000 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | +7500 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | +9000 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | +11000 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | +12000 |
Super Bowl MVP odds via DraftKings
There's reason to believe the Patriots may be particularly vulnerable to Smith-Njigba.
For all the talk about New England's cornerbacks, would you believe the Patriots ranked dead last against opposing WR1s this season?
It's true — but much like the rest of New England's schedule, the Pats just haven't been tested much. The best receiver they could've faced so far in the playoffs was Nico Collins, but he was sidelined with an injury. The best receiver they could've faced in the regular season, Ja'Marr Chase, was suspended.
The best receiver the Patriots actually faced was the Falcons' Drake London, who caught nine passes (on 14 targets) for 118 yards and three touchdowns!
New England had six games against a quality, clear WR1 this season, someone you'd treat that way in fantasy football. That opposing WR1 caught at least six passes for 84 yards in every one of those games, with an average of 7.3 receptions for 103.5 yards on 10.2 targets.
The Patriots play the ninth-most man coverage in the league, and elite receivers are almost always good enough to beat even the best man coverage.
Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold ranks third in EPA per play against man, far better than he is against zone, and Smith-Njigba absolutely destroys man coverage. He finished third in the NFL in yards versus man and posted an absurd 4.16 yards per route run against man, which was the best mark in the league.
The Patriots' Christian Gonzalez is a great corner, but he can only do so much. Gonzalez did his part in that Atlanta game, but London still finished with a massive line because that's how coverages work these days.
Seattle moves Smith-Njigba all over the field — out wide, in the slot, out of the backfield — and no corner in 2026 is shadowing that player on every assignment.
Smith-Njigba is in line for another big day, and his league-leading yardage total is even more stunning considering the Seahawks are the league's run-heaviest team in a neutral script. Consider that Smith-Njigba was responsible for 44% of Darnold's passing yards this season and 40% of his passing touchdowns! That's a lot of work for just one receiver.
Now he gets to do it all on the league's biggest stage.
Smith-Njigba will be the fourth player since the 1980s to lead the league in receiving yards, then go on to make the Super Bowl. And wait til you see the numbers the previous three players put up in the Super Bowl:
- 1989 Jerry Rice: 7 catches, 148 yards, 3 TDs
- 1994 Jerry Rice: 10 catches, 149 yards, 3 TDs
- 2021 Cooper Kupp: 8 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs
Not bad, huh?
It's a tiny sample, but that's an average of 8.2 catches for 130 yards, with eight scores in three games!
Eight catches looks like a good target for Smith-Njigba.
He had at least seven catches in 13-of-19 games this season (including the postseason), but that figure is a bit misleading. Four of those six unders came in games Seattle won by 21 or more points. That means Smith-Njigba had 7+ catches in 11-of-13 other games (85%).
That also means Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics).
But what if Smith-Njigba has an even bigger game? He's racked up 123+ receiving yards seven times this season and has seven games with exactly eight catches and a few others with nine or 10.
You could play an alternate yardage line like 120 yards for +210, but is that really worth it? If he really does rack up eight catches for 120+ yards, we should be dreaming about a much bigger target: Super Bowl MVP.
I already bet Smith-Njigba for Super Bowl MVP twice — once right before the playoffs started at +2800, then again at +1500 heading into the NFC Championship Game. And I'm ready to triple down.
Like most NFL awards, quarterback is the default for Super Bowl MVP. The award has gone to a QB 34 times (58%), including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls (74%).
If the Patriots win, Drake Maye is rightfully a heavy favorite to win MVP. But could Smith-Njigba steal it from Darnold in a Seahawks win?
Remember, Smith-Njigba is typically responsible for almost half of Darnold's production. What's more impressive — 260 yards and two scores as a passer, or 8/130 and a TD as a receiver?
Take a look at the receivers who won Super Bowl MVP over the last couple decades:
- 2005 Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards
- 2009 Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD
- 2019 Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards
- 2022 Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs
These aren't guys putting up huge touchdown numbers. These are workhorse receivers seeing the ball all game, catching 8-to-10 passes and moving the chains drive after drive, piling up big yardage along the way.
The average line for those four Super Bowl MVPs is 9.5 catches for 129 yards, even though they also combined for under one touchdown a game. Isn't that line an exact bullseye for a typical big Smith-Njigba game?
It's also worth mentioning that no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis last century, and that these defenses rank top four in fewest touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to RBs.
This is a passing game, and no one gets a bigger piece of the passing pie than Smith-Njigba.
He is consensus +550 to win Super Bowl MVP, implied 15.4%.
We know MVP will go to someone from the winning team, and Seattle moneyline is priced around -225, implied 69.2%. If you do the math, that means Smith-Njigba would need to win MVP in about 22% of all Seahawks wins for that bet to have value.
If you go through the Seahawks' schedule this season game-by-game, Smith-Njigba would've won MVP at least three times, maybe four or five. That means he would've been MVP in at least 19% of Seahawks wins this season, and maybe 25 or 31%.
Combine that with the matchup advantages and there's still value on Smith-Njigba to win MVP — but we can get even better bang for our buck.
At FanDuel, you can bet on him to record 100+ receiving yards and win Super Bowl MVP (a prepared parlay under Super Bowl Game Specials) at +850.
We should not be getting an extra three bucks on our +550 MVP ticket for just 100 receiving yards — that's almost Smith-Njigba's receiving line! He's had 90+ yards in 14-of-19 games (74%), and if he goes under that line, the odds of him winning MVP are perilously low.
If he did still steal MVP, maybe it's by finding the end zone multiple times — you're welcome to nibble JSN to score 2+ TDs and win MVP at +2500 (FanDuel) to cover yourself, just in case.
Either way, it's time to invest in Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Bet JSN to catch at least seven or eight passes on Sunday night, and bet him to top 100 yards and win Super Bowl MVP at +850.
