Chicken wings are a staple of any Super Bowl party, and for the eighth year in a row, Buffalo Wild Wings is taking it to the next level by offering everyone six free wings if Seahawks vs Patriots goes into overtime.
As the resident former competitive eater and a Mathematics Ph.D. with an overtime model, I get to be the lucky one who helps you decide how to make the most of this offer.
Super Bowl Overtime Odds
Six bone-in wings at my local Buffalo Wild Wings run a $10.19 menu price, so that's what I'll be working with. If this game goes to overtime, you'd get $10.19 in value, but if the game does not head to bonus football, then you get nothing.
That is … unless you bet on "no overtime."
I've compiled a list of sportsbooks — and even the prediction market at Kalshi — to help us find the best hedge value on "no overtime."
If you're interested in trading on prediction markets, use the Kalshi promo code for a $10 new-user offer.
| Shop | Price/Odds |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 93.5¢ |
| bet365 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | -3000 |
| DraftKings | -5000 |
| BetMGM | -2500 |
| theScore | -3500 |
| Caesars Sportsbook | -2200 |
At the time of writing, the Overtime market at Kalshi is offering the best value at 93.5¢ after including the contract fees, meaning that's how much you'd have to risk to walk away with a dollar. That's the equivalent of about -1440 on "no overtime."
This is clearly a better price than the best offer of -2200 at bet365, which translates to a trading price of around 95.7¢ on "no overtime."
So, the best you could do to guarantee some bang for your buck is risk $9.35 to leave with exactly $10.00 if there is no overtime, meaning 65 cents of profit. And if there is overtime, well, you're out $9.35 but you "make" $10.19 in value for the free wings, netting you a whopping 84 cents profit!
Okay, so maybe this isn't an amazing hedging opportunity — unless you're Philip Rivers and have a family of 12 and can multiply that minimum 65-cent profit by 12 to walk away with a cool $7.80.
However, there is a betting opportunity I like based off my overtime model, and free wings are still very much an outcome.
Super Bowl Overtime Model
For those that care about the nerdy details of the overtime model, I've got you covered.
When I ran my overtime model, I was pretty surprised to see that it really does like the chances of this game going to overtime, because at a 4.5-point spread and with around 65% of both the bets and money coming in on the Seahawks, per our Action PRO Sharp Report, it "feels like" Seattle should be favored by even more.
But if we just stick to the numbers and the model, there are a few key factors that make overtime a possibility.
First, while it is an outdoor game, the weather conditions in Santa Clara, Calif., aren't expected to be difficult, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s, winds topping out at around 8 mph, and around 60% humidity. Not immaculate, but very, very good for an outdoor game.
Why is that important? The kicking game.
The real key to overtime is having the score stay on relatively comfortable differences, like zero (obviously), or three, seven, 10, and 14 points. Even differences of four are okay, because if the trailing team scores a touchdown, then they go up by three points, and a field goal ties it.
The kicking game is also important because if a team trails by three late in the game, you need a made field goal, and having good kickers kicking in ideal conditions improves the chances of successful field goal.
The kickers — Jason Myers for Seattle and Andres Borregales for New England — have made a combined 98.3% of their extra-point attempts (above the league average of 95.9%), and 84.3% of their field goals (slightly below the league average of 85.9%). That means the kickers don't really enhance the overtime chances, but they also don't diminish them.
Another important factor for staying on comfortable differentials is having coaches who don't decide to "unnecessarily" (in the context of overtime) go for two. We want coaches who pretty much only go for two when they are down by differences of eight, 11, or 15 points, hoping they convert to put the game back on a zero- or three- or seven-point differential.
And that's what we have in Mike Vrabel and Mike MacDonald. Their combined two-point conversion attempt percentage is almost perfectly at the peak value for increasing overtime chances.
Finally, other factors — like the spread and total — come into play. This game isn't a pick 'em, but the spread isn't lopsided enough to diminish our chances of overtime. And the total being around 45.5 points is high enough that it suggests there's a good chance either team can come back from a multi-score deficit.
Add all that up, and I'm showing a 6.5% chance of overtime, which equates to +1440 as fair odds, or -1440 as fair odds for no overtime. That means the Kalshi hedge is a breakeven bet by expected value.
How to Bet Overtime/No Overtime
This was all a silly exercise, and, of course, you don't need to worry about hedging your free wings bet.
But if you really want less than a dollar's worth of guaranteed value, then the Kalshi hedge is a perfect breakeven bet according to my model, so risking $9.35 to walk away with $10.00 guarantees you at least 65 cents of value — and doing this for each person in your family multiplies the guaranteed amount of value you can walk away with.
But there is another value bet out there.
DraftKings is offering overtime at +1500 odds, which equates to 6.25% implied odds. So, there is some thin value.
It's not much, but if you want a game-long sweat that could end up in free wings and even more money — to grab a drink or side with those wings — that's the bet to make!
What Is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
