I'm up to 12 Super Bowl props for Seahawks vs Patriots, touching on a number of key players for Sunday's big game: Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Sam Darnold, Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams and more. I even have a punter prop if you're interested in a special teams sweat.
To make it easy for everyone, I've compiled all my Seahawks vs Patriots props in this story. Make sure to follow me on the Action App for any more Super Bowl player props I play in the lead up to Seahawks vs Patriots.
Super Bowl Player Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Christian Elliss Under 6.5 Tackles + Ast (-118)
Christian Elliss has only cleared this number in 5-of-18 games this season (28%), so on the surface this line already looks too high. My initial thought was that Robert Spillane’s ankle injury could justify it, since a Spillane absence might boost Elliss’ role.
After digging in, that assumption turned out to be wrong.
When Spillane has missed time this season, the Patriots have had Jack Gibbens wear the green dot and take over Spillane’s role, with Jahlani Tavai also seeing an uptick in playing time. Elliss’ role has remained essentially unchanged whether Spillane is active or not, so Spillane’s status for the Super Bowl doesn’t meaningfully impact Elliss’ projection.
Seattle also sets up as a tougher matchup for Elliss to rack up tackles. He’s made a tackle on 20.6% of opponent run plays this season, but that rate is strongly correlated with how often teams run inside. The more inside runs, the higher his tackle rate.
The Seahawks already rank 5th lowest in inside run rate, and with Zach Charbonnet done for the season and Kenneth Walker handling most of the workload, I’m projecting Seattle to run inside on just 35% of its attempts. That would rank 3rd lowest league wide, as Walker only runs inside on 33% of his carries, the 4th-lowest rate among 49 qualified RBs. Charbonnet was much closer to league average at 49.5%.
As a result, I have Elliss projected for roughly three run tackles and around 2.5 tackles on completed passes. His playing time should sit in the 65–70% range regardless of Spillane’s status, which reinforces the idea that this number is simply too high, likely due to the market overvaluing Spillane’s injury.
I’m projecting Elliss closer to 5.8 tackles with around a 62% chance he stays under 6.5. The best price is currently the -118 at BetMGM, but still in play at DK/FD/every other book offering tackle props.
PrizePicks is offering it as well and would pair it with Leonard Williams Over 3.5 (my other official tackle prop).
Michael Dickson Longest Punt Under 57.5 (-115)
Bet on Feb. 3
Michael Dickson has only four punts all season that cleared this number. I could probably stop there, but since we only get punter props for one game a year, I’m going to keep going.
Dickson is one of the best punters in the league and has the ability to clear this with ease. However, after averaging one of the lowest hangtimes in the NFL over his first six seasons, he’s clearly adjusted his approach.
This year, he increased hangtime considerably — at the expense of distance — and his return rate dropped to a career-low 38%. As a result, his rate of 58+ yard punts was down.
I went back and watched all four of his punts that cleared 57.5:
Two came with Seattle backed up inside its own 30-yard line, where he simply boomed them (both went for exactly 58 yards). Another 58-yard punt took a great bounce and was downed inside the 5-yard line, a bit lucky. His longest punt of 60 yards came against the Titans and was returned for a TD by Chimere Dike.
Given the Seahawks' matchup against the Patriots, Dickson is likely going to prioritize hangtime over distance to limit returns from Marcus Jones, who is one of the best punt returners in the league. Those punts are typically higher hangtime, lower distance.
Punts at Levi’s Stadium have also come in a couple yards under expected, likely due to environmental factors (electric substation? Kidding … mostly).
I’m projecting Dickson’s median closer to 56 yards, with around a 60% chance he stays under 57.5. His most likely outcome is 57 yards (about a 7% chance) so this could be a sweat.
Total Touchbacks Under 3.5 (-125)
Bet on Feb. 3
This number is high — roughly 80% of games finished with three or fewer touchbacks this season under the new kickoff rules.
Seattle’s approach helps here. Jason Myers had just 17% of his kickoffs go for touchbacks, below the league average of 21%. I expect him to kick into the landing zone almost every time, with any touchback being accidental.
The concern is on the Patriots side when Andy Borregales kicks to Rashid Shaheed. Borregales is already above league average at around a 26% touchback rate, and Shaheed has seen 25-of-50 kickoffs go for touchbacks this season.
However, digging deeper matters — 22 of those 25 touchbacks came against the Rams, who faced Shaheed four times total (three times with Seattle, once with New Orleans).
