Titans vs. Bengals Picks & Predictions: How To Bet Sunday’s Spread
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
Titans vs. Bengals Picks & Predictions
Our staff make cases for both sides of Titans-Bengals, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
Raheem Palmer: Titans -6.5
I break down this matchup in further detail here, but ultimately, it will be decided by how much the Bengals can keep up with the Titans offense.
While the Titans are converting 80% of their drives inside their opponents’ 20-yard line, the Bengals are scoring on just 50% of their trips. So even if the Bengals can overcome their locker room and offensive line issues, will it even matter if they’re trading touchdowns for field goals?
Road teams have done particularly well this season as they’re 58-46 (55.7%) against the spread. If we get more granular, road teams that have had the number move in their direction are 33-18 (65%) this season. The Titans opened as 4-point favorites and the line was swiftly bet up to 6.5-7 (shop for the best line here). If you have access to the -6.5 at DraftKings, that’s what I’ll be laying in a prime bounce back spot for the Titans after suffering their first loss of 2020.
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Sean Koerner: Bengals +7
Joe Burrow has been sacked a league-high 28 times so far, but he should have a cleaner pocket against a Titans defense that ranks dead last in generating pressure.
Jadeveon Clowney is a game-time decision, and his absence would make it even more challenging for the Titans to take advantage of the Bengals’ biggest weakness: their offensive line.
The Titans offense should have no issues putting up points, and it’s likely the main reason the market is all-in on them with 68% of the tickets and 94% of the money (find real-time public betting data here). However, the Bengals offense is more than capable of a back-door cover here.
Bet the Bengals at +7 or higher.
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Travis Reed: Bengals +7
This line has been slowly rising throughout the week. Finally reaching the key number of seven makes this one of my favorite plays on Sunday. My model originally made this line Bengals +3, but some extenuating circumstances have caused the line to move.
The Bengals are going to be without their starting left tackle and right tackle as well as running back Joe Mixon in this matchup. This certainly puts some pressure on rookie quarterback Joe Burrow to make sure the protection up front is in a good position throughout the game.
But another factor is weather: The winds are supposed to be in the 20 mph range with gusts much higher than that. This has caused the total to drop from 55 to 51. I agree with the line move, but I’m not sure it affects the Bengals more than the Titans.
Derrick Henry is a huge part of their offense, but the Titans are at their best when they use play action off Henry to take some deep shots. Yes they have the better running game, but if they are unable to take advantage of play action off of it, that improves the Bengals’ chances of stopping it.
So even with the injury and weather concerns, the line has moved too much. I like the Bengals as a home dog but would make sure to shop around to lock in +7 since it is such a key number.
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