The Rams consistently booted kickoffs 5+ yards deep to avoid a return. If you remove those four Rams games, all other teams combined saw just a 15% touchback rate when kicking to Shaheed.
Shaheed is aggressive and will return balls near the goal line. Only the Rams have fully committed to neutralizing him with deep kickoffs. If the Patriots choose that same approach, this could lose.
Even giving them an aggressive 40% touchback rate, I still show a 63% chance this stays under.
Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receiving Yards in 3rd Quarter (-122)
Bet on Feb. 3
I’ve enjoyed attacking quarter-specific props for the Super Bowl and treating it like four separate games, which opens the door for value.
Hunter Henry has clearly been the Pats’ top target in the 2nd quarter. Whether that’s noise or not, the sample is big enough to suggest signal. The same logic applies to Stefon Diggs in the 3rd quarter.
Diggs has been absurd coming out of halftime:
- 3.92 yards per route run; 2nd in the league (behind only Puka Nacua)
- 37% target rate, best in the league
- 36% first-read target rate, 5th
The Patriots make a clear effort to feature Diggs early in the second half. Even if you heavily regress this toward league average, it’s still meaningful.
That’s further supported by Diggs simply playing more snaps in the playoffs and the Pats potentially operating in a rare trailing game script that forces more passing in the second half.
I have Diggs projected closer to 1.3 receptions in the 3rd quarter. One catch is the most likely outcome, but two catches are more likely than zero. His median yardage is around 10 yards, giving him about a 63% chance to clear 5.5.
I also like his alt overs:
- 10+ yards (+146)
- 15+ yards (+235)
There's a ton of upside with how he’s being utilized out of halftime.
Which Quarter Will Rhamondre Stevenson Have the Most Rushing Yards? 1st (+290)
Bet on Jan. 30
I've been monitoring Rhamondre Stevenson's rush attempts per quarter over the season and last week's performance stood out as an outlier. He had nine of his 25 attempts in the fourth quarter — the snowy conditions played a role plus the fact that the Patriots were mainly trying to protect their lead against an ineffective Broncos offense led by Jarrett Stidham.
The fourth quarter in general is going to be game-script driven when it comes to running backs. The Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season and led 62% of the time this season. But for the Super Bowl, they're 4.5-point underdogs and could be facing a rare trailing game script late that doesn't feature much of Stevenson rushing the ball.
I have him projected to see a much higher percent of his rush attempts in the first quarter. I have this prop projected closer to +170 so there's a ton of value here.
This prop is only on DraftKings. You can find it under "Rushing Props" in the subsection labeled "Rush Yards — Q With Most."
Hunter Henry Under 4.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-112)
Bet on Jan. 30
Like Stevenson, I did a deep dive on Hunter Henry's quarter-to-quarter usage and it shocked me to discover he's non-existent in the first quarter.
Henry has gotten off to a ton of slow starts where he's only seen a target on 11% of his first-quarter routes; he only has five catches in the first quarter in 20 games.
Obviously, you could probably chalk a ton of that up to noise, but there's probably some signal that he's just not as involved in the Patriots' initial scripted plays as much. That could change for the Super Bowl if they want to mix it up.
I have him right around 59% to not even catch a pass in the first quarter. If he does, there's only a 1% chance he stays under 4.5 yards just because he tends to get a lot of downfield looks.
Hunter Henry Over 8.5 2nd Quarter Receiving Yards (-110)
Bet on Jan. 30
On the flip side, I'm taking Henry to go over 8.5 yards in the second quarter.
That's the quarter where he sees a ton of usage; he led the team with a 20% target rate in the second quarter and he was actually the first read 21% of the time, which is quite high. The Patriots tend to scheme plays up for him in this quarter as he's involved in the two-minute offense.
I have his most likely outcome as one catch in the second quarter. He could get two or more receptions and easily clear this, but even if he gets one catch, he tends to make them count. His median catch this year was 12 yards and 70% of his catches went for at least nine yards.
DeMarcus Lawrence 1+ Sacks (+140)
Bet on Jan. 30
This is a great matchup for the Seahawks when it comes to the sack market.
Drake Maye faced the sixth-highest pressure rate of the season. That's typically an offensive line stat, but he was also sacked on 24% of his pressures, which is the seventh-highest rate, which is more of a QB stat.
DeMarcus Lawrence led the Seahawks in sacks in the regular season and he has two sacks so far in the playoffs with a team-leading seven pressures. He's who I want to take here because he should be much closer to his ceiling in terms of playing time. I'm expecting him out there for 70-75% of the snaps.
I'm expecting Maye to drop back a ton in this game so I think Lawrence is gonna have a ton of chances to get him.
Leonard Williams Over 3.5 Tackles + Assists (+125)
Bet on Jan. 30
This is a number Williams cleared 65% of the time in the regular season; he has stayed under in each playoff game so far which means it's a good time to buy low.
Williams tends to mix in on more inside runs so his run-tackle rate correlates with how often teams run inside. The Patriots rank 12th, which is above the NFL average. In addition, Stevenson runs inside at the fourth-highest rate.
The Patriots have provided the third-most run-tackle opportunities to interior linemen; they run inside often and also get stuffed at a top-7 rate.
I have him mixing in on 3.2 run plays and also have him around a coin flip to get a sack (current favorite to lead game in sacks).
Williams mixes in on pass plays at a very high rate for an interior lineman — he actually leads the position with 16 tackles in the pass game (next-closest player only has 10).
I'm projecting him closer to 4.1 tackles with a 56% chance he clears 3.5.
AJ Barner Longest Reception Under 13.5 (-118)
Bet on Jan. 30
Barner’s a bit tricky to project because we aren’t sure if Elijah Arroyo will return, but either way, this is a market where I want to fade him.
Barner's aDot has fallen off quite a bit in the second half of the season. From Weeks 1-9 it was 8.6; from Week 10-forward it’s down to 4.6 (this also coincides with the addition of Rashid Shaheed).
Barner has only seen two targets 20+ yards downfield and he’s caught both; NextGenStats gave him an expected catch rate closer to 60% on those two catches so he's due for regression on rare downfield throws.
The Patriots use man coverage at a top-10 rate — notable because Barner's target rate, aDot and yards per catch are a slightly lower against man.
I'm projecting him closer to 11.5 with a 60% chance to stay under 13.5.
Sam Darnold 3rd Quarter Rush Yds Under 0.5 (-275)
Bet on Jan. 30
If you've been watching our shows this week, you know I've been teasing this one — and now it's time to lock it in.
Darnold only has one rush attempt in the 3rd quarter on the season — that was an aborted snap for no yards. He tends to do all of his scrambling in the second and fourth quarter. In the second quarter, he has 11 positive run plays in 19 games.
The aforementioned Barner also steals rushes via QB sneak and tush push.
I have Darnold projected closer to +130 to go over 0.5 rush yds in in the second quarter (+174).
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Bet on Jan. 26
Rhamondre Stevenson has been on fire over the last four games heading into the Super Bowl, but I think we could see a dip in both his volume and efficiency in the big game against the Seahawks.
First, let’s talk about volume.
The Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season and have won six straight games; as a result, they’ve played with the lead 62% of the time this season. That’s allowed them to lean on the run at a higher rate due to game script.
However, they still ranked fifth in pass rate over expected (PROE) — if they do get into a trailing script, we could see their designed rush attempt volume to RBs specifically plummet.
We also saw rookie TreVeyon Henderson phased out in the AFC Championship Game with just three carries while Stevenson totaled 25. A lot of that shift likely had to do with the conditions in Denver and the massive amount of snow we saw in the second half, when the Pats were simply trying to run out the clock and lean on their defense to keep Jarrett Stidham from beating them.
As rare 4.5-point underdogs for the Super Bowl, I’m projecting the Patriots to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate than usual, which is very high for this late in the season.
That means I’m projecting their overall dropback rate to go up and their designed rush attempts to go down, with Henderson mixing in closer to his typical role. That leaves Stevenson projected closer to 13–13.5 rush attempts, making under 14.5 rush attempts (current line) very much in play.
The reason I’d rather fade his yardage, though, is that I also expect a dip in efficiency. Stevenson has been great this season — averaging 4.6 yards per carry — but the Pats have had by far the easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks defense ranks first in DVOA and will be his toughest matchup to date.
Stevenson led the NFL with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes. However, Seattle uses a stacked box at the second-lowest rate in the league and tends to use seven defenders in the box at one of the highest rates.
When facing seven defenders in the box, Stevenson's efficiency plummets, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which ranks 45th out of 48 qualified RBs. He also runs inside the tackles at the fourth-highest rate — essentially straight into the teeth of the defense — which will make it tougher to rack up explosive runs.
If Stevenson struggles early, we could also see Henderson mix in more, which would further lower Stevenson's volume.
I’m projecting Stevenson closer to 49.5 rushing yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 56.5.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